Stepp's 6A Region I Picks: District Projections and Playoff Outlook

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 1-6A 

1. El Paso Pebble Hills (2)
2. El Paso Eastwood (7)
3. El Paso Eastlake (1)
4. El Paso Franklin (4)
5. El Paso Montwood (6)
6. El Paso Coronado (5)
7. El Paso Socorro (3)

As always, the 6A district race in the Sun City will be hotly contested with plenty of balance in the top six spots. Pebble Hills is loaded at the skill spots with QB Jose Fernandez, WR LJ Bailey and sophomore TE Noah Tarrant. The Spartans have questions at LB, but they get the nod over Eastwood, which is the defending district champion. The Troopers have QB Kingston Jeffries returning and a good crop of skill players, but the front seven on defense and offensive line will be key to a repeat run. Eastlake, led by senior QB Julian Williams, is going to be in every game because of Williams’ ability to take a game over. Franklin loses one of El Paso’s top running backs and a massive offensive line, but the Cougars offset that with a veteran defense. Is that enough to hold off what should be an improved Montwood squad? Coronado can’t be overlooked either as the Thunderbirds have been knocking on the door the last two seasons.

District 2-6A 

1. Odessa Permian (1)
2. Midland Lee (3)
3. San Angelo Central (5)
4. Midland (4)
5. Odessa (2)

The Little SWC is down to just five teams for this alignment, so making the playoffs won’t be the challenge. But seeding will be crucial. Permian, which advanced to the regional semifinals for the first time since 2014, looks like they will be the team to beat once again as Jef Ellison welcomes back 13 starters. Midland Lee is explosive at the skill spots, but the Rebels will have to survive a tough non-district slate and figure things out on the defensive line. San Angelo Central had a strong season in Year 2 under head coach Mark Smith going 8-4. The Bobcats have experience at QB in Micah Smith and a physical ground game in RB Zeyvion Johnson. But if they want to challenge for the district title, the defense will need to improve. Despite being hammered with graduation losses, Midland should have enough to hold off a struggling Odessa High bunch for the final playoff spot.

District 3-6A 

1. Aledo (6)
2. Arlington Bowie (7)
3. Arlington Lamar (5)
4. Arlington (3)
5. Arlington Martin (2)
6. Weatherford (4)
7. Arlington Sam Houston (1)
8. Granbury (8)

When you have a team that has won over 130 district games in a row, even if they are moving up to Class 6A, you pick said team to win the district. That’s why Aledo is the only logical choice to win 3-6A. The Bearcats have some youth at the skill spots and questions, but Aledo’s a program known for reloading, so don’t be surprised if they are in the mix in Region I come December. Arlington Bowie has won the district title the last two years. The Vols are going to be really good on offense with eight starters back, but being one of the smaller schools in 6A, Joseph Sam’s squad does have concerns with depth. Lamar, despite a coaching change during spring football, is going to be much-improved with 17 starters back. The Vikings have the best front-line talent in the district and if they can develop depth they’ll be a tough out. Arlington expects to be improved as the Colts welcome back seven starters on both sides of the ball, plus help coming from a 10-0 JV squad. Arlington Martin, after dominating the district for a decade, has fallen on hard times the past couple of years. The Warriors will be improved, but is it enough to grab a playoff spot?

District 4-6A 

1. Southlake Carroll (6)
2. Trophy Club Nelson (2)
3. Keller Central (8)
4. Keller (3)
5. Haslet Eaton (1)
6. Keller Timber Creek (4)
7. Justin Northwest (5)
8. Saginaw Boswell (7)

The last two times Southlake Carroll returned zero starters on defense, the Dragons played for a state title. Is 2026 another one of those seasons for the Dragons? It may be as new head coach Lee Munn has one of the state’s most dynamic offensive attacks. Despite breaking in a new QB, no program gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to QB development like the Carroll Dragons. Byron Nelson is another consistently excellent team. They haven’t been able to get to a regional title, but playing on Thanksgiving weekend is definitely the expectation and that should be the case again. But the road is tougher with a likely route into Division I. Keller Central is the team that will be quite fascinating in 2026. The Chargers improved to 5-5 last year and impressed this summer winning the State 7-on-7 crown. QB/DB Isaiah Taylor is one of the state’s top 2027 prospects and Central returns plenty of firepower. The biggest questions will be how do they hold up in the trenches and can they stay healthy? Keller looks like the team to beat for the four-seed, but Eaton and Timber Creek expect to challenge in a district with a lot of balance in the middle.

District 5-6A 

1. Denton Guyer (6)
2. Lewisville (1)
3. Lewisville Hebron (2)
4. Denton Braswell (5)
5. Flower Mound (3)
6. Frisco Wakeland (8)
7. Flower Mound Marcus (4)
8. Little Elm (7)

The top of this district is as strong as any in the area outside of 11-6A as Guyer and Lewisville both have the look of bonafide regional contenders with an outside shot at a run to the state game. Guyer will feature maybe the top defensive line in the state with Oregon commit Zane Rowe, Texas Tech commit Khyren Haywood and junior Logan Lokey anchoring things. QB Carter Morgan emerged mid-season to lead the offense and the Wildcats have a strong stable of WR’s. The biggest questions will be at RB and in the secondary, but this is a team that is capable of a deep run after a regional final run in 2025. Lewisville has had some bad luck in the first round the past two seasons with close losses to Allen. The Fighting Farmers are absolutely loaded at the skill spots, but there are concerns in the trenches. How that young group matures will tell us if Lewisville can make noise in a rugged Division I bracket. Hebron’s young offense is a concern, but the Hawks are super athletic across the board. Braswell is the real sleeper. New head coach Justen Evans has the Bengals buzzing and with a ton of experience back Braswell is a major sleeper. If they falter, Flower Mlound and Wakeland look ready to grab one of those playoff spots.

District 6-6A 

1. Allen (1)
2. Prosper (5)
3. Prosper Rock Hill (7)
4. Dallas Jesuit (8)
5. McKinney  (2)
6. McKinney Boyd (4)
7. Prosper Walnut Grove (6)
8. Princeton (3)

Allen, which rolled to a state semifinal appearance a year ago, graduated a good senior class, but the Eagles may be reloading with an even more talented group of young players led by sophomore QB Ty Snell. There’s no question Allen is talented and they should win the district, but can they make a run to the state title game? Prosper is fresh off an 11-2 campaign, but they also lost a great senior class and the Eagles are trying to remain at the top of the heap despite the opening of another high school in Prosper ISD, which will cut into their depth once again. Prosper Rock Hill and Jesuit, both playoff teams a year ago, should secure the other playoff spots, but look for McKinney and McKinney Boyd to be much-improved, while Walnut Grove is a mystery making the move from 5A-Division II all the way up to 6A.

District 7-6A 

1. Coppell (3)
2. Lake Highlands (5)
3. Richardson Berkner (8)
4. Plano (4)
5. Richardson (6)
6. Plano East (2)
7. Richardson Pearce (7)
8. Plano West (1)

There’s a lot of intrigue in this district, but not at the top where the Coppell Cowboys are expected to run the table in 7-6A. Coppell returns 15 starters from a team that advanced to the regional semifinals in back-to-back seasons. QB Carter Zinglemann is one of the state’s top signal-callers and he’s got a bevy of experienced weapons at his disposal. Spots two through six are wide open; any of the teams in this jumble could beat anyone on any given night and each has their own set of strengths. Lake Highlands has the playoff pedigree and one of the best groups of LB’s in the DFW area. Berkner, which made the area playoffs a year ago, is loaded with experience with 18 returning starters, but the Rams don’t have much depth. Plano has the returning skill talent and good numbers, but they are young on the defensive line. Richardson has made the area playoffs the last two seasons, but the Eagles have some key questions at the skill spots on offense and in the secondary. Plano East has maybe one of the most dynamic young RB’s in the state in Treyce Seldon and good talent coming from a JV that was 7-2-1.

District 8-6A 

1. Euless Trinity (1)
2. South Grand Prairie (2)
3. Hurst Bell (3)
4. Haltom (5)
5. Grand Prairie (4)
6. Irving MacArthur (6)
7. Irving (8)
8. Irving Nimitz (7)

This district rekindles the days of the 2010s when HEB, Irving and Grand Prairie ISD’s were almost always paired together in some entertaining districts. The teams in this loop aren’t quite the powerhouses they used to be, but expect very competitive football top to bottom. Trinity gets the edge as the team to beat despite a surprise early playoff exit a year ago. The Trojans bring back an impressive 40 lettermen and they have depth. South Grand Prairie will be talented but very young, while Hurst Bell seems ready to break a playoff drought that goes back to 2013. Haltom had made back-to-back playoff appearances. The Buffs look poised for three in a row, but keep your eye on Grand Prairie, which could take a big step forward with 16 starters back.

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS AND PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

DIVISION I

W1 El Paso Pebble Hills vs R2 Midland Lee

W3 Arlington Lamar vs R4 Keller

W5 Lewisville vs R6 Prosper

W7 Coppell vs R8 South Grand Prairie

W2 Odessa Permian vs R1 El Paso Eastlake

W4 Trophy Club Nelson vs R3 Arlington

W6 Allen vs R5 Lewisville Hebron

W8 Euless Trinity vs R7 Plano

At the top of the bracket, the area round matchup with Coppell and Lewisville should be fun considering they’ve spent the past four years as district rivals. The playoff matchup potentially would be a lot off fun as well. Odessa Permian has a manageable path to the third round to represent West Texas, but a matchup with Allen would likely be the end of the road. Allen and Coppell in a regional final would be absolutely epic.

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Allen over Coppell

DIVISION II

W1 El Paso Eastwood vs R2 Midland

W3 Aledo vs R4 Keller Central

W5 Denton Guyer vs R6 Dallas Jesuit

W7 Lake Highlands vs R8 Haltom

W2 San Angelo Central vs R1 El Paso Franklin

W4 Southlake Carroll vs R3 Arlington Bowie

W6 Prosper Rock Hill vs R5 Denton Braswell

W8 Hurst Bell vs R7 Richardson Berkner

We look almost destined for an Aledo-Denton Guyer showdown Thanksgiving weekend at the top of the bracket. Anytime these two teams play it’s almost always an absolute barn-burner. Carroll should roll into a regional final as the bottom of the bracket just doesn’t look like it presents much of a test for the Dragons.

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Division II

Southlake Carroll over Denton Guyer