REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Refugio took down Shiner twice last year as the Bobcats made a run all the way to the state title game, and Jason Herring’s squad starts the season as the No. 1 team in the state with 17 returning starters. Does anyone in Region IV have the firepower to keep up with the Bobcats?

Flatonia enters the year as the district favorite after an 11-2 mark a year ago, but the Bulldogs have a new coach and were hit hard by graduation. Does that open the door for Holland or Hearne to jump up and snag the crown away? Thorndale and Thrall, old rivals just outside of Austin, will be in the mix. Expect a big leap forward in Year 2 for head coach Wade Griffin and Weimar.

Can anyone knock off Mason in 14-2A Division I? Johnson City managed to push the Punchers a year ago and Stockdale has been in the mix as well, but Mason has found ways to dominate this loop despite perceived vulnerabilities. Stockdale and Johnson City are neck-and-neck for the two-spot, while a veteran Junction squad should improve on its two wins from 2022.

Refugio is the big favorite in 15-2A Division I with Shiner as the two-seed despite the big graduation losses. Shiner returns a lot of guys that played a lot the past two years, but were largely in supporting roles. Who will step up to the challenge this season? Three Rivers has 20 starters returning from a nine-win team and could be a team that takes a leap forward, while Ganado will be in the mix as well.

It might be tough for anyone in 16-2A Division I to get out of the first round of the playoffs, but the district race itself should be competitive. Defending district champion La Villa is still the team to beat, but expect a big step forward from Ben Bolt, which returns 17 starters. Santa Marris and Freer expect to both be playoff teams as well.

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 13-2A Division I

1. Flatonia
2. Holland
3. Hearne
4. Thorndale
5. Thrall
6. Weimar
7. Schulenburg

District 14-2A Division I

1. Mason
2. Stockdale
3. Johnson City
4. Junction
5. Harper

District 15-2A Division I

1. Refugio
2. Shiner
3. Three Rivers
4. Ganado
5. Kenedy
6. Skidmore-Tynan
7. Bloomington

District 16-2A Division I

1. La Villa
2. Ben Bolt
3. Santa Maria
4. Freer
5. Premont
6. Riviera Kaufer

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS

W13 Flatonia vs F14 Junction

R16 Ben Bolt vs T15 Three Rivers

W14 Mason vs F13 Thorndale

R15 Shiner vs T16 Santa Maria

W15 Refugio vs F16 Freer

R14 Stockdale vs T13 Hearne

W16 La Villa vs F15 Ganado

R13 Holland vs T14 Johnson City

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Refugio over Shiner