Stepp's 3A DII Region IV Picks: District Projections and Playoff Outlook

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 13-3A Division II

1. Lexington
2. Rogers
3. Schulenburg
4. Anderson-Shiro
5. Thrall
6. Florence

There are a lot of questions in this district going into 2026, but despite the graduation of a Division I signal-caller, Lexington takes the mantle as the favorite once again. The Eagles are led by QB Chris Smith and RB/DB Colten Smith; those two and their exploits should be enough to hold off Rogers, which has some major questions on the offensive line after losing all five starters. Schulenburg jumps back to 3A after a trip to the area playoffs in 2A-Division I last year. The Shorthorns return more experience than Lexington or Rogers with 13 starters back, but is that enough to put them in the top two? Anderson-Shiro has been knocking heads with the likes of Newton and Woodville in East Texas the past few alignments. The Owls should have enough to hold off a veteran Thrall squad that returns eight starters on both sides of the ball.

District 14-3A Division II

1. Tidehaven
2. East Bernard
3. Wallis Brazos
4. Rice Consolidated
5. Vanderbilt Industrial
6. Van Vleck
7. Boling

Top to bottom, there may not be a deeper district in 3A-Division II than this meat grinder that is headlined by two squads that played for the regional title a year ago in Tidehaven and East Bernard. A veteran Tidehaven squad demolished East Bernard in the regular season meeting in 2025, but EBHS made a miraculous late comeback in the playoffs to stun the heavily-favored Tigers. Both teams bring a lot back on defense. Tidehaven’s young offensive talent is the difference here as they get the edge. Don’t be surprised if these two meet up again in the regional finals. Patrick Oliver’s done a great job at Brazos and with eight back on both sides of the ball from a team that went 8-3 a year ago. The Cougars are the pick for the three-seed. If it weren’t for East Bernard and Tidehaven, the Cougars might be a regional threat. The battle for fourth will be quite fascinating as all four teams left can make a decent case. I went with Rice Consolidated. The Raiders have 10 starters back on both sides of the ball and one of the region’s most exciting players in ATH Kordae Johnson.

District 15-3A Division II

1. Blanco
2. Poth
3. Comfort
4. Stockdale
5. Nixon-Smiley
6. Karnes City
7. San Antonio YMLA

Blanco and Poth were both district champions a year ago so when they meet up something has to give. We are leaning to Blanco as having the edge in his matchup. Year 2 under head coach Kent Walker could result in a major increase in offensive production for the Panthers in that hard to slow down Slot-T offense. Poth also has major questions as the Pirates look to replace an all-state QB and eight starters on defense. The real intrigue here could be the four-way race for the final two playoff spots. Comfort, a playoff team a year ago, returns half their starters. But Stockdale, fresh off an area round playoff appearance, will be right in the thick of things. Karnes City was a playoff team a year ago, but the Badgers were hit hard by graduation. Nixon-Smiley and its 15 returning starters is just on the outside looking in of the playoff race, but they are the best bet to be a party crasher.

District 16-3A Division II

1. George West
2. Cotulla
3. Santa Rosa
4. Hebbronville
5. Odem
6. Falfurrias

The top of this district is definitely up for grabs, but I’m going with the defending champion in George West, which does bring back six starters on defense from an 11-1 squad. If the Longhorns can replace eight starters lost on offense they’ll be the pick. If GWHS falls off, Cotulla could be ready to pounce as the Cowboys return eight starters on both sides of the ball from an area round playoff team. Santa Rosa and Odem were playoff teams a year ago. While SRHS returns a good cast with five back on both sides of the ball, Odem suffered some heavy graduation losses on offense. Does that open the door for Hebbronville, which has 10 starters back on offense and seven on defense?

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS AND PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

W13 Lexington vs F14 Rice Consolidated

R16 Cotulla vs T15 Comfort

W14 Tidehaven vs F13 Anderson-Shiro

R15 Poth vs T16 Santa Rosa

W15 Blanco vs F16 Hebbronville

R14 East Bernard vs T13 Schulenburg

W16 George West vs F15 Stockdale

R13 Rogers vs T14 Wallis Brazos

All roads lead through 14-3A Division II as there’s a greater than zero chance we get a Tidehaven vs. East Bernard regional final rematch. However, don’t be surprised if Blanco makes a big push and emerges as a contender in Year 2 of the system. If you are looking for a sleeper, Wallis Brazos may fit the bill as the Cougars have a potentially manageable route into Thanksgiving weekend. Those potential area round matchups between the winners of 14 and 15 and the runner-ups in 14-15 should be among the best area round games in the state.

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Tidehaven over Blanco