Stepp's 4A DI Region III Picks: District Projections and Playoff Outlook

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 9-4A Division I

1. Bridge City
2. Lumberton
3. Little Cypress-Mauriceville
4. Huffman-Hargrave
5. Vidor
6. Livingston
7. Liberty

Expect this district to fare much better in the first round of the playoffs as they no longer have to tangle with the brutal East Texas district out of the box. Bridge City, who was able to advance to the regional semifinals a year ago, gets the edge due to a stout defense led by Arkansas commit LB Bryce Breeden. Lumberton, who tied Bridge City for the district title a year ago, will lean on some of their veteran skill talent. LCM is always among the most athletic teams in the district. With QB Jackson Struwe and a talented young cast, the Bears should hold off Huffman and Vidor for that three seed. Vidor brings a lot back, but is it enough to put them past Huffman? Livingston should be much-improved and is a sleeper for a playoff spot.

District 10-4A Division I

1. Stafford
2. Houston Sterling
3. Fort Bend Willowridge
4. Houston Northside
5. Houston Austin
6. Sugar Land Harmony

Much of Houston ISD at the 4A level dropped to Division II at realignment, so this new district is a combination of the teams remaining in HISD along with schools inside of Harris County. Stafford should be the favorite after an area round playoff run last year, but it won’t be a runaway with a strong Sterling squad dropping down from Class 5A-Division I. The Raiders return 18 starters from a team that just missed out on the playoffs in 2025. After a tough 2025 season, Willowridge will be much-improved as well with eight starters back on both sides of the ball. Northside and Austin will be locked in a real battle for that fourth and final playoff spot.

District 11-4A Division I

1. Bay City
2. Navasota
3. Needville
4. Sealy
5. El Campo
6. West Columbia
7. Brookshire Royal

It’s safe to say there’s two distinct tiers in this district. The top tier definitely features Bay City and Navasota, who are expected to compete for the district title. Bay City’s veteran offense will be as explosive as any in Region III and there’s enough back on defense to think the Blackcats won’t take much of a step back on that side of the ball either. Navasota has an absolute dealer at QB in Jace Jablonski, who returns to lead the Rattlers after throwing for 41 touchdowns a year ago. Navasota’s young defense is their biggest red flag going into 2026. There’s a four-way battle for the final two playoff spots as on paper and in reality the margins between Needville, Sealy, El Campo and West Columbia are razor thin. Needville was a playoff team last year and they bring back a loaded offense. Sealy’s been consistently excellent in Division II and the move up won’t impact them much. El Campo has struggled staying healthy, but if the Ricebirds can get some breaks they’ll be in the mix. West Columbia was a district champion in Division II last year. The new neighborhood is much more daunting, but the Roughnecks will be a contender as well.

District 12-4A Division I

1. Stephenville
2. Lampasas
3. China Spring
4. Jarrell
5. Burnet
6. Marble Falls

Defending state champion Stephenville may still be in shock on their unusual realignment draw moving to Region III, but that won’t impact the ‘Jackets in August as they look like a strong candidate to repeat as state champions with the return of seven starters on both sides of the ball. QB Trot Jordan and RB Zyler McClendon are back along with a lethal receiving corps led by sophomore WR Caden Monk. The defensive line took some hits losing some big names, but without question Stephenville is the team to beat. Lampasas has the pieces to hold off China Spring for the two seed, but that will be an absolute battle. Jarrell, up from Division II, has a lethal offense led by explosive RB Brayden Henderson, who won’t be one of the state’s best kept secrets for long.

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS AND PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

W9 Bridge City vs F10 Houston Northside

R12 Lampasas vs T11 Needville

W10 Stafford vs F9 Huffman-Hargrave

R11 Navasota vs T12 China Spring

W11 Bay City vs F12 Jarrell

R10 Houston Sterling vs T9 Little Cypress-Mauriceville

W12 Stephenville vs F11 Sealy

R9 Lumberton vs T10 Fort Bend Willowridge

The top part of the bracket is pretty wide open. Could Bridge City be the team that makes a big run in 2026? The Cardinals have the pieces and if they can handle a Navasota squad they eliminated in the area playoffs a year ago, I think the Cards will be pushing into December. A regional semifinal showdown between Bay City and Stephenville at the bottom of the bracket may be the actual regional title game as these are the top two teams in the region.

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Stephenville over Bridge City