College football is on our doorstep and that means it is time to lock in our official predictions for each of the 13 FBS schools in Texas. Sam Houston begins festivities with a Week Zero Conference USA clash with Western Kentucky. The other 12 programs start in Week 1. 

The Lone Star State is in for a big 2025 with four teams – Texas, SMU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech – ranked inside the Top 25 of the Coaches and AP Poll. Baylor and TCU also enter the season with conference championship aspirations. The G6 level could also produce a couple of contenders, namely Texas State and UTSA. 

Below, we pick the over or under on team win totals based on current Las Vegas projections. We landed on nine overs and four unders. 

TEXAS LONGHORNS 

Projected Team Total: 9.5 wins 
Our Bet: Over (-190)
Record Prediction: 10-2

The Longhorns face a tough schedule that involves road games against Ohio State, Georgia, and Florida, as well as the yearly neutral site battle against Oklahoma at the State Fair in Dallas. The Arch Manning era begins on the Forty Acres but he isn’t the only new face stepping into a starring role on offense as Texas breaks in four new offensive linemen, a new tight end, and multiple wide receivers The defense should be one of the top units in America and the upside of Manning is undeniable. We think 10-2 or better is in the cards because we’re not as high on Oklahoma or Texas A&M (see below) but this is a bet to stay away from unless you’re on the under, which is priced at +155. 

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS 

Projected Team Total: 8.5
Our Bet: Over (-135)
Record Prediction: 9-3

The most intriguing team from the Lone Star State might be the most interesting team in college football. All eyes are on the Red Raiders after an eventful offseason. They should be favored in every home game now that BYU is without its starting quarterback. The road schedule is difficult with trips to Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State on the docket. But even if Texas Tech goes 0-3 in those games, Joey McGuire’s group can finish 9-3 and hit the over. Our concern is cohesion. Texas Tech added two dozen new faces through the portal and two new coordinators. That’s a lot of moving parts. 

SMU MUSTANGS 

Projected Team Total: 8.5 
Our Bet: Under (-105)
Record Prediction: 8-4

A brutal schedule and significant losses on defense make us lean towards the under for SMU. The -105 odds on the under means that Las Vegas is also 50-50 on if SMU can hit nine wins. The non-conference includes Baylor at home and a trip to TCU. The ACC slate includes Syracuse, Miami, and Louisville at home plus a trip to Clemson. That’s six possible losses. The Ponies were one of the two Power Four teams to prove us wrong last year – the other was Baylor – so we’re prepared to wipe the egg off our faces again. 

TEXAS A&M AGGIES 

Projected Team Total: 7.5 
Our Bet: Under (+125)
Record Prediction: 7-5

This is the hardest team in Texas to predict, in my opinion. So much rides on the arm of Marcel Reed. The Aggies could be a College Football Playoff team and an SEC championship contender if Reed evolves as a passer. If he can’t, the schedule sets up for Texas A&M to struggle for bowl eligibility. The road trips alone – Notre Dame, LSU, Texas – are brutal. The home schedule includes Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina. An eight-win season would be an impressive job by Mike Elko, even if it wouldn’t satisfy the fan base. 

BAYLOR BEARS 

Projected Team Total: 7.5 
Our Bet: Over (+110)
Record Prediction: 8-4

A tricky schedule and the variance at Baylor under Dave Aranda give us pause, but we’ve driven the hype train on the Bears all offseason and can’t drive it off the tracks this close to the start of the season. That Week 1 home game against Auburn looms large for this bet. The Bears also host Arizona State and Kansas State and winning one of those two would go a long way in cashing the over. We love the Baylor offense led by The Triplets – Sawyer Robertson, Bryson Washington, and Josh Cameron – and we’re betting on the defense taking another step forward with Aranda calling plays. 

UTSA ROADRUNNERS 

Projected Team Total: 7.5 
Our Bet: Over (+110)
Record Prediction: 8-4

UTSA struggled mightily in 2024 and still won seven regular season games. Quarterback Owen McCown headlines what should be one of the most explosive offenses in the G6. The defense can’t be much worse than last year and we’ll gamble that a Jeff Traylor coached squad isn’t as sloppy with turnovers or penalties as the Roadrunners were last year. Remember, UTSA was one game from eight regular season wins last year despite collapses against Tulsa and Rice. No Memphis on the schedule and home games against Texas State, Army, and Tulane provide optimism. 

TEXAS STATE BOBCATS 

Projected Team Total: 7.5  
Our Bet: Under (-130)
Record Prediction: 7-5

We admit that G.J. Kinne is a personnel wizard and that the Bobcats could be better than we anticipate in 2025 if the quarterback position hits – our bet is that Brad Jackson wins the job – and if the defense continues to make plays. The problem is that Texas State was ravaged through the transfer portal on both sides of the ball and is replacing a ton of production. Texas State has gone 7-5 in the regular season in consecutive seasons under Kinne and we believe the Bobcats will do that for a third straight season. 

TCU HORNED FROGS 

Projected Team Total: 6.5
Our Bet: Over (-115)
Record Prediction: 8-4

We understand if the schedule scares you away from the over here. The Frogs head to North Carolina and host SMU in non-conference. They travel to Arizona State, Kansas State, and BYU and host Baylor and Iowa State in a Big 12 gauntlet. The away game against Houston isn’t a gimmie, as TCU learned at home last season. We’re on the over because of Josh Hoover and staff continuity. Sonny Dykes is in Year 4, offensive coordinator Kendal Briles is in Year 3, and defensive coordinator Andy Avalos is heading into Year 2. The roster is also relatively experienced and emerging talents like Eric McAlister and the Deal brothers are exciting.    

HOUSTON COUGARS 

Projected Team Total: 5.5 
Our Bet: Over (-185)
Record Prediction: 6-6

There isn’t a ton of value here because Vegas also believes the over is almost a sure thing. The Cougars could hit six wins by mid-October thanks to a favorable start to the season. Year 2 looks a lot like a Year 1 for Willie Fritz with massive roster turnover through the portal and two new coordinators. A healthy Conner Weigman at quarterback could put Houston in Big 12 contention. Find a book that will give you better odds for taking over 6.5 if you’re that high on them.  

NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN 

Projected Team Total: 6.5 
Our Bet: Over (-110)
Record Prediction: 7-5

A G6 team who could smash the over and flirt with an AAC championship game appearance is the Mean Green. Head coach Eric Morris will field an offense that moves the ball and scores points. That feels like a given no matter which QB wins the starting job. Our optimism in an improved defense is why we’re on the North Texas over. New defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity arrives from Sam Houston, along with a half dozen potential starters who played for him in Huntsville last year. The non-conference schedule is winnable and the AAC slate doesn’t include North Texas or Memphis. UTSA, Navy, and South Florida come to Denton. 

UTEP MINERS 

Projected Team Total: 5.5 
Our Bet: Over (+100)
Record Prediction: 6-6

There are only two games on the schedule that feel like the Miners have virtually no shot to win and that’s against Texas and Liberty. The other 10 games are toss ups without Western Kentucky on the CUSA schedule. UTEP has recruited better than anyone the last two years and former five-star quarterback Malachi Nelson provides an X-Factor of sorts. If he comes close to reaching that ceiling, UTEP could experience a similar rise to what Sam Houston pulled off in 2024. 

SAM HOUSTON BEARKATS 

Projected Team Total: 4.5
Our Bet: Under (+120)
Record Prediction: 4-8

Calling the 2025 season a rebuild might be a disservice. Head coach K.C. Keeler leaves Huntsville after a decade of service that included an FCS national championship and ended with a 10-win season in Year 2 as an FBS program. That’s a tough act to follow. One of his former offensive coordinators, Phil Longo, will give it his best shot. Judging the hire on 2025 results would be harsh, however. He had to rebuild the whole defensive roster and the Bearkats won’t play home games at their on-campus stadium as its renovated. 

RICE OWLS 

Projected Team Total: 3.5
Our Bet: Over (-155) 
Record Prediction: 4-8

Success will come for new head coach Scott Abell, but maybe not in 2025. Overhauling the offense from a pro-style outfit to a Gun-Option attack could take a couple of recruiting cycles. The defense should be solid with Jon Kay elevated from linebacker coach to defensive coordinator in the offseason. The schedule is tough, as well. We still think there are four wins out there for the Owls and predict that unique offense allows for an upset or two along the way.