The depth of the Big 12 is outrageous in 2018. Through six weeks of games, six teams have one loss or fewer, including all four state of Texas teams. The league is as balanced as it has been in a while. Only the state of Kansas seems to be a step behind.

Heading into Week 7, Texas Tech and TCU are in a similar spot. Both have a conference loss on their schedule to a now-top 10 opponent. Both have another loss on the schedule to a Power Five out-of-conference team. Both even have injury questions at quarterback heading into Thursday.

The Horned Frogs and Red Raiders face off against each other on Thursday night in Fort Worth, and there are stakes for both teams. But more than anything, this game functions as a barometer game in Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury’s sixth season.

It’s been years since Texas Tech was convincingly a bowl team. That’s not an exaggeration; it’s been three years since the Red Raiders won more than six games. Tech hasn’t won more than seven regular season games in the Kingsbury era.

A season ago, Kingsbury saved his job by beating Texas on the road and barely sneaking into a bowl game. That happened despite a nice 4-2 start that seemed to give the Red Raiders some breathing room for bowl eligibility. They faded down the stretch.

This year, Texas Tech is 3-2 with an unexpected win over Oklahoma State on the road and hard-fought win over Houston. Losing to Ole Miss in the nonconference slate put the Red Raiders slightly behind the 8-ball, but Texas Tech can break out of its rut by beating TCU.

The Red Raiders have been surprisingly decent against the Horned Frogs in recent years. Tech has gone 3-3 against TCU since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 in 2012. TCU won 10 or more games in all of those seasons, including a 2015 barn-burner in Lubbock. So every year the two teams have been relatively evenly matched, Texas Tech has won.

ESPN’s Football Power Index rates this matchup too close to call. The Red Raiders have a 49.5 percent chance to win. Vegas favors TCU by 7.5 points, but this Horned Frog team is eminently beatable.

If Tech pulls off the win, the schedule opens up. The Red Raiders will be favored in four of the final six games. Both the Texas and Oklahoma games come at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock.

That would slot the Red Raiders right at eight wins, which would be the best regular season of the Kingsbury era. In fact, it would be the best regular season since 2009.

Of course, coming into the year, most saw Tech as the eighth-best team in the Big 12, just like last season. With how close the conference is right now, the Red Raiders could easily backslide into those limited preseason expectations.

That happened a year ago. The Red Raiders made it to 4-1, and then dropped a winnable game against West Virginia. That turned into a four-game losing streak that nearly derailed a surefire bowl bid, if not for a late win over Texas.

Texas Tech is better than that team. The defense = shut out Oklahoma State and West Virginia offenses in the second half. True freshman quarterback Alan Bowman is better than Nic Shimonek was a year ago, assuming he’s healthy enough to start on Thursday. The skill position players are astonishingly deep and balanced.

Everyone wants Kingsbury to succeed in Lubbock. That's no exaggeration. The list includes administration, fans and players. He’s one of the favorite sons of Lubbock. There are a finite amount of coaches that see Texas Tech as a destination instead of a stepping stone. Kingsbury is one of them. 

Thursday is an opportunity to build momentum and prove that the program is continuing to head in the right direction from borderline bowl team into top 25 contender.