Tarleton at No. 20 Stephen F. Austin
When: 4 p.m. Saturday at Homer Bryce Stadium in Nacogdoches
Broadcast: ESPN+
The Matchup: It might seem like Stephen F. Austin opened WAC play with a win over Abilene Christian last week. However, that game was a non-conference affair. The ‘Jacks begin “WACtion” this week at home against Tarleton.
Only two of SFA’s six opponents have been FCS teams this year, with all three losses against teams that are FBS or transitioning to FBS. Conversely, three of Tarleton’s five foes have been FCS teams this season, and their only loss was at TCU.
This game is critical for the Lumberjacks, who need to win their remaining games to remain atop the ASUN-WAC power ranking that will determine an automatic bid to the FCS playoffs. On the other hand, the Texans are familiar with Homer Bryce Stadium making their third trip to Nacogdoches in the last four years and are primed to pull off the upset.
X-Factor: This game is extremely close on paper and according to Pro Football Focus grades. Games this close on metrics are typically decided by turnovers. Beau Allen has been tremendous for Tarleton this season but has thrown eight passes that could’ve resulted in a turnover.
SFA quarterback Trae Self has struggled following a fantastic 2021 season and has thrown nine passes that could’ve resulted in a turnover. However, only one of those nine passes has been against FCS competition.
Prediction: This feels like a game that will be decided by which defense can take advantage of an errant pass at a critical moment. That gives the edge to SFA, whose pass rush has been excellent this season, and will force Allen to hurry a throw that will be the difference.
SFA by 3