Texas State perfectly illustrates how expectations alter perception in college football.

The Bobcats and head coach G.J. Kinne were celebrated after winning eight games, including the bowl, in 2023 – his first season in charge. They repeated that same success in 2024, but it felt like a disappointment considering the lofty expectations in San Marcos entering the season.

A roster flip was required after 2024 as the Bobcats lost most of their best players to the transfer portal or graduation. That’s life as a G5 program. A run at the Sun Belt West championship isn’t off the table. 

TEXAS STATE BOBCATS 

2024 record: 8-5

Overview

The non-conference schedule is tough with road games against UTSA and Arizona State in consecutive weeks. And while winning those games would be great, especially the I-35 Rivalry against the Roadrunners, the Texas State season will be judged by whether the Bobcats can break through and compete for a Sun Belt championship. Home games against James Madison and Troy and road trips to Louisiana and Southern Miss will go a long way in determining their fate. 

Biggest Game – Oct. 28 vs. James Madison

The Dukes quickly became the top dogs in the Sun Belt and are the preseason favorite again in 2025. With most of the headline games away from San Marcos – UTSA, Arizona State, Louisiana – the James Madison game feels like a chance to make a statement on a Tuesday night.

Trap Game – Oct. 18 at Marshall

Sandwiched between marquee home games against Troy and James Madison is a trip to West Virginia to face a Thundering Herd program undergoing a complete reset following Charles Huff’s departure. Marshall could struggle in Year 1 under Tony Gibson as he replaces most of his roster.  

Upset Bid – Nov. 8 at Louisiana

Texas State broke a long losing streak against UTSA and Troy in 2024. The Bobcats hope to slay a new beast in 2025 against a Louisiana program that is 11-0 against them since 2013. Texas State lost the last two by a combined 10 points with G.J. Kinne in charge. 

Can’t Lose – Nov. 22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

The Sun Belt is like the G6 version of the Big 12 in that it is a crapshoot most weeks. The teams at the bottom are more than capable of knocking off squads competing for conference championships. A late season home game against ULM will test Texas State’s maturity, especially if the Bobcats are in the running for the West title. Conference championships require winning big games, but even more than that, they demand avoiding upsets at home. 

Most Important Stretch – Oct. 11-Nov. 15

The early part of the season is challenging but the middle of the schedule is consequential. This stretch includes home games against Troy and James Madison and a road trip to Louisiana. A visit to Marshall is also on that list but the Thundering Herd lost most of its roster to Southern Miss, which the Bobcats play against on Nov. 15. The five games over that five-week stretch will determine if Texas State has a successful season or not. 

Full Schedule

Aug. 30                 Eastern Michigan          
Sept. 6                  at UTSA                
Sept. 13                at Arizona State              
Sept. 20                Nicholls               
Oct. 4                    at Arkansas State         
Oct. 11                  Troy        
Oct. 18                  at Marshall        
Oct. 28                  James Madison              
Nov. 8                   at Louisiana     
Nov. 15                 at Southern Miss           
Nov. 22                 ULM      
Nov. 29                 South Alabama