Some fan bases are already pushing the panic button three weeks into the season, though some are more warranted than others. 

In College Station, the Aggies are staring down a 2-2 start if they lose on the road against LSU in Week 4. Texas Tech fans are recalibrating expectations after a pair of close wins, a year removed from mowing through competition. Texas State narrowly escaped an 0-3 start but the Pac-12 travel is an unknown obstacle. 

Disappointment is relative, of course. An 8-4 season at Sam Houston, for example, would be cause for a parade. An 8-4 season for Texas Tech would spell disaster. 

With that in mind, we’ve created a Panic Meter scale from 0-100 and picked the five teams we believe are most justified in worrying over after three weeks. 

Texas A&M – 80 percent 

Maybe we should’ve seen a large regression coming for Texas A&M in 2026. The Aggies lost four starters along the offensive line, its best wide receiver, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, and two coordinators from the 2025 team that started 11-0 and reached the College Football Playoff. Even in the portal age, that’s a lot of work in one offseason. 

The Week 3 home loss to Kentucky confirmed the cracks in Texas A&M’s armor that were brushed off after the previous week’s win over Arizona State. The Aggies beat the Sun Devils by four touchdowns, but anyone who watched it knew that Texas A&M was ripe for the picking. And Kentucky plucked them.  

Believers in Texas A&M pointed to a strong portal haul, recent recruiting success, and the idea that QB Marcel Reed would improve from 2025 to 2026 like he did from 2024 to 2025. But it hasn’t looked like it. Instead, Reed looks like a player who no longer has his safety blanket at wide receiver or a dominant offensive line. 

The reason the panic is so high is twofold. One, the schedule is tough. Next up is a trip to LSU. Trips to Alabama and Oklahoma remain, as do home games against Tennessee, Alabama, and Texas. Two, why should we expect Reed to suddenly improve? 

In his last 11 games against P4 competition starting in 2025, he’s thrown for 17 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns to one interception in the four games against Non-P4 competition during that run. 

The talent around Reed allowed him to thrive last year until the Aggies ran into Texas and Miami – two of the only three ranked teams that they faced last year. Most of that talent left. It’s not that he’s regressed, it’s that he needs to carry more of the weight than he did last year. In 2025, the Aggies only needed Reed to be part of the reason they won. He needs to be the main reason they win in 2025. 

Through three games, that looks like a bridge too far. 

UTEP – 75 percent 

To be clear, nothing that the Miners’ have done so far in 2026 have impacted this percentage. They’ve done what they were supposed to do through three weeks – lose to Oklahoma and Michigan and beat Texas Southern. But this panic meter rating is more about what we’ve learned about the programs on the upcoming schedule. 

Up next is an Oregon State squad that played close games against Texas Tech and Houston. The Beavers looked like a possible upset opportunity in the offseason. Now, they look like a team that could put 50 on the Miners. 

After that is a trip to New Mexico to start life in the Mountain West against a team that challenged Oklahoma last week. The same Sooners squad that ran UTEP off the field in Week 1. 

Year 3 is when fan bases typically start to demand real results on the field. Scotty Walden is 6-21 at UTEP and in need of a bowl trip. But if chalk holds, his Miners will enter the home game against Nevada game on Oct. 10 with a 1-4 record. 

What will the Sun Bowl attendance look like then? Moving to the Mountain West was something that the fan base craved. But what they’ve craved even more are wins. Those are hard to find on the remaining schedule. 

Texas State – 50 percent 

The Bobcats hoped to capitalize on the move to the Pac-12 by instantly contending and drawing big crowds to San Marcos. But the loss to rival UTSA in Week 2 and lackluster crowds – it has been hot as hell – have dampened that excitement somewhat. 

The win over North Texas was massive because it prevented an 0-3 start. A home game against Incarnate Word – head coach G.J. Kinne’s previous start – should push the Bobcats to 2-2 heading into conference play. 

The run game has looked great and QB Brad Jackson had a rebound performance against North Texas, but concerns remain defensively and the schedule only gets tougher. Pac-12 play starts with a trip to San Diego State on Oct. 3. The month of October – a struggle for Kinne’s Bobcats the last few seasons – ends with a trip to Boise State. 

Texas State’s four Pac-12 road trips this regular season amount to 12,332 miles roundtrip. Three of them kickoff after 9 p.m. Central. That’s a lot of time in an airplane time, not to mention the toll it takes getting back home from a road trip at 5 in the morning. 

We’ve seen road teams struggle on those cross-country trips in the bloated P4 conferences like the Big Ten and the ACC. How Texas State handles it likely determines if they’re back in a bowl game or sitting at home for the first time since Kinne arrived. 

Texas Tech – 25 percent 

The sky is not falling in Lubbock. Sure, the Red Raiders don’t look as dominant through three weeks as they did during the 2025 season, but the record is the same. They’re still the odds-on favorite to win the Big 12. And quarterback Will Hammond looked like he turned a corner during the 28-26 comeback win over Houston on Friday night. 

The panic meter rises for those who held onto national championship aspirations at Texas Tech. We lowered ours to matching the 2025 season when Brendan Sorsby dropped his legal fight against the NCAA. With a first-year starter at quarterback who was coming off a major injury and a defense that lost star power like Jacob Rodriguez, David Bailey, and Lee Hunter, the ride was never going to be smooth. 

Still, if the main goal is to win the Big 12 and return to the CFP, we like the Red Raiders’ chances. They don’t play BYU, Utah, or Kansas State. They get Arizona State, Arizona, and TCU at home. The two big road trips – Oklahoma State and Baylor – don’t come until mid-November. 

Take a deep breath, Raider Nation. Your goals are still within reach.

SMU – 20 percent 

The defensive performance against Louisville, the number of penalties, and costly turnovers should be slightly concerning for a Mustangs squad that is still in the ACC race despite the Week 3 road loss to Louisville. It’s the ACC after all, nothing is a sure thing and a team reaching Charlotte with two conference losses, much less one, isn’t out of the question. With no Miami on the schedule, Rhett Lashlee & Co. could run the table in conference play. 

But our eyebrows are raised towards the Hilltop. The Ponies allowed 41 points against Louisville. They were penalized six times against Florida State and eight times against Louisville. 

QB Kevin Jennings has thrown two interceptions in both road games against conference opponents, which is a trend for the third-year starter. In 13 homes games since the start of the 2024 season, Jennings has thrown for 28 touchdowns to just five interceptions at home. In 16 road/neutral site games in that same span, he’s thrown 25 touchdowns to 23 interceptions. Jennings has thrown 16 interceptions in 22 wins since 2024. He has 12 picks in the eight losses in that span.

Reaching the ACC Championship game was the goal for SMU. Anything that happened after that is a bonus. And while the schedule eases over the next few weeks, Mustang fans have a right to be concerned about the mistakes made early this season.