Stepp's 5A DI Region I Picks: District Projections and Playoff Outlook

If you play in 1-5A Division I, you know you’ll be in the playoffs but seeding will be huge for these four teams as getting that coveted home playoff game can make or break things. El Dorado ran the table a year ago and the Aztecs could be even stronger in 2025 with some of the top skill talent in West Texas. The defense will have to improve if they want to get out of the first round. Expect Americas with seven starters back on both sides to take a step forward, while Parkland also anticipates being improved. Bel Air, took the 0-11 collar a year ago, the Highlanders are still a year away, but expect major progress in 2025.

There’s a clear delineation in 2-5A Division I as the top four teams in my view look pretty locked in, if anyone outside of that can challenge for a playoff spot, it’ll be Lubbock Coronado who does return seven starters on both sides of the ball. Abilene gets the nod for the district title, the Eagles offense is loaded at the skill spots and they’ve got nine back on defense. The key will be rebuilding the offensive line. Last year’s district champion Monterey looks stout in the trenches, but the Plainsmen have to replace some key parts at the skill spots. Amarillo and Amarillo Tascosa both have plenty of experience back and expect to challenge for not only a playoff spot, but the district title as the difference between one and four is small.

Aledo’s long district winning streak (127 games) is the headline in 3-5A Division I, but it may come to an end this year with the Bearcats having to go play at Denton Ryan. That district game may not mean much come playoff time as Ryan got their revenge on Aledo in the playoffs, could the roles be reversed in 2025? Richland has been to the third round in back-to-back seasons, but the Royals graduated heavy, they still have enough to still be the bet for third. The race for fourth should be intriguing with Brewer, Azle and Birdville on paper looking like a dead-heat.

There aren’t any regional contenders in 4-5A Division I, but inside of the district the play should be quite competitive. Saginaw rolled to the district crown a year ago, but the Rough Riders graduated a strong group of seniors and lost their head coach. That could open the door for Chisholm Trail who brings eighteen starters from a playoff team, but the Rangers had a very late coaching change so that brings questions. Arlington Heights has outstanding front-line talent, but depth concerns are abound, while Paschal and Wyatt are looking to contend for the final playoff spot with Trimble Tech as a big dark-horse.

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 1-5A Division I

1. El Paso El Dorado
2. El Paso Americas
3. El Paso Parkland
4. El Paso Bel Air

District 2-5A Division I

1. Abilene
2. Lubbock Monterey
3. Amarillo Tascosa
4. Amarillo
5. Lubbock Coronado
6. Amarillo Caprock
7. Lubbock

District 3-5A Division I

1. Denton Ryan
2. Aledo
3. Richland
4. White Settlement Brewer
5. Azle
6. Birdville
7. Keller Fossil Ridge
8. Granbury
9. Denton

District 4-5A Division I

1. Saginaw Chisholm Trail
2. Fort Worth Arlington Heights
3. Saginaw
4. Fort Worth Paschal
5. Fort Worth Wyatt
6. Fort Worth North Side
7. Fort Worth Trimble Tech
8. Fort Worth Polytechnic
9. Fort Worth South Hills

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS

W1 El Paso El Dorado vs F2 Amarillo

R4 Fort Worth Arlington Heights vs T3 Richland

W2 Abilene vs F1 El Paso Bel Air

R3 Aledo vs T4 Saginaw

W3 Denton Ryan vs F4 Fort Worth Paschal

R2 Lubbock Monterey vs T1 El Paso Parkland

W4 Saginaw Chisholm Trail vs F3 White Settlement Brewer

R1 El Paso Americas vs T2 Amarillo Tascosa

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Aledo over Denton Ryan