Stepp's 5A DII Region I Picks: District Projections and Playoff Outlook

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 1-5A Division II

1. El Paso Chapin
2. El Paso Del Valle
3. Canutillo
4. El Paso Burges
5. El Paso
6. El Paso Jefferson

Things look a bit different in the Sun City at the 5A-Division II level with Andress dropping down to 4A and a Hanks and Horizon opting up to Division I. The door looks to be opened up for Chapin, which shared the district title a year ago. The Huskies have six starters back on both sides and if they can settle the questions at QB the district title could be theirs. Del Valle lost their QB who signed with Arizona State and the Conquistadores will be young, but they’ve got tradition so don’t count them out. Canutillo head coach Scott Brooks is reportedly in his final season and the Eagle faithful are hoping to send him out with a playoff push. Burges looks to be the final playoff team on the strength of a defense that brings back eight starters.

District 2-5A Division II

1. Amarillo Palo Duro
2. Abilene Wylie
3. Abilene Cooper
4. Wichita Falls Legacy
5. Wichita Falls Memorial
6. Lubbock Cooper
7. Lubbock Coronado

Palo Duro surprised a lot of people with their dominance in this district a year ago, but they didn’t sneak up on this guy who told you that the Dons were a major threat. PD will again be explosive on offense with QB Julian Reese and Texas WR commit Kyron Brown on the outside, but the Dons lost a pair of FBS signees on the defensive side of the ball. They should still hold off what will be a strong challenge from Abilene Wylie, which has 15 starters back. The big edge goes to Palo Duro simply because that matchup is being played in Amarillo. Abilene Cooper’s a good bet for third, while I’ve got Wichita Falls Legacy as a big sleeper and taking a huge leap forward in Year 2 under Greg Davis. The Leopards are ready to take that step and slip past rival Wichita Falls Memorial and Lubbock Cooper for that final playoff spot.

District 3-5A Division II

1. Argyle
2. Colleyville Heritage
3. Lovejoy
4. The Colony
5. Grapevine
6. Eagle Mountain
7. Nevada Community

There were some puzzled looks in February when this district came out as there will be some travel on the northern fringes of the DFW area. Eagle Mountain, which is northwest of Fort Worth, is located 80 miles from Nevada Community, an unheard of travel slate in a major metro area. This also shows you just how sprawling DFW can be. Argyle keeps the mantle as district and regional favorite as the Eagles have Texas Tech WR commit Julian Caldwell and new QB Hayes Hackney leading the charge behind what is always a huge offensive line. I think Colleyville Heritage has a chance to take a big step forward this year. The Panthers are led by talented QB Lane Vargas and a strong cast of pass catchers. Lovejoy gets the edge for third, but last year was a big step back. Do the Leopards bounce back under legendary head coach Todd Dodge? The Colony and Grapevine, both of whom will be much improved, should battle for that playoff spot. Eagle Mountain got a tough draw jumping from 4A-Division II to 5A-Division II with a very young team.

District 4-5A Division II

1. Anna
2. Frisco
3. Frisco Panther Creek
4. Denison
5. Celina
6. Frisco Emerson
7. Prosper Richland
8. Frisco Memorial
9. Frisco Independence

It’s very curious that the UIL made this nine-team pairing right next to a seven-team pairing when Prosper Richland or Celina could easily slide over into District 3 to balance out the district size. This is the biggest district in the region and by far the toughest as a couple of pretty good teams will likely miss the playoffs. Anna is one team that is definitely not missing out on the playoffs. Top to bottom, this may be the Coyotes' best team, even better than their title team in 4A in 2023. They’ve got maybe the top offensive line in 5A, a stout ground game, and big time playmakers on the outside. If there is a question mark it’ll be in the front seven on defense, but this is a true contender. Frisco is underrated but the Raccoons have two elite offensive playmakers in LSU RB commit Brennan Lacey and Air Force WR commit Lowrey Asel, plus a veteran defense that returns seven starters. Panther Creek moves up from 4A. The Panthers have questions but they aren’t short on talent. Denison, with an ultra talented sophomore class, looks ready for a major leap forward with 15 returning starters bolstered with depth from that group that went 10-0 as freshmen. I’ve got two major question marks missing out on the playoffs. The first is Celina. The Bobcats went through a lot of tumult this offseason and have completely changed the guard with new head coach Marc Bindel. They will also be incredibly young. Prosper Richland is the other big question. The Raiders are hoping to duplicate the early success of Walnut Grove, but you just never know how Year 1 will go with a new program.

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS AND PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

W1 El Paso Chapin vs F2 Wichita Falls Legacy

R4 Frisco vs T3 Lovejoy

W2 Amarillo Palo Duro vs F1 El Paso Burges

R3 Colleyville Heritage vs T4 Frisco Panther Creek

W3 Argyle vs F4 Denison

R2 Abilene Wylie vs T1 Canutillo

W4 Anna vs F3 The Colony

R1 El Paso Del Valle vs T2 Abilene Cooper

The top part of the bracket looks to be wide open and that may leave the door open for Palo Duro to push deep into the playoffs. The Dons gave Anna all they wanted in the area round last year before a three-point loss, so there’s confidence now they can play with DFW teams. The bottom half of the bracket is shaping up to be quite tantalizing with a regional semifinal showdown looming between Anna and Argyle; that’ll be box-office stuff. The winner of that showdown wins the region.

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Anna over Amarillo Palo Duro