Ranking 2025 State Champs' Odds of Winning Again in 2026
Out of the DeSoto Eagles, Smithson Valley Rangers, Stephenville Yellow Jackets, and Wall Hawks, which has the best chance to repeat as Texas High School Football state champions?
Fresh off the program’s first state championship in 111 years, the Hamilton Bulldogs immediately leveled up from Class 2A DI to Class 3A DII. Now, they are the second smallest 3A DII school in the state.
But the Bulldogs are used to playing the underdog. Before back-to-back 14-win seasons under Coach Ryan Marwitz, Hamilton had never won more than 11 games. Marwitz will rely on his son, linebacker Easton, who posted 163 tackles as a freshman last year. He’ll pair with defensive back Colton DeLaGarza (137 tackles, six interceptions) in the backend, while First Team defensive lineman Kennon Lee puts in the work up front.
The biggest unknown for Hamilton, aside from how they handle the jump in classification, is how they replace District MVP RB Halston Haile, Utility Player of the Year Devin Eanes, First Team QB Carson Roberts, and multiple First Team offensive linemen (Payden Dickerson, Henry Ivey, Mills Mehaffy). District Offensive Newcomer of the Year, lineman Zeb Murphree, is the lone returning First Team All-District member back on offense.
Scott Surratt has more state championship rings (11) than playoff losses (8) in his career, so predicting he won’t make it to at least the regional final is like predicting the sun won’t come up tomorrow.
Carthage lost a ton of brand names. Quarterback Jett Surratt and five-star running back KJ Edwards (Texas A&M) have graduated after rewriting the Carthage record books, as have four-star linebackers Carson Crawford (Colorado) and DaQuives Beck (Texas A&M). But they do return plenty of the nuts and bolts of the 2025 team.
Rising junior JD Edwards, KJ’s brother, was the District 8-4A DII Offensive Newcomer of the Year and will pair with First Team wide receiver Bryston Price. Whoever takes over for Surratt at quarterback should have plenty of time to throw behind returning First Team offensive linemen Vernon Pittman and Cooper Walters. With Coach Surratt’s offensive acumen, you can chalk up this offense averaging 40 points per game.
The defense returns three First Team All-District performers in defensive end Caleb Smith, defensive lineman Andric Kindle, and defensive back Trey Gant.
With every season, it feels like Jason Todd and the South Oak Cliff Golden Bears make more history. In 2021, they won the first Dallas ISD state championship since 1959. Last year, Todd became the first Black head coach to win three UIL State Championships (DeSoto’s Claude Mathis became the second later in the day). If South Oak Cliff reaches a state championship this year, they’ll join La Marque (1993-98) and Old Waco High (1922-27) as the only TXHSFB programs to ever reach six consecutive state championships.
South Oak Cliff does bid adieu to two 1,000-yard rushers in Mikail Trotter and Levon Morton, but whichever tandem takes over should have open space behind returning offensive linemen Brian Swanson and Zion Ragster. Swanson, who has 36 offers, earned DCTX All-State Championship Team honors. South Oak Cliff invested in offseason 7-on-7 to develop a passing attack that would keep defenses honest, and quarterback Jayden Williams rewarded that decision by earning District 5-5A DII Offensive MVP. Could he take on an even bigger role in the offense with Trotter and Morton’s departure?
One of the most intriguing offseason storylines for South Oak Cliff is how it replaces Kyle Ward, the widely respected defensive coordinator who became SMU’s safeties coach. Ward had served as Todd’s DC ever since Todd took the job in 2015. But co-defensive coordinators Domenic Spencer and Cranston Jones have intriguing pieces to work with in First Team All-District lineman Jaderian Jones (24 offers) and Defensive Newcomer of the Year, linebacker Cody Smith.
Willie Gaston has been integral to plenty of wins at North Shore. He was 25-3 as the team’s starting quarterback, then an offensive assistant for four state championships between 2015 and 2021. But last year’s 10-7 win over Duncanville in the Class 6A DI State Championship was his first as the head coach. In 2026, Gaston will attempt to become the second coach in school history to win back-to-back state championships, following his mentor, Jon Kay, who did so in 2018 and 2019.
North Shore does not return any First Team All-District selections, but we’d be fools to bet against a program that has reached at least the state semifinals every year since 2018. Safety Tony Guillory was the MVP of North Shore’s masterclass defensive performance against Duncanville, recording ten tackles, a tackle for loss, and a redzone interception. Offensive tackle Brandon Hebert earned DCTX All-State Championship Team honors after limiting previously unblockable Landon Barnes to two tackles and a sack (which only resulted in a two-yard loss).
It took Larry Hill 33 seasons and four state championship losses to win his first ring. Was that 2024 team the dam-breaker that led to Smithson Valley’s three-peat run?
Smithson Valley returns the offensive pieces to accomplish the feat. District 13-5A DI Co-MVP Hunter Haug is one of the state’s most underrated prospects. He earned Offensive MVP of last year’s state championship game with five catches for 91 yards and a touchdown while locking up Frisco Lone Star’s Division I wide receivers from his cornerback spot. Haug returns his quarterback, Texas commit Ty Knutson, but Smithson Valley won’t be one-dimensional with First Team All-District running back Caleb Peagler and center Kyler Gugliotti.
The big question mark for Smithson Valley is on the defensive side, which somehow loses 10 First Team All-District performers from an 11-man unit. But we have faith that Hill, a defensive-minded coach, and defensive coordinator Craig Wersterfer, who’s been with the program since 1993, will coach that unit into one of the state’s best.
Stephenville’s 10-0 victory over Kilgore in the Class 4A DI State Championship was the lowest scoring title game since 1991. But that was just the fourth time all season the Yellow Jackets were held under 40 points, and Stephenville returns a ton of production on that side of the ball.
Quarterback Trot Jordan was named the No.4 breakout star of the 2025 season by DCTX after throwing for 45 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’ll have 1,700-yard rusher Zyler McClendon, District 4-4A DI Offensive Line MVP Cooper Doty, District Offensive Newcomer Caden Monk, and the leading receiver from the state championship, Adan Jergins, all back.
No one’s expecting Stephenville to pitch a shutout in the state championship game after losing a bevy of three-year starters. But can an offense that’s even better mesh with a defense that doesn’t drop off much for the same result… a state championship trophy? Returning First Team All-District defensive linemen Jackson Richmond and Nolan Griswold will play a huge role in ensuring that happens.
DeSoto has won three of the last four state championships in Class 6A DII, returns running back SaRod Baker after rushing for 3,206 yards and 43 touchdowns, and drops down to 5A DI. Those are a lot of ingredients for a fourth state championship in five years.
The argument against a repeat is that the Eagles landed in the toughest Class 5A region in Texas, per DCTX. Their district has fellow 6A dropdowns, Lancaster and Cedar Hill. They’ll also have to go through programs like Highland Park, Frisco Lone Star, and Melissa to reach the state semifinals.
But over the last two years of 6A football, DeSoto has reached the regional final and won the state championship while playing with 5A DI numbers. Because there is no cap on enrollment for 6A football teams, the jump (or drop) between 6A and 5A football is the largest of any two classifications, aside from going from 11-man football to six-man football. DeSoto played district games against Duncanville, which had over 2,500 more students than DeSoto. Aside from the size difference, DeSoto’s District 11-6A was the single toughest district in Dallas-Fort Worth.
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