There is a legitimate chance that up to four of the 13 FBS teams in Texas reach the College Football Playoff. Before you laugh, remember that Texas A&M is a lock, Texas Tech is virtually one, as well, and SMU and North Texas control their own destiny to win conference championships and clinch an auto-bid. Texas and Houston are also in the mix, but both hold extremely long odds. 

Ahead of the latest CFP rankings reveal, here is the roadmap for each of the six teams technically alive. 

Texas A&M Aggies 

Odds to reach CFP: Off Board 

What’s next: Mike Elko’s program clinched a spot in the CFP in the comeback win over South Carolina. The Aggies are 10-0 with a home game against FCS Samford in Week 13 and a trip to Texas on Black Friday. They can reach the SEC Championship game for the first time with a win over the Longhorns, which would essentially clinch a bye into the quarterfinals no matter what happens in Atlanta on Dec. 7. A loss to Texas likely costs Texas A&M a spot in the SEC Championship game because of tie breakers and my guess is that an 11-1 Aggies squad would be the five- or six-seed and host a first-round game. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders 

Odds to reach CFP: -2000 

What’s next: The oddsmakers are telling us that Texas Tech could lose the Big 12 championship game and still reach the CFP. The Red Raiders are -2200 to reach the CFP but only -290 to win the Big 12. With the ACC tanking and likely only putting one team in the playoff, the Big 12 has a chance to grab two bids. An 11-2 Tech team that lost in a rematch to BYU or Utah in the Big 12 title game looks like a lock if it isn’t a blowout or Behren Morton isn’t knocked out for the season. We saw the committee leave out Florida State because of an injury to the quarterback. 

The big question is whether Tech can climb into the Top 4 and get a bye into the quarterfinals. Win the Big 12 championship and the Red Raiders host a playoff game at the very least. Texas Tech would be a 10-seed or so and go on the road in round one if they lose in Arlington. 

North Texas Mean Green 

Odds to reach CFP: -105 

What’s next: Eric Morris’s squad is now the betting favorite to win the American Conference and claim one of the five spots guaranteed to the highest-ranked conference champs. The Mean Green cracked the Top 25 for the first time in 50 years and are the highest-ranked G5 program. We’ll find out Tuesday night if the CFP committee agrees. The USF loss means that North Texas not only controls its own destiny to reach the AC Championship game, but also to host it on Friday Dec. 6. The CFP committee will pick between James Madison or the American champion for that G5 spot. The Mean Green are the sure-fire pick at 12-1. 

SMU Mustangs 

Odds to reach CFP: +350

What’s next: The forgotten Lone Star State team with a legit chance to reach the CFP is SMU because someone must win the ACC and I’m not buying that the committee will leave out a 10-3 SMU if the Mustangs win the conference. That would include a win over Louisville if it were to happen, and the Cardinals are the lone loss for James Madison. SMU is in a four-team tie with Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Pitt. Pitt and Georgia Tech play. Virginia and SMU don’t play any of the other teams tied for the lead. That means a three-way tie is possible. The only thing the Ponies can worry about is winning out, which starts with a home game against Louisville on Saturday and ends with a trip to Cal on Nov. 29.  

Texas Longhorns 

Odds to reach CFP: +1600

What’s next: The Horns didn’t need to win out to reach the playoffs because we whole-heartedly believe a three-loss Texas would’ve gotten the nod over bubble teams like Miami or the Big 12 runner-up because of brand bias and how the committee views the SEC schedule. But how a team loses matters, as does the timing of those losses, and a four-score defeat to Georgia in November will be hard to overlook even if Steve Sarkisian’s bunch figures out a way to upset A&M at home in two weeks. The books agree as betting on Texas not to reach the playoff is at -6000. 

Houston Cougars 

Odds to reach CFP: Off Board 

What’s next: FanDuel gives Houston a +2500 chance to win the Big 12 so that’s essentially the odds for the Coogs to reach the CFP. They do hold an outside shot at reaching the Big 12 Championship game if they win out and catch some breaks from other teams like BYU or Utah down the stretch. And if that miracle was to unfold, Willie Fritz’s squad would then need to beat a Texas Tech program that won handily in Houston earlier this season.