The Red Raiders are detouring out of conference play and back into the non-con with a tilt against Sam Houston. The Bearkats are 1-2, but Phil Longo and his team played Troy and Tulsa close before hammering Nicholls State.
Can we use the transitive property and say Tulsa is better than Oregon because they beat Oklahoma State, who beat the Ducks? No, probably not. Still, I think the Bearkats have some things that could give the Red Raiders a few problems at 11 a.m. Saturday.
Before getting into Sam Houston, it’s worth looking back at the first three games for the Red Raiders because Texas Tech has steadily cleaned up some of the things that were problems in Week 1.
The Red Raiders opened with a lackluster 33-10 win over ACU in which they had special teams snafus and struggled in the red zone. The special teams haven't been perfect since, but they’ve been much better than allowing a touchdown on a kickoff return. More importantly, the Red Raiders have scored on every red-zone trip since Week 1, going 3-for-3 against Oregon State and 2-for-2 against Houston.
Tommy Castellanos has been a big piece of that puzzle, as has the willingness to run the ball inside the 20. Cameron Dickey was particularly effective in that area against Houston.
Texas Tech has also looked better along the offensive line since ACU, creating a more noticeable push, especially against Houston. The Cougars had given up fewer than 20 rushing yards through two games, yet the Red Raiders managed nearly a full yard more per carry against Houston than they did in Week 1. Then they went up against a much better defense in Houston and continued to create running room.
Will Hammond and the downfield passing attack have also seemingly been unlocked. A late touchdown to Coy Eakin in Corvallis poked a pinhole in the dam, and an early interception by Tommy Castellanos punched a giant hole into it.
Hammond looked like he responded to Castellanos taking the first snap in week three with a calculated fury, pushing the ball to Kenny Johnson and even tucking and running when he might have taken the sack or dumped it off in the first two weeks.
All of that is to say, if Texas Tech were lining up against ACU again in Week 4, I think it would be a much different game.
That’s what I’m watching for against Sam Houston. Not whether Texas Tech wins. It should. I want to see whether the Red Raiders continue to improve in the areas that have gotten better over the last two weeks instead of taking a step back after a tough game against Houston.
Landyn Locke, the Bearkats' signal caller, is the No. 2 passer in Texas behind only Kevin Jennings, and his 900-plus yards on 108 attempts indicates that he’s a volume shooter. Some of that is because Longo is an Air Raid guy, but some of it is because the Bearkats have struggled to run the ball.
I think they’ll continue to struggle running against Texas Tech’s front. But if they can keep A.J. Holmes and company off the quarterback and force Texas Tech to bring more than four, they can attack the middle of the field and maybe even test the Red Raiders down the field.
More often than not, though, I think the Bearkats will bust rather than boom. I don’t see them sustaining drives in the way ACU, Oregon State and Houston did. That being said, those three teams did sustain drives, so maybe I’m just ignoring the facts and hoping the progress I’m seeing translates to continued success.
The trenches are where this game should really get out of hand.
With so many pass attempts and an offensive line that has already struggled, Locke has been sacked nine times. I think Texas Tech’s front will feast. Let’s get LaDamion Guyton his first sack as a collegiate athlete and go from there.
I think this game could be uncomfortable through the first quarter, but the Red Raiders will pull away by halftime and coast comfortably in the second half.
Give me Texas Tech 42, Sam Houston 10.
The Red Raiders stay perfect in the red zone for a third straight week, continue the improvement we’ve seen over the last two games and get that season percentage up over 80%.
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