The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season were announced on Tuesday night, and three programs from the Lone Star State were included in the Top 11. The undefeated Texas A&M Aggies checked in at No. 3 behind Ohio State and Indiana. Texas Tech was eighth and Texas was 11th. 

But those aren’t our only teams still in the mix. One of the guaranteed spots goes to the top-ranked conference champion in the G5 ranks and that’ll likely come out of the American Conference. North Texas is tied for the conference lead heading into mid-November. While long shots, rivals SMU and TCU are still alive in their conference races and the winner of the Big 12 and ACC will always have a spot. 

Here are the odds for each of our six contenders, provided by FanDuel, and a road map to how each one lands in the CFP. The tournament begins Dec. 19 with one first-round game that night and a triple-header on Dec. 20. The four quarterfinal games will be held at the Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31), Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), the Rose Bowl (Jan. 1), and the Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). The semifinals are at the Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8) and the Peach Bowl (Jan. 9). The championship game is in Miami on Jan. 19. 

Texas A&M 

Odds to make CFP: -6000

Games remaining: at Missouri, South Carolina, Samford, at Texas 

Road map: Texas A&M is a virtual betting lock to reach the CFP in Year 2 of the Mike Elko era. In fact, some books have taken Texas A&M off the board alongside Ohio State and Indiana because they believe Texas A&M will assuredly be playing meaningful football come December, whether as the SEC champion or an at-large team. The Aggies are 8-0 with four games left, and one of those four games is against FCS Samford at home.  

That essentially puts Texas A&M at 9-0 for the season. If 10-2 is the magic number for teams in the SEC and Big Ten, Elko’s crew only needs to win one of their three remaining SEC contests. The first is this week on the road to a Mizzou team that lost its starting quarterback to injury. The next is a home game against a struggling South Carolina squad. Split those and beat Samford and the game against Texas will have SEC implications, but Texas A&M will already be a playoff team. 

Texas Tech 

Odds to make CFP: -325

Games remaining: BYU, UCF, at West Virginia 

Road map: Maybe the Big 12 does get two teams in the dance, but we wouldn’t count on it, especially if there are five 10-2 teams in the SEC. Let’s say the Red Raiders win out in the regular season and then lose to Cincinnati or in a rematch to Utah or BYU in the Big 12 title game: Do you trust in the committee to pick an 11-2 Big 12 runner-up over a 10-2 or 9-3 SEC team? I don’t. That’s not a value statement because I think the Big 12 runner-up, especially at 11-2, should get in over a two- or three-loss SEC team, but I’ll believe it when I see it. 

That means the easiest and less convoluted road to the CFP is a straightforward one: Win the Big 12. Tech would need to win out and then claim its first outright conference title since the 1950s to do so. That would guarantee at least a home game in the first round and maybe a bye into the quarterfinals depending on how things shake out in the Top 4. We think the Red Raiders would be dead in the water at 10-2, so either way, Tech needs to win out in the regular season to stand a chance. 

Texas 

Odds to make CFP: +158

Games remaining: at Georgia, Arkansas, at Texas A&M

Road map: This is where it gets interesting and the books still think there is a greater chance that the Longhorns fail to make the CFP than make it. But that’s because the books have them as underdogs to Georgia and Texas A&M. If Texas wins those games and finishes 10-2, the Horns are a lock to reach the CFP. Where it gets fascinating is the scenario in which Texas closes 2-1 with wins over Arkansas and one Georgia or Texas A&M. That’d put Steve Sarkisian & Co. at 9-3 with two of those losses coming to Top 10 teams. 

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and his PR arm at ESPN spent all offseason driving home strength of record and belaboring their opinion that a three-loss Alabama or Ole Miss should’ve made it above ACC runner-up SMU last season. They are wrong and self-serving, of course, but the cynic in me believes that this 9-3 Texas team would make a stronger case. Unlike Ole Miss and Alabama last year, the bad loss – at Florida – happened two months before a selection needs to be made. 

I’m not saying it’s right and I’d probably write a column decrying the decision, but I wouldn’t want to be an 11-2 ACC or Big 12 runner-up matched against 9-3 Texas with wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and one of Georgia/Texas A&M. 

North Texas 

Odds to make CFP: +320

Games remaining: at UAB, at Rice, Temple 

Road map: Not a single G5 team was ranked in the Top 25 of the initial CFP rankings, illustrating that only one of the conference champions from those ranks are making it to the tournament. Sorry James Madison, but we believe that’ll be the champion of the American Conference. North Texas is one of six teams with one conference loss in the AC. The Mean Green’s schedule down the stretch is favorable, with their three remaining opponents combining for a 5-9 record in conference play through Week 10. Win out and North Texas could get a shot to win the conference championship game. Do that, and the Mean Green are in. 

SMU 

Odds to make CFP: +1500

Games remaining: at Boston College, Louisville, at Cal

Road map: The Mustangs are technically alive to reach the CFP for a second straight year, but the route is narrow. They’d need to win the ACC championship because an at-large bid is out of the question. There is a logjam atop the ACC after SMU knocked off Miami. Rhett Lashlee’s squad is one of five teams with one conference loss. Virginia is in first place at 5-0 in the ACC. We think the ACC is a one-bid team this year unless Georgia Tech runs the table, including a win over Georgia, and then losses in the championship game. The Yellow Jackets could get an at-large at 11-2 in that scenario. Maybe. But for SMU, the only route is to win out in the regular season, hope the tiebreakers fall in your favor, and then win in Charlotte. 

TCU 

Odds to make CFP: +1800

Games remaining: Iowa State, at BYU, at Houston, Cincinnati 

Road map: Talk about threading the needle. The Horned Frogs would need to win out against a tough schedule that includes BYU and Cincinnati and then hope the tiebreakers fall in their favor to reach the Big 12 championship game. And then, Sonny Dykes & Co. would need to win in Arlington. The only chance is to win the Big 12, and while that chance is slim, it still technically exists.