The college football experience is much like that of a roller coaster ride in a big theme park. You wait for what feels like an eternity to get on only for the rush and thrill to last only a few fleeting moments. We spend months analyzing and projecting what could and will happen in the college football season only for it to unfold in unpredictable ways in a blink of an eye. 

Luckily for all of us, the time for prognostication is over. What we think will soon be replaced by what is as thousands of fans flock to stadiums across the country. But we still have a handful of questions to ponder as the games begin. Here are my top five for the college football landscape here in Texas. 

Can SMU, Houston, or TCU make a run at the CFP? 

No one would be shocked if Texas, Texas Tech, or Texas A&M reached the College Football Playoff in 2026, illustrated by the fact that all three are ranked inside the Top 12 of the preseason AP Poll. The Aggies and Red Raiders both made it last year. The Longhorns were in the semifinals in 2023 and 2024. Those three are the most expensive rosters in the state and enter with the highest expectations. 

But what about Tier 2? We’ll leave Baylor out of the equation because the Bears are more likely to be searching for a new head coach than competing for a spot in the CFP. 

That’s not true for Houston, SMU, and TCU. The Mustangs are 14-2 against ACC teams in the regular season since joining the conference and are the betting favorite to play Miami in the championship game. Houston returns its starting quarterback and the core of a defense that led the Cougars to 10 wins last year. TCU has won nine games in back-to-back seasons and played in a national title back in 2022 but lost in Week 0 to North Carolina and didn't look impressive on offense. 

We can make a case for and against all three. SMU returns a third-year starter at quarterback and avoids Miami in the regular season, but the Mustangs are breaking in a new supporting cast around Kevin Jennings and a new play caller on defense. Continuity and a strong portal class make Houston a dark horse in the Big 12, but the Cougars were 6-1 in one-possession games last year and maybe the coin flips start going the other way. TCU's path remains the same despite the Week 0 loss: Win the Big 12. But the performance of new QB Jaden Craig wasn't inspiring. 

My guess is one of these teams emerges as a real CFP contender by November and the safest pick is SMU. 

Can Texas Tech handle the heat? 

A loud segment of college sports fans is praying on Texas Tech’s downfall. That was clear in the 2026 NCAA Women’s College World Series when it felt like fan bases such as Oklahoma and Texas A&M were passionately pulling for the rival Longhorns over the Red Raiders in the championship series. Turn on social media and you’ll see fans of teams that spend more than Texas Tech on its roster – looking at you Texas and Texas A&M fans – acting as if the Red Raiders are the only program in America to spend its way into college football relevance. 

The public relations disaster that was the Brendan Sorsby saga only added gasoline to the fire. Fair or not, Texas Tech is the most hated team in college football. Don’t take my word for it, that’s straight from head coach Joey McGuire. A cakewalk of a schedule that doesn’t include Big 12 games against BYU, Utah, or Kansas State amplifies the angst. No team in the FBS is a bigger favorite to win its conference. 

But an offseason full of distractions either bring teams together or pull them apart. The fate of the Red Raiders in 2026 will be determined by what this summer did to the locker room. Tech will undoubtedly lean into the hate and use that as a motivating factor, but will it work? Anything short of a Big 12 championship and a return to the CFP will feel like a disaster. That’s a lot of pressure on a program that is very much new to being the hunted rather than the hunter. 

Which G6 program emerges? 

There was a clear divide between the success enjoyed by the P4 programs in Texas compared to those in the G6. The seven P4 teams in the Lone Star State combined for a 61-23 record in the regular season with six of the seven programs winning at least eight games. Five were ranked in the final AP Top 25 Poll. Conversely, only one of the six G6 programs finished the regular season above .500 as the group combined for a 32-40 mark last year. Yuck. 

North Texas was the outlier with an 11-1 record in the regular season. UTSA and Texas State were both 6-6. Rice made a bowl game at 5-7. Sam Houston and UTEP combined to go 4-20. But what about 2026? The Mean Green are set to take a massive step back after the mass exodus to Oklahoma State led by head coach Eric Morris. UTEP and Texas State are moving to tougher conferences. UTSA can’t be counted on to win outside of the Alamodome and Sam Houston is one of the biggest question marks in college football. 

There is surely one team that rises to the top, right? Las Vegas isn’t so sure. Only UTSA has a team total projection above seven wins and the Roadrunners are at 7.5. Texas State is the only other team projected to reach a bowl at 6.5. North Texas is a wildcard at 5.5. Sam Houston, UTEP, and Rice all sit at 3.5. 

The answer to the question probably falls to the winner of the UTSA/Texas State game in Week 2. The Bobcats are hosting and on a two-game winning streak in the rivalry so we’ll pick them as the best G6 team in Texas by the time the dust settles on the season.  

Would an Aggie fan rather beat Texas or reach the CFP? 

I know the obvious answer is both, but that isn’t as fun of an exercise. If you asked a 1,000 Texas A&M fans if it was more important to beat Texas or to return to the playoff, which would they pick? My hunch is that it is beating Texas. The Aggies can’t afford to lose three straight to their rivals from Austin. And neither can Mike Elko. He’s done great things in two years in College Station, but the Horns have cost his program back-to-back trips to the SEC Championship game. 

The losses against Texas aren’t just a Longhorn problem. Elko’s Aggies have faded down the stretch in both of his seasons as head coach. They’re 15-1 before the start of November compared to 4-6 after. Two of those losses were to the Horns. The 2026 schedule sets them up to fade down the stretch once again. The November slate consists of road trips to South Carolina and Oklahoma as well as home games to Tennessee and Texas. 

I believe Texas A&M goes 8-4 or 9-3 depending on if they can beat Texas at home on Black Friday. Beat the Horns, and the Aggies might get their ultimate wish of knocking off the rival for the first time since 2011 and returning to the CFP. I think a 9-3 SEC team reaches the dance this year. 

Can Steve Sarkisian deliver?  

I left my magazine stop on the Forty Acres this past spring convinced that the Horns would waltz through the SEC and into the national title game. Texas brings back an experienced Arch Manning, who was one of the top quarterbacks in the country by the end of the season. The supporting cast around him was significantly improved with the additions of WR Cam Coleman, RBs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, and OT Melvin Siani. And on defense, Will Muschamp returns as coordinator for a unit that has DE Colin Simmons and LB Rasheem Biles. 

But the time between the spring visit and the start of training camp allowed doubt to creep into my mind. After all, Texas plays arguably the toughest schedule in America. That includes a non-conference tilt with Ohio State and conference games against Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, LSU, and Tennessee. A third of its opponents were in the CFP last year.  

The 2026 season is about Steve Sarkisian. He made a change at defensive coordinator and has the best roster money can buy. Georgia was the media’s pick to win the SEC and the Bulldogs are ranked ahead of Texas entering 2026 for one simple reason: We trust Kirby Smart more than Sark. This feels like Ryan Day at Ohio State entering 2024. Texas falling short would be an indictment on Sarkisian. He probably wouldn’t get fired if Texas flames out, but there would be plenty of people across the country wondering if he’s the right man for the job. 

I still think the Longhorns make the CFP, but not without drama. That schedule is too hard and I’m not convinced Sarkisian can get the consistency needed from this team to go 10-2 or 11-1. But a 9-3 mark against this schedule might be enough to put the Horns back into the CFP for the third time in four years.