Stepp's 5A DII Region III Picks: District Projections and Playoff Outlook

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 9-5A Division II

1. Huntsville
2. Montgomery
3. Montgomery Lake Creek
4. Humble Kingwood Park
5. New Caney West Fork
6. New Caney Porter
7. Splendora
8. Houston Spring Woods

There’s going to be some miles in this district considering the trip from Huntsville all the way down to the westside of Houston where Spring Woods is located. Huntsville looks to take a leap forward in Year 2 under head coach Todd Moebes. The Hornets are led by QB Zay Adolphe, who, as a junior is entering his third season leading the offense. Huntsville will be explosive on offense, but very young on defense. That could open things up for Montgomery to be a contender. The Bears graduated heavy on offense, but they do have Oklahoma RB commit Keldrid Ben to carry the load, and there's plenty of experience returning on defense. Lake Creek has a lot to be excited about under new head coach Cale Melton. The Lions should be in the playoffs and look like a solid bet for the three spot heading into the season. The race for the four-seed will be a lot of fun. The early edge goes to Kingwood Park, but New Caney West Fork could be ready to take a leap forward under first year head coach Brian Cope.

District 10-5A Division II

1. Port Neches-Groves
2. Nederland
3. Dayton
4. Texas City
5. Santa Fe
6. Baytown Lee
7. Galena Park

This district will be fascinating to watch in 2026. Not so much because of the district title chase, which is likely to again go right through Port Neches-Groves, but the hotly contested race for the final three spots. PNG enters 2026 with their sights on a state run once again after falling to South Oak Cliff in the regional finals the last two years. The Indians have an explosive duo at WR and if junior QB Jake Ashworth can mature, the Indians could end up back in Arlington. The real battle is for the two-seed. After a disappointing 2025 season, I expect Nederland to make a big leap forward in 2026. The Bulldogs return 17 starters and they’ve got help from sub-varsity teams that were a combined 18-2 a year ago. Dayton just missed the playoffs last year. They have veteran experience at QB in Jerry Prieto, Jr., so I expect the Broncos to break through for a postseason appearance. Texas City looks like the district’s other playoff team as the Stingarees and their overall team speed will make them a difficult matchup.

District 11-5A Division II

1. Fort Bend Crawford
2. Fort Bend Marshall
3. Victoria West
4. Rosenberg Terry
5. Fort Bend Kempner
6. Richmond Tomas
7. Rosenberg Lamar Consolidated

This is a Fort Bend County heavy district with Fort Bend ISD and Lamar Consolidated ISD combining with Victoria West moving over from Region IV. Crawford posted a 12-2 mark a year ago in just their second varsity season. The Chargers will have to take the step up to Class 5A, but with 31 lettermen back and one of the state’s top WR’s in Alvin Mosley, CHS will be a force in Region III. Marshall has been a traditional power, but have fallen on hard times. The Buffs have a new head coach in Wale Okunnu and a new attitude; they should be improved but a lot will depend on their young defense. Victoria West has made the regional semifinals in back-to-back seasons. Moving to Region III will be tough but a veteran defense will be key. Rosenberg Terry gets the edge for the final playoff spot over Fort Bend Kempner based on experience returning, but Kempner will be a contender after dropping from 5A-Division I.

District 12-5A Division II

1. Bastrop
2. Pflugerville
3. Elgin
4. Austin Crockett
5. Austin Navarro
6. Austin LASA

Bastrop made a run to their regional semifinals a year ago and with QB Weston Nielsen returning, the Bears could be ready to take the next step and contend for a regional title. They should absolutely dominate this district, which isn’t the strongest top to bottom. Pflugerville is a good bet for the two-seed despite losing the school’s all-time leading passer. Elgin despite the youth and just six starters back is the pick for the three seed, while three Austin ISD programs will fight it out for the district’s final spot.

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS AND PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

W9 Huntsville vs F10 Texas City

R12 Pflugerville vs T11 Victoria West

W10 Port Neches-Groves vs F9 Humble Kingwood Park

R11 Fort Bend Marshall vs T12 Elgin

W11 Fort Bend Crawford vs F12 Austin Crockett

R10 Nederland vs T9 Montgomery Lake Creek

W12 Bastrop vs F11 Rosenberg Terry

R9 Montgomery vs T10 Dayton

The top of the bracket looks like a romp for Port Neches-Grives through to the regional finals. The only team who could slow PNG’s advance could be Huntsville. The Hornets and their athleticism at the skill spots gives them a fighting chance, but a young defense could be what keeps them from truly pushing PNG. The bottom of the bracket could be much more of a fight with Fort Bend Crawford, Bastrop and Montgomery all with a strong chance to advance. The lean is to Bastrop with their playoff experience and talent at the QB spot.

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Port Neches-Groves over Bastrop