Note: This story is featured in the 2026 edition of Dave Campbell's Texas Football's Summer Magazine, which you can order here.

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BEHIND ENEMY LINES  

“It’s an unfair expectation in the 12-team playoff world but Sark needs to reach the national championship or he’ll start feeling some heat locally and from the national pundits. That’s Texas. They want championships even though they haven’t won many championships. The roster is too talented and expensive to expect anything less.”  

“Getting rid of Pete (Kwiatkowski) and bringing in (Will) Muschamp was a gamble. That better work because, at least statistically, the defense hasn’t been the problem since Sarkisian was hired. It’s all on (Sarkisian’s) plate now. He owns it, good or bad.”  

“Arch (Manning) was dynamite by the end of the season. Just a tough kid who blocked out the noise and balled out down the stretch. And he’ll have better weapons around him this season. That offense might score 40 points a game.”  

SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS  

Sept. 5 Texas State W 

Sept. 12 Ohio State L 

Sept. 19 UTSA W 

Sept. 26 at Tennessee W 

Oct. 3 IDLE 

Oct. 10 Oklahoma (Dallas) W 

Oct. 17 Florida W 

Oct. 24 Ole Miss W 

Oct. 31 Mississippi State W 

Nov. 7 at Missouri W 

Nov. 14 at LSU W 

Nov. 21 Arkansas W 

Nov. 27 at Texas A&M L  

Record: 10-2 (8-1) 

Biggest Game – Sept. 12 vs. Ohio State  

The Horns can make an early statement and earn some CFP wiggle room while exacting revenge on an Ohio State program that knocked Texas out of the CFP in 2024 and beat them at home to start 2025. These types of non-conference clashes should be protected at all costs.  

Trap Game – Nov. 21 vs. Arkansas  

Three of Texas’ final four games are on the road, including trips to LSU and Texas A&M. The lone home game in November is against Arkansas. The Nov. 21 matchup with the Hogs is sandwiched between the trip to Baton Rouge and the trip to College Station, which will make it easy to overlook.  

Upset Alert – Nov. 14 at LSU  

Texas could be favored in every game in the 2026 regular season so picking an upset alert is especially tough. One potential game as an underdog is on the road to LSU to face Lane Kiffin’s Tigers. These two programs last met in the 2019 classic featuring Joe Burrow.  

BEST CASE/WORST CASE 

Best Case: 12-0  

An improved offensive line and supporting cast around Arch Manning combined with an aggressive scheme installed by defensive coordinator Will Muschamp allows the Horns to run the table and play in the SEC Championship game for the second time in three years. Texas enters the CFP race as the one-seed.   

Worst Case: 7-5 

Steve Sarkisian’s gamble to replace defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski with Will Muschamp doesn’t pan out and a tough schedule that includes a non-conference showdown with Ohio State as well as SEC road games against Tennessee, LSU, and Texas A&M prevents Texas from reaching the CFP for the second straight year.  

2025 RESULTS 

Aug. 30 at Ohio State L 14-7  

Sept. 6 San Jose State W 38-7 
Sept. 13 UTEP W 27-10 

Sept. 20 Sam Houston W 55-0 

Oct. 4 at Florida L 29-21 

Oct. 11 Oklahoma (Dallas) W 23-6 

Oct. 18 at Kentucky W 16-13 

Oct. 25 at Mississippi State W 45-38 (OT) 

Nov. 1 Vanderbilt W 34-31 

Nov. 15 at Georgia L 35-10 

Nov. 22 Arkansas W 52-37 

Nov. 29 Texas A&M W 27-17 

Dec. 31 Michigan (Citrus Bowl) W 41-27 

Record 10-3 (6-2)