Week 10 of the college football season is upon us, and November is where champions are made and contenders fade. That’s true in the Lone Star State as Texas hosts Vanderbilt in an SEC elimination game, Texas Tech travels to Kansas State in need of a win to keep Big 12 and College Football Playoff hopes alive, and North Texas faces Navy in Denton in a massive contest with G5 ramifications.

Eleven of the 13 FBS teams in Texas are in action, but only six of them play on Saturday. 

1. Is Texas a contender? 

On paper, the Longhorns are still squarely in the mix for the SEC championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff. They’re 6-2 overall and only have one conference loss – just like Ole Miss, Georgia, and Vanderbilt, schools that are obviously still in the mix. But that’s on paper. On the field, the Horns don’t look like a threat. They eked out road wins over lowly Kentucky and Mississippi State and lost earlier in the season to a Florida squad that has since fired its head coach. 

None of that matters, though. A win over Vanderbilt on Saturday catapults Texas back into contention. That would move the Horns back into the Top 15 of the AP Poll and place them in the top five of the SEC standings. The SEC is likely to send four or five programs to the CFP with five currently ranked in the Top 10 of the most recent AP Poll, including Vanderbilt at ninth. 

A 10-2 record gets Texas into the CFP. A 9-3 record might. Let’s say the Horns beat Vanderbilt on Saturday for the sake of discussion. And to continue this thought exercise, let’s say they finish 2-1 with wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M at home and a loss to Georgia on the road. You don’t think a 9-3 Texas with wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M gets major consideration over the second-place team in the Big 12 or ACC, especially considering the three losses, in this scenario, would be on the road to Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia? 

That’s how big the game against Vanderbilt and Diego Pavia is on Saturday for Texas. Win and go into the idle week with momentum and a real route to the CFP with three games left in the regular season. Lose and all the focus shifts to 2026 and beyond. 

2. Does North Texas stay alive? 

The Mean Green currently sit in a tie for third place in the American Conference alongside Memphis, South Florida, and Temple with a 3-1 record. They host first place Navy on Saturday night with a chance to return to the CFP race after falling down the ladder with the home loss to USF. Eric Morris’ squad benefits from a favorable schedule. They don’t face Memphis or Tulane, a team that is 3-0 in American Conference play. They host Temple to end the season. Get past Navy and North Texas will be favored in the final three games of the regular season – at UAB, at Rice, home to Temple. 

The Mean Green are a 6.5-point home favorite against Navy this weekend. And while running the table doesn’t guarantee a spot in the AAC Championship game, an 11-1 record would be a monumental accomplishment and warrant real discussion for the G5 CFP spot depending on how everything else plays out. It’s all out in front of the Mean Green. But can they take advantage of the opportunity after failing to do so three weeks ago against USF? 

3. Can SMU pull the upset? 

The 20-game regular season conference winning streak for SMU ended last week on the road against Wake Forest. A home game against Miami on Saturday provides an opportunity to recapture momentum and put that loss in the rear-view mirror. Some outsiders asked why SMU gave up $100 million dollars in potential television revenue to join the ACC. Hosting the Hurricanes in a conference game is exactly why. The Mustangs used to host Tulsa and East Carolina. Now, they’ll host a bona fide national championship contender. 

But can they beat that national championship contender? That’ll be a tough challenge unless Miami quarterback Carson Beck gifts SMU with a few interceptions, something he’s more than willing to do on occasion. The challenge for SMU is to score points on a deep and talented Hurricanes defense. Quarterback Kevin Jennings isn’t 100 percent and the run game never found a true replacement for Brashard Smith. The Miami ties at SMU, including head coach Rhett Lashlee, make this one interesting, however.  

Picks Against the Spread 

Vanderbilt +3.5 over Texas
Miami -10.5 over SMU
UCF +3.5 over Baylor 
North Texas -6.5 over Navy
Texas Tech -7.5 overe Kansas State 
2025 record: 28-23