To the Wire: Most Exciting District Championship Races
Who will prevail in the East Texas District 10-6A? Is it Columbus, Hitchcock or Yoakum in District 12-3A DI? All the tightest district races forecasted.
Nine-team districts are inherently chaotic, but San Antonio Legacy’s (7-1, 5-1) emergence has us throwing our preseason predictions out the window. The Titans, projected fourth in District 14-5A DI, now stand alone atop the standings after a 17-7 win over preseason favorite San Antonio Southwest (6-1, 4-1) in the Fire and Armor Bowl. Senior linebacker Eli Sanchez is having a “Legacy” year with 105 tackles, 26 tackles-for-loss and 15 sacks in just eight games.
Here’s where we stand as of Monday morning, October 20. Because every team has at least one district loss, Legacy leads the standings as the only school with five district wins. San Antonio Jay and San Antonio Southwest are both 4-1 in district and 6-1 overall. Those two programs will meet in the second-to-last game of the regular season in a game that will have massive playoff seeding implications. Legacy fans will be rooting for rival Southwest in that game, as Jay holds the tiebreaker over Legacy after a 17-16 win on September 18.
Laredo Nixon (5-3, 4-2) will be favored in its final two games against 0-7 Laredo Cigarroa and 2-5 Laredo Martin, but Nixon needs help to get back atop the district standings after a 38-7 loss to Jay this past Thursday.
San Antonio Southside (4-3, 3-2) and Eagle Pass Winn (2-5, 2-3) will need to win out and then get some help to reach the playoffs. These teams will face each other on October 30 in an elimination game. Southside has one-district-loss teams Jay and Legacy remaining on the schedule, while Eagle Pass still has to play Southwest in a battle where they’re 43-point underdogs.
Yates' Predicted Finish
1. San Antonio Southwest
2. San Antonio Legacy
3. San Antonio Jay
4. Laredo Nixon
We can reasonably predict three teams that will make the playoffs. Salado (5-2, 3-0), Jarrell (7-1, 3-1), and Wimberley (4-3, 2-1) would have to collapse to miss the postseason. Gonzales (5-2, 2-1) is the most vulnerable two-loss team because it still has to face all the former teams mentioned. The fight for playoff seeding - and the District 13-4A DII Championship - will be wild.
This week’s game between Jarrell and Salado will be the first district championship domino. Salado’s undefeated run thus far through district play is even more impressive considering they’ve done so without star QB/DB Devonte Foster, who was sidelined from Weeks 2-6 after winning Class 4A QB of the Week in the season opener. Jarrell took Wimberley to the mat in a 35-34 loss, their first of the season. That was the first test against the three top district teams, with Salado and Gonzales remaining.
Wimberley has the pedigree with five double-digit win seasons in the last six years, but the Texans have new faces at the helm after bidding adieu to long-time QB Cody Stoever and even longer-time head coach Doug Warren. Defensive coordinator turned head coach Wesley Lambert’s ballclub showed they could respond to adversity, following up a season-threatening 23-9 loss to Salado with a season-saving win against Jarrell. Wimberley is a 40-point favorite over Gonzales and has a matchup against 0-7 Smithville, but ever-dangerous Lago Vista looms in the finale. The Vikings were the projected second-place team in the district, but have stumbled to a 1-3 league record.
Gonzales started 5-1 for the first time since 2011 under first-year head coach Lyndon Hamilton. But the Apaches will be underdogs in each of their final three games. Geronimo Navarro (2-6, 1-3) and Lago Vista (4-4, 1-3) will be preying on their downfall. These teams play each other in a Week 10 elimination game. Geronimo Navarro has the tiebreaker over Gonzales after a 31-14 win last week, while Lago Vista lost to Gonzales 34-28 on October 10.
Yates' Predicted Finish
1. Salado
2. Wimberley
3. Jarrell
4. Gonzales
In a five-team district, it’s all but a foregone conclusion that Columbus, Hitchcock and Yoakum will make the playoffs. But because Columbus and Hitchcock are state-ranked, and Yoakum was on the bubble before a Week 8 loss, the championship fight is a heavyweight bout that’s settled on the field in the final month of the season.
Columbus (5-2, 1-0) stumbled to a 1-2 record out of the gate with one-possession losses to Class 4A Cuero and Needville. But the Cardinals have won four straight, including an all-important district opener against Yoakum. Columbus may not have quite as explosive an offense as last year with TCU QB Adam Schobel and Arizona State RB Grayson Rigdon, but the Cardinals’ defense, headlined by linebackers Rylan Carruthers and Brody Vinklarek, is surrendering just 12.7 points per game.
Columbus faces Hitchcock (6-2, 2-0) this week in one of the most highly anticipated district matchups of the season after Hitchcock handed Columbus its sole loss of last year’s state championship season. Hitchcock’s two losses came by a combined five points against Class 4A contenders Hamshire-Fannett and Bellville. The Bulldogs hold first place in the district as the only 2-0 team, but still have the biggest tests in Columbus and Yoakum on the schedule.
Yoakum (6-2, 1-1) lost the tiebreaker to Columbus after falling 28-10 last week, but the Bulldogs still have a path to first place if they beat Hitchcock and Hallettsville (2-5) after the bye. Coach Bo Robinson’s club boasts some of the top athletes in Class 3A, including SMU WR commit X’Zavier Barnett and superstar freshman Germarquis Robinson.
Yates' Predicted Finish
1. Columbus
2. Hitchcock
3. Yoakum
4. Hallettsville
This district has two teams with a 6-1 record (Collinsville and Santo) and three teams with a 5-2 record (Muenster, Era and Lindsay). Chico (1-6) is the only program with a losing record.
Collinsville, Santo and Muenster all play each other in the season’s final three weeks. Muenster (5-2, 2-0) is the reigning state champion with an offense scoring 42.6 points per game. Senior QB Casen Carney has thrown 17 touchdowns to just one interception while averaging 129.6 rushing yards per game.
Carney will have to go through Santo’s (6-1, 2-0) stingy defense for a district championship when these programs face off this week. Santo, which hasn’t made the playoffs the past two seasons, has turned its fortunes around with a defense that returned 8 starters. The Wildcats have allowed over 14 points just once this season.
Collinsville (6-1, 2-0) raced out to an expected fast start in an unexpected way after star QB Jaxon Jenkins went down early in the season. Sophomore Paxton Davidson has saved the season, throwing for over 1,000 yards and 14 TD while leading the Pirates with 446 rushing yards.
Barring a collapse by any of the top three teams, Era (5-2, 0-2) and Lindsay (5-2, 0-2) are in a battle for the fourth playoff spot. These two teams face off in the final week of the regular season, likely an elimination game.
Era head coach Tanner Mann took over a program that had five wins from 2019-23 and led it to a 5-6 record last year and a 5-0 start this season. The Hornets, however, have lost in back-to-back weeks to Santo and Muenster and are 44-point underdogs to Collinsville this week. Lindsay also started 5-0 with back-to-back district losses to Muenster and Collinsville. I lean toward giving Lindsay the nod for the fourth spot because the Knights are averaging 47.6 points per game and have already faced my two projected first and second-place finishers.
Yates' Predicted Finish
1. Muenster
2. Collinsville
3. Santo
4. Lindsay
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