Ready or not, we’re entering Week 9 of the college football season in the Lone Star State. This week is headlined by Power Four road trips with high stakes as Texas A&M travels to LSU, Texas heads to Mississippi State, and the upstart Houston Cougars take on Arizona State in Tempe. Baylor is on the road against Cincinnati, SMU heads to Wake Forest, and TCU travels to West Virginia, as well. 

The slate is lighter in the G5 ranks as UTSA, Texas State, UTEP, and Sam Houston are idle. North Texas is a heavy favorite on the road against Charlotte and the Rice Owls are back in action with a game against UConn.

Here are my three questions and picks against the spread for Week 9. We are 26-19 against the spread so far this season. 

1. Can Texas A&M win in Death Valley for first time since 1994? 

The No. 3-ranked Aggies hope to knock off LSU in Baton Rouge for the first time since the 18-13 win over the Tigers in 1994. Leeland McElroy scored on touchdown runs of 32 and 59 yards, the latter in the fourth quarter to seal the win for Texas A&M. But unlike that game in 1994, the 2025 matchup will be nationally televised. The Aggies were banned from television in that 1994 campaign and were ineligible from the postseason and the Southwest Conference crown despite a 10-0-1 record and an eighth-place finish in the AP Poll. 

Mike Elko’s Aggies are also undefeated but there are no sanctions hanging over the Aggies to prevent a trip to the SEC Championship game and the College Football Playoff. And with each successive win, Texas A&M gets closer to both markers. This trip to LSU is one of three tough road games ahead for the Aggies with visits to Missouri and Texas still on the docket. Texas &M needs to win at least one of those and hold serve at home against South Carolina and Samford to win 10 games and punch its ticket to the CFP. To reach the SEC title game, the Aggies need to win at least two of the three. 

Saturday night offers an excellent opportunity for the Aggies to break the Baton Rouge Curse because the Tigers aren’t that good. Sure, they’re still ranked, but that is because of SEC and brand bias in the polls. LSU’s best win is against a Clemson program that has three ACC losses already. The other wins are La Tech, a Florida team that just fired their coach, and a struggling South Carolina squad. Ole Miss beat LSU, so did Vanderbilt. 

2. Does Houston stop Arizona State from taking over Texas? 

You know that meme of the Grim Reaper walking down the hallway going door to door with blood trails in his wake? That’s Arizona State knocking on the doors of college football teams in the Lone Star State. The Sun Devils beat Texas State in non-conference play and have already knocked off TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech in Big 12 action by a combined 10 points. 

Houston is our only chance left to start Kenny Dillingham from planting a flag somewhere in the Great State. They already have the Texas to Tempe hashtag working on social media. The Coogs can’t allow any more fodder. After all, enough people from out west move into this state already. 

The analytics don’t like Houston’s chances in this one and neither do the bookies in the desert, who have Willie Fritz’s squad as a 7.5-point favorite. Houston is bowl eligible after a 6-1 start and quarterback Conner Weigman is playing inspired football. This might be a level too high for the Coogs, however. Houston failed its first test against a Big 12 contender at home against Texas Tech, a team that ASU knocked off last week. 

3. Will Baylor save its season? 

The Bears walked into Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock last year with a 2-4 record and a coach on the hotseat and walked out with a season-changing victory over Texas Tech. Baylor won the next five regular season games, quarterback Sawyer Robertson blossomed into a star, and trajectory looked like it was pointed back into the right direction for the Dave Aranda tenure. This team was supposed to compete for a Big 12 title in 2025 – the sixth under Aranda. Instead, the Bears are 2-2 in the conference and underdogs to Cincinnati on the road in Week9. 

But the nice thing – and the worst thing – about the Big 12 is that anyone can be beaten on Any Given Saturday. That’s because the Big 12 is defined by small margins. Baylor’s two conference losses – Arizona State and TCU – are by a combined nine points. They beat Kansas State by one. The Bears don’t need to impress on Saturday, they just need to win. The heat under Aranda’s chair is back on and the fan base wants change. A win calms the waters a bit. A loss might signal the that the end is near. 

Picks Against the Spread 

Baylor +3.5 over Cincinnati 
Mississippi State +6.5 over Texas
Texas A&M -2.5 over LSU
Arizona State -7.5 over Houston
SMU -3.5 over Wake Forest
2025 record: 26-19