Stepp's 5A DI Region IV Picks: District Projections and Playoff Outlook

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 13-5A Division I

1. Smithson Valley
2. Boerne Champion
3. Austin Anderson
4. Seguin
5. Manor
6. Austin McCallum
7. Lockhart
8. Kyle Lehman
9. Bastrop Cedar Creek

Two-time defending state champion Smithson Valley is the clear favorite in this wide spanning alignment that goes from the Austin area down into the western edges of the San Antonio metro-area. Smithson Valley loses some key cogs from a defense that was flat out dominant at the end of the year, but the offense could be really stout with Texas QB commit Ty Knutson leading the way and two-way star Hunter Haug back. Boerne Champion brings back a solid cast of 14 starters from a 9-4 squad that was a regional semifinalist. The Chargers will also be extremely potent on the offensive side of the ball. Austin Anderson moves over from Region III after winning the district title in 12-5A Division I and winning 10 games. The Trojans will also be deadly efficient on offense, but defensive questions remain. How they answer those questions will determine just how deep the playoff run can be. Seguin, under new head coach Gary Gutierrez, gets the edge for the final playoff spot. QB Miles Gutierrez will be stepping in at QB after transferring in from San Antonio Jay and that will be a big boost for the Matadors. Manor, down from 6A expects, to be much-improved under new head coach Peter Hopkins and Austin McCallum, which moves up from 5A-Division II brings back 15 starters and expects to be solid.

District 14-5A Division I

1. Medina Valley
2. San Antonio Jay
3. San Antonio Southside
4. Laredo Nixon
5. South San Antonio
6. San Antonio MacArthur
7. Eagle Pass Winn
8. Laredo Martin

Medina Valley, which drops down from 6A after posting a 10-3 mark a year ago, gets the edge in this San Antonio/Laredo based district. The Panthers return 10 total starters and are dropping down, but there are questions, particularly with depth, as the district’s second high school is opening up. San Antonio Jay has emerged as a consistent winner the past few seasons. The Mustangs return seven starters on both sides of the ball but they are going through a coaching change and they must identify their next QB with Miles Gutierrez’s transfer to Seguin where his father is now the AD/HFC. Southside and Nixon are almost a dead heat on paper. Last year’s game was a four-point Nixon win and I expect this year’s game to be nip and tuck in the “Winner avoids Smithson Valley Bowl.” South San Antonio and what should be an improved San Antonio MacArthur squad will hope to be party crashers in the playoff chase.

District 15-5A Division I

1. Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial
2. Corpus Christi Flour Bluff
3. Corpus Christi Carroll
4. Harlingen South
5. Weslaco East
6. Brownsville Hanna
7. Brownsville Rivera

Look the Corpus Christi schools to lead the way in this district, while the four schools in the Rio Grande Valley will likely fight it out for the district’s final playoff spot. Flour Bluff was hit hard by graduation, especially on defense where just one starter returns. That gives the nod to Veterans Memorial by a slim margin. Ben Bitner’s squad has three back on offense and four on defense and the key for the Eagles is what should be a strong cast on the defensive line. Corpus Christi Carroll has shown improvement at the Division II level. They’ll make the move up to Division I. QB Seth Neatherlin leads a strong group at the skill positions. Of the RGV teams, Harlingen South and Weslaco East are the best bets to nab a spot in the playoffs. The question will be can one of these teams upset one of the Corpus programs?

District 16-5A Division I

1. McAllen Memorial
2. McAllen Rowe
3. McAllen
4. Mission
5. La Joya Palmview
6. Rio Grande City
7. PSJA Memorial
8. Donna North

Expect the McAllen ISD programs to lead the way in this loop, but the big question will be who takes charge as the favorite with the departure of PSJA North to Class 6A. The early edge goes to McAllen Memorial. The Mustangs are a consistent winner with good athletes led by RB Braxton Speights, but the Mustangs have youth with just two starters back on bot sides of the ball. McAllen Rowe could be a fast-riser this year as head coach Jamaar Taylor enters Year 2. The Warriors have 30 returning lettermen and 14 total starters from a team that just missed out on the playoffs a year ago. McAllen High has an intriguing prospect at the QB spot, but the Bulldogs like Memorial were hit hard by graduation. Mission will be in contention along with Palmview who always tends to play above their paper.

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS AND PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

W13 Smithson Valley vs F14 Laredo Nixon

R16 McAllen Rowe vs T15 Corpus Christi Carroll

W14 Medina Valley vs F13 Seguin

R15 Corpus Christi Flour Bluff vs T16 McAllen

W15 Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial vs F16 Mission

R14 San Antonio Jay vs T13 Austin Anderson

W16 McAllen Memorial vs F15 Harlingen South

R13 Boerne Champion vs T14 San Antonio Southside

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Smithson Valley over Boerne Champion