The games are listed in order of largest classification to smallest.

Duncanville (10-1) v Waxahachie (11-1)

Previous Meeting: Waxahachie 28, Duncanville 27 on September 19

Waxahachie storming back from down 27-9 midway through the third quarter to knock off No. 2-ranked Duncanville was the signature win of the Shane Tolleson era. A former defensive coordinator for Denton Ryan’s state championship team, Tolleson’s ball club held Duncanville to fewer than 20 rushing yards in the second half. Texas A&M safety commit JayQuan Snell had the season’s hardest hit in the biggest moment when he stuffed Duncanville’s 4th-and-2 attempt to win the game. 

I assure you, I’m not crazy for what I’m about to say: Waxahachie may have more Power Four recruits on its roster than Duncanville. Duncanville doesn’t have the five-star QB and WR like last year, but the coaching staff has gotten creative in getting TCU WR commit Ayson Theus involved in the run game with direct snaps. And, the defensive line is arguably the state’s best with two SEC defensive ends in KJ Ford (Florida) and Landon Barnes (Ole Miss).

But Matt Stepp said on this week’s Tep and Stepp that Waxahachie beating Duncanville twice in one season would be among the most impressive things he’s ever seen in high school football. I think it’s too monumental a task. 

My Pick: Duncanville 35, Waxahachie 28

Humble Summer Creek (12-1) v Sheldon C.E. King (11-2)

Previous Meeting: C.E. King 42, Summer Creek 28

Sheldon C.E. King racing out to a 42-0 halftime lead on Humble Summer Creek shifted the team’s narrative from electric offense to state championship contender. The Panthers have one of the deepest skill position groups in Texas. Rice RB commit Dionne Simms has rushed for 1,440 yards and 21 touchdowns, while RBs Antwon Sanders and A’Rhiyan Montgomery have rushed for over 700 yards each. Sophomore WR Dillon Mitchell is arguably the fastest player in Texas.

These teams have had different paths to the 6A DII Region III Final. C.E. King has outscored opponents 159-13 in the playoffs, while Summer Creek beat Katy by one point after a 4th-and-8 game-winning TD pass from Noah Spinks to Trenton Thomas.

Summer Creek overcame a 14-0 deficit and a 21-7 deficit against Katy. C.E. King might be too fast to catch from behind if Summer Creek allows them to get off to the same quick start. Just look at the regular season game for evidence. I don’t think Summer Creek makes the same mistake.

My Pick: Humble Summer Creek 48, Sheldon C.E. King 41

Austin Vandegrift (11-2) v Dripping Springs (12-1)

Previous Meeting: Dripping Springs 41, Vandegrift 14 on August 29

If Austin Vandegrift was sleep walking entering the 2025 season, Dripping Springs dunked the defending state champions in a polar plunge with a 41-14 blowout. The game was a coming-out party for Dripping Springs junior QB Chase Ames, who has thrown for 3,323 yards, 45 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on an efficient 71 percent completion rate. Three different receivers have over 750 yards.

But Austin Vandegrift head coach Drew Sanders, a former defensive coordinator, has turned his unit around. Since Week One, the Vipers are allowing just 11.58 points per game, including a 16-14 Round One win over a high-powered Austin Westlake offense.

Dripping Springs HC Galen Zimmerman has had four double-digit win seasons in the last five years, but his Tigers have never made the state semifinals. Do they break the glass ceiling this week? I say yes.

My Pick: Dripping Springs 31, Austin Vandegrift 24

Denton Ryan (12-1) v Aledo (13-0)

Previous Meeting: Aledo 15, Denton Ryan 14 on 

Denton Ryan beat Aledo 31-21 in last year’s Regional Final, but Aledo has the most recent win after a 15-14 defensive slugfest in Week 6 in which the Bearcats forced a safety on the opening drive that wound up making the difference. 

But since that matchup, Aledo’s offense is averaging 65.7 points per game. Senior WR and Notre Dame signee Kaydon Finley has been unlocked in the back half of the season with 61 receptions for 1,121 yards and 17 touchdowns. Aledo’s defense has only allowed 22 points total since playing Denton Ryan.  

Aledo has not lost to the same team in consecutive years since Everman in 2007-08. I think that streak continues.

My Pick: Aledo 28, Denton Ryan 21

Port Arthur Memorial (13-0) v Barbers Hill (10-3)

Previous Meeting: Port Arthur Memorial 34, Barbers Hill 6 on October 10

Barbers Hill has made its first Regional Final since 1976 in storybook fashion. Last week, the Eagles beat Pflugerville Weiss in overtime on a botched field goal snap. Port Arthur Memorial, meanwhile, has steamrolled its way to a 13-0 record, which included a 34-6 dismantling over Barbers Hill in Week 7.

Barbers Hill feels it’ll have a better chance in the rematch. The Eagles, who entered the year with three returning starters on offense, were playing at times with zero returning starters due to health issues. First-year head coach Cody Simper has also added new wrinkles to the offense as the season has worn on. 

But will it be enough to stop TCU RB signee Amante Martin and Texas A&M LB signee Tank King? No team has cracked the code yet.

My Pick: Port Arthur Memorial 41, Barbers Hill 21

Smithson Valley (12-1) v New Braunfels (11-2)

Previous Meeting: Smithson Valley 27, New Braunfels 14 on October 24

Smithson Valley head coach Larry Hill won his long-awaited first state championship last season after four tries. Some in the San Antonio area believe this Smithson Valley defense is even stronger. The Rangers have allowed over 20 points in a game just once (Week 2’s 30-21 loss to San Antonio Brennan). The defensive line, headlined by SMU DE signee Hudson Woods and UTEP NG commit Justin Roberts, is lights out. 

New Braunfels must play a clean game to upset Smithson Valley. In the regular season, an interception set Smithson Valley up at the five-yard line going in. Then, the ensuing drive was fumbled away on the one-yard line. 

New Braunfels can’t afford a mistake, but I think this Smithson Valley defense is too good not to force one.

My Pick: Smithson Valley 30, New Braunfels 17

Richmond Randle (13-0) v Iowa Colony (12-1)

Previous Meeting: Randle 49, Iowa Colony 42 on September 25

Iowa Colony is 24-3 in the last two seasons. The three losses are all to Richmond Randle. The most recent loss in late September was the most gut-wrenching. Iowa Colony built a 21-0 lead off of two fumbles from Richmond Randle’s star RB Landen Williams-Callis, only to watch Williams-Callis respond with 342 yards and six touchdowns. 

Iowa Colony has been close in every matchup - is this the week it slays the boogeyman? The program sees Randle a week after the Lions set a Class 5A regional semifinal record with 83 points against Bastrop. 

The odds say Iowa Colony has to win one of these, right? I refuse to pick against Williams-Callis and the Lions.

My Pick: Richmond Randle 35, Iowa Colony 31

Boerne (12-1) v Alamo Heights (12-1)

Previous Meeting: Boerne 37, Alamo Heights 35 on September 26

Alamo Heights has an opportunity to avenge its one loss of the year this weekend. Boerne handed the Mules their first regular-season loss since Week 1 of the 2022 season with a two-point nail-biter in late September.

The Greyhounds are back in the Regional Final for the third time in four seasons despite losing head coach Che Hendrix and his son, QB Hank Hendrix, who led Class 5A in passing yards, in February to Arkansas. Hendrix’s former defensive coordinator, Brett Sawyer, has done a remarkable job in Year One. Junior QB Grant Sweeney has been a revelation after moving in from TMI Episcopal, throwing for 3,675 yards and 34 touchdowns while leading the Greyhounds with 905 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. 

But Alamo Heights has some offensive firepower itself with RB DK Garza, who has over 3,000 rushing yards and 40 touchdowns on the season. Can Boerne limit him enough to beat Alamo Heights a second time this season?

My Pick: Alamo Heights 30, Boerne 27

Athens (11-2) v Carthage (13-0)

Previous Meeting: Carthage 61, Athens 56 on October 17

The first matchup between these two teams featured 117 total points and almost 1,000 yards of total offense as Carthage escaped with its 49-game district winning streak intact. But Athens QB David Richardson had one of the best statistical performances against Carthage since Patrick Mahomes at Whitehouse, throwing for 354 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Did Athens come up short in its best chance to beat Carthage? Or did it expose fundamental flaws in the defense that it can exploit again? When you win as much as Carthage does, games you win by less than you believe you should end up morphing into revenge games. That’s a scary thought.

My Pick: Carthage 56, Athens 34

West Orange-Stark (10-3) v Waco La Vega (11-2)

Previous Meeting: La Vega 44, WO-S 20 on September 12

Most games on this list are between district rivals, but Waco La Vega and West Orange-Stark met in a non-district Week 3 game. West Orange-Stark’s 44-20 loss dropped it to 1-2 on the year, but served as a turning point for the season. The Mustangs have since gone 9-1 and were unscathed through District 9-4A DII play.

But Waco La Vega, like a classic Don Hyde team, has also gotten better as the year went on. The Pirates, defending Class 4A DII State finalists, have gone on an eight-game winning streak since a soul-searching 64-28 loss to Stephenville. WR Jabarie Thornton (1,112 yards, 15 TD) is a familiar face from the championship run, but the Pirates also added to the crew with freshman DE/LB Eddison King, who leads the defense with 17 tackles for loss and 12 sacks.

 My Pick: Waco La Vega 35, West Orange-Stark 21

Cuero (12-1) v Sinton (12-1)

Previous Meeting: Cuero 56, Sinton 55 on October 17

The first matchup between these two teams was arguably the game of the year. Sinton led Cuero 55-35 with just under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. But Cuero recovered two onside kicks and then blocked a potential game-winning 37-yard field goal attempt for an improbable 56-55 victory. That ball game doesn’t gnaw at Sinton just because it was the only loss, but because of how they lost it. 

Sinton slayed the Wimberley dragon last week after Wimberley ended its season in back-to-back years. Now, they’re out for more revenge. While RB Mykha Green grabs the headlines with over 3,000 yards and 44 touchdowns, Sinton proved it was a complete team against Wimberley with Marcos Zapata’s three scores.  

Which is a good thing, because Sinton will need as many points as possible to compete with Cuero’s offense. QB Jaxxon Marie has thrown for 41 touchdowns and four interceptions, Camelo Perez has rushed for over 1,200 yards and WR Walker Dietze is one of the state’s most underrated receivers with over 1,300 yards and 23 touchdowns.

My Pick: Cuero 49, Sinton 42

Peaster (12-1) v Paradise (12-1)

Previous Matchup: Paradise 21, Peaster 15 on October 17

Paradise is back in the Regional Final for a third year in a row, while Peaster is in the Regional Final for the first time in school history. While one is more established and the other is an upstart, both programs can make a case as one of the top defenses in Class 3A DI. In the first matchup, Peaster’s defense held Paradise to 13 offensive points, while Paradise had a fumble returned for a touchdown to win. 

Paradise, under first-year head coach and former defensive coordinator Tommy Koch, has allowed just seven combined points in three playoff games. Peaster, meanwhile, is allowing just 6.9 points per game behind the stellar secondary play from the likes of Mark Tullous, Cade McCullough and Rhett Kelley.

In a game that’s nearly too close to call, I lean toward the team with more playoff experience.

My Pick: Paradise 17, Peaster 14

Yoakum (11-2) v Columbus (11-2)

Previous Matchup: Columbus 28, Yoakum 10 on October 17

Since 2018, Yoakum is 0-9 against Columbus and was knocked out of the playoffs by the Cardinals in 2024, 2020 and 2019. 

Columbus was the preseason No.1 team in Class 3A, but had plenty of question marks on offense after losing Mr. Texas Football winner Adam Schobel and 2,000-yard rusher Grayson Rigdon. They’ve come into their own in the back half of the season with another Schobel at QB, junior Jack Schobel. The Cardinals beat dangerous Palestine Westwood and Texas Tech QB commit Kavian Bryant in Round 2, then toppled the No.1-ranked team in Class 3A DI, Franklin, last week.

Yoakum, meanwhile, has rebounded well from a midseason loss to Columbus. The Bulldogs are one win away from their best season since 2018 behind SMU WR commit X’Zavier Barnett, who had 16 touchdowns and 15 sacks on the season before Round 3. But do the Cardinal red scars run too deep for this team?

My Pick: Columbus 24, Yoakum 7

Leonard (9-4) vs Gunter (12-1)

Previous Meeting: Gunter 44, Leonard 0 on November 6

Gunter has made the Regional Final every year since 2016, while this is only the second time ever that Leonard has made it this far. 

Gunter has new parts, but it’s the same wagon. Former offensive coordinator Jordan Gill took over for legendary Gunter head coach Jake Fieszel in May, and sophomore QB Knox Gage has stepped in to lead the Tigers to 46.7 points per game. The Tigers are seeking to become the fifth TXHSFB program ever to win four consecutive state championships. 

But they’ll have to go through Leonard to accomplish it. Coach Justin Dozier has his Tigers on the verge of making the semifinals for the first time since 2013 behind the heroics of do-it-all athlete Jacoby LaCook. The program was named a Cinderella story by DCTX this week for competing with 25 players on the roster and multiple defensive starters who played the entire regular season on JV.

My Pick: Gunter 45, Leonard 14

Idalou (10-3) v Wall (13-0)

Previous Matchup: Wall 35, Idalou 21 on October 3

Wall has been a juggernaut this season, but Idalou gave it the closest test in early October. The game was tied 14-14 at halftime before Wall pulled away. Since that night, Wall is averaging 49.7 points per game and has allowed 27 total points in seven games. 

But Idalou has turned into a different beast since the Wall game, too. After a 3-3 start, the Wildcats have won seven-straight games to make their first Regional Final since 2015. 

In a game where we’ll see the best version of each team, I think Wall has a higher ceiling.

My Pick: Wall 48, Idalou 14

Tidehaven (13-0) v East Bernard (9-4)

Previous Matchup: Tidehaven 59, East Bernard 6 on November 7

These teams met in the District 14-3A DII Championship Game just a month ago, and the 59-6 drubbing is still fresh on East Bernard’s mind. But the Brahmas didn’t let the bad vibes from that game linger, as they knocked off 3A powers Poth and Lexington in back-to-back weeks.

But Tidehaven has done nothing to dissuade me from picking them to win the Class 3A DII State Championship before the year. The Tigers returned 17 starters from a team that made the state semifinals last year, and the senior class is 50-7 over four years.

My Pick: Tidehaven 45, East Bernard 21

Joaquin (9-4) v San Augustine (9-4)

Previous Matchup: San Augustine 28, Joaquin 21 on October 10

Both these teams are on magical runs. San Augustine is 10-3 after five consecutive losing seasons. Meanwhile, Joaquin is back in the Regional Final as an underdog three-seed after making it to the state semifinals last season as a four-seed. 

Joaquin’s 28-21 loss to San Augustine dropped them to 3-3 on the young season. But Coach Jared Jones told his team after that game he wasn’t worried about what seed they got in the playoffs, only that they punched their ticket. Joaquin had lost a leader on the offensive line in the first scrimmage. Then, their center tore his MCL before the San Augustine game, which disrupted some of their timing in the Slot-T offense. But the group has banded together for another playoff run and is averaging 52.3 points per game in the playoffs.

But San Augustine has some dudes on defense who could give the Slot-T trouble, namely junior LB Jaylan Jackson, who has 103 tackles, 20 tackles for loss and six sacks.

My Pick: Joaquin 45, San Augustine 31

Stratford (10-2) v Gruver (10-2)

Previous Matchup: Stratford 40, Gruver 27 on October 10

If you want points, go to the Panhandle. These teams each boast some of the top QBs in Class 2A. Gruver’s Briggs Satterfield has thrown for 2,341 yards and 34 touchdowns and is also the Greyhounds’ leading rusher with 856 yards and 22 touchdowns. Stratford’s Chase Lantelme has thrown an impressive 31 touchdowns to three interceptions. 

So which defense can make the stop when it counts? Stratford junior Darius Jones is a force to be reckoned with on both sides of the ball. He has 1,087 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns, while also leading the Elks with six interceptions. But Gruver sophomore Bo Cowan’s numbers are just as impressive, with 131 tackles, 25 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. He’s teamed up with senior Victor Flores (100 tackles, 21 tackles for loss) to hold every opponent to 14 points or less since the Stratford loss.

My Pick: Gruver 38, Stratford 31

Lindsay (11-2) v Muenster (11-2)

Previous Matchup: Muenster 49, Lindsay 28 on October 17

One week after avenging a District 9-2A DII loss to Collinsville, Lindsay is looking to dethrone the defending state champs after falling short in mid-October. 

Lindsay’s option-based offense can cause headaches, but Muenster’s defense has vastly improved as the season has gone along. The Hornets’ two losses are to Class 3A playoff teams, and after surrendering 25.2 points per game in non-district play, they’ve allowed 13.25 points per game in the district and playoffs.

And apologies for burying the lead, Muenster’s QB Casen Carney has built off a State Championship MVP season with 3,732 total yards and 52 touchdowns. I don’t think his high school career ends this week.

My Pick: Muenster 42, Lindsay 32

Rankin v Water Valley 

Previous Matchup: Water Valley 68, Rankin 20

Water Valley is 2-0 against Rankin over the last two years, the Wildcats will rely on superstar Boston Wiese if they want to make it 3-0. But Rankin is a much-improved team since the loss to Water Valley, knocking off Whiteface, the clear favorite in Class 1A DII Region I after a state championship appearance last year, 82-38. The Red Devils have already avenged their only other regular-season loss to Borden County. Both programs are seeking their first-ever six-man state championship appearance.

My Pick: Water Valley 55, Rankin 8