Each of the 13 FBS teams in Texas will be halfway through the 2025 season at the conclusion of Week 7. UTEP began the week of action by losing at home to Liberty on a Wednesday night. Sam Houston continued the Lone Star State’s Conference USA’s woes by falling to Jax State. Entering Friday night, the two CUSA squads – UTEP and Sam Houston – are a combined 1-11. The other 11 schools in Texas are a combined 41-15. 

Week 7 is another pivotal week for the in-state contenders. North Texas kicks it off with possibly the biggest game in program history on Friday night against No. 24-ranked South Florida. Saturday includes the Red River Rivalry, Texas Tech’s first home game as a Top 10 team in over 15 years, and Texas A&M hosting a Florida squad that knocked off the Longhorns last week. 

Before the action gets started, here are my three questions for Week 7. 

1. Is Texas truly the favorite in the Red River matchup? 

Texas opened as an 11.5-point favorite against Oklahoma over the summer. But the Longhorns and Sooners are on different trajectories in 2025. Texas lost at Ohio State and at Florida while the offense looked lackluster. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is undefeated with a win over Michigan on the resumé. When the line came out during game week, most expected the team from north of the Red River to be the betting favorite. Instead, the Horns were favored by 3.5 points. It was down to one or 1.5 points at most books by Wednesday. By Thursday night, Oklahoma was the favorite. 

A quick look at the line would suggest that Vegas believes Texas was the better team at the beginning of the week. But that is a bit misleading. What that line truly tells us is that our friends in the desert aren’t sure if Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is healthy enough to play. He’s listed as probable on the injury report and that surged Oklahoma to favorite status. We think Mateer gives it a go, at least in some specialty packages, but the idea that he’ll waltz back into the starting lineup and play every snap for the Sooners at the State Fair on Saturday feels farfetched considering he’s only a couple of weeks removed from surgery on his throwing hand. 

This feels like a tough matchup for both offenses. Each defense is in the Top 10 in Stop Rate. Oklahoma is the second-best scoring defense in FBS, allowing 7.2 points per game. The Horns are fifth-best at 12 points per game. Conversely, the Longhorns offense ranks 63rd in points per game and the Oklahoma offense checks in at 45th. Vegas has noticed that trend. The opening total in the summer 56.5. It is now 43.5. 

This is a huge game for Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns. They are 2-8 in his tenure against Top 10 teams and one of those victories was against a Michigan squad that finished the season 7-5. The road win over Alabama is the only true signature win for Texas under Sark and they haven’t been great as the underdogs. Sark is considered an offensive genius and one of the better play callers in the country. He’ll need to outduel his counterpart – Oklahoma’s Brent Venables – for Texas to win this game. His offense can’t do it straight up. 

2. Can North Texas seize the moment? 

North Texas athletic director Jared Mosley announced on social media that the Friday night clash between the Mean Green and No. 24-ranked South Florida is the first sell out in stadium history. And for good reason. People with more knowledge than I about North Texas football history are calling this the biggest game in program history and it is hard to argue. Win and the Mean Green hold an inside track to the American Conference championship game. The winner of the AC is the odds-on favorite to reach the College Football Playoff. Big stakes, indeed. 

But stakes alone don’t help the North Texas football program. Any poker player knows that you gotta win the pot to benefit from the money inside it. Merely sitting at the table doesn’t pay the bills. The fans have answered the call and done their part by selling out the stadium. The rest falls on Eric Morris & Co. to deliver with a performance that matches the moment. If they can, the ceiling becomes the roof. Mean Green Nation swears it’s a sleeping giant in the G5 ranks. A win on Friday night might wake it up. 

3. Can Rice capitalize on UTSA’s struggles? 

The Roadrunner fan base is going through it right now. UTSA was 39-14 overall and 27-4 against conference peers over Jeff Traylor’s first four seasons, winning consecutive Conference USA championships and winning nine games in Year 1 as an American Conference team. Those successes set a new expectation within the fan base. UTSA won seven games in 2024 and that was considered a failure even though the program didn’t win seven games in a single season from 2014-2020. 

There is a case that regression was always in the foreground. How many other G5 programs have sustained success beyond a three- or four-year cycle outside maybe a Boise State? Not many. The sport also changed since Frank Wilson amassed a treasure trove of talent. Could the Roadrunners sign the likes of Sincere McCormick or Rashad Wisdom in the revenue-sharing era? Could they have kept Joshua Cephus or Zakhari Franklin for that long in the transfer portal era? Maybe. 

Whether this is the normal cycle of college football, a product of changing circumstances at the G5 level, or a failure in coaching and/or roster management is up for debate and the truth likely lies in each of those points of views. The universal truth is that UTSA isn’t as good as it was in 2021-23 and the fan base is justifiably upset about it. 

The loss to Temple opened the floodgates of complaints and forced local reporters to ask questions about the starting quarterback and offensive coordinator. The Roadrunners host Rice in the background of all this and it feels like either one of two things happens. Either the noise galvanizes the Roadrunners and they race past the Owls or the road loss to Temple turns into a second defeat, like we saw when Penn State traveled to UCLA after losing to Oregon. 

Rice has no such issues despite coming off a loss, as well. Scott Abell is off to a strong start and the Owls are trending up and in a honeymoon phase. They get to play free and loose. And they’ll have the confidence of beating UTSA last season at home. This game won’t be on the national radar, but the results will tell us a lot about the current state of both programs. 

Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

North Texas -1.5 over South Florida
TCU -1.5 over Kansas State
Oklahoma +1.5 over Texas 
Texas A&M -7.5 over Florida
UTSA -11.5 over Rice
2025 record: 20-14