Note: This story is featured in the 2026 edition of Dave Campbell's Texas Football's Summer Magazine, which you can order here.

BEHIND ENEMY LINES  

“(Dave Aranda) has just been so reactionary with his plan and that’s never allowed them to build an identity. They weren’t using the portal and then they were. They weren’t going to pay players and then they did. They wanted to focus on high school stars and now they don’t. That’s not a way to build a program. Right or wrong, sometimes you need to stick with a plan and give it time. He hasn’t done that.” 

“Is it more likely that Aranda is fired by the end of October or that Baylor is in the Big 12 mix at that point? I don’t even know what he needs to do to save his job but I’d imagine 6-6 won’t cut it. I guess it all falls on DJ Lagway’s health and that new defensive coordinator. My guess is that it goes great or horribly wrong. No in between.”  

SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS  

Sept. 5 Auburn (Atlanta) L 

Sept. 12 Prairie View A&M W 

Sept. 19 La Tech W 

Sept. 26 Colorado W 

Oct. 3 at Arizona State L 

Oct. 10 IDLE 

Oct. 17 TCU L 

Oct. 24 at Kansas W 

Oct. 30 at UCF W 

Nov. 7 Iowa State  W 

Nov. 14 at BYU L 

Nov. 21 Texas Tech  L 

Nov. 28 at Houston  L 

Record: 6-6 (4-5) 

BIGGEST GAME – Oct. 17 vs. TCU  

No two programs in Texas have played each other more often than Baylor and TCU and this year’s matchup is in Waco as the Bears come off an open week. Dave Aranda is 1-5 against the Horned Frogs and could use a win over a rival, especially at home.  

TRAP GAME – Oct. 31 at UCF  

The Knights were 5-7 overall and a putrid 2-7 in Big 12 play during Scott Frost’s first year back with UCF. Baylor won the 2025 matchup in Waco, 30-3. The 2026 contest is on the road, and it’ll be the second game in a row away from McLane Stadium.  

UPSET ALERT – Nov. 21 vs. Texas Tech 

Baylor hosts the defending Big 12 champions and the clear-cut favorites in 2026 when the Red Raiders head to Waco in the second-to-last game of the season. The Bears have won three of the last four against Texas Tech and Dave Aranda is 2-1 against Joey McGuire.  

BEST CASE/WORST CASE 

Best Case: 10-2 

Baylor becomes the surprise team of the Big 12 because transfer quarterback DJ Lagway lives up to his five-star billing and new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman fixes a Bears defense that’s struggled over the past few seasons as the program is resurrected in Year 7 of the Dave Aranda era.  

Worst Case: 4-8  

The Bears move on from Dave Aranda in the middle of the season and punt toward 2027 because injuries and/or turnovers continue to plague DJ Lagway and new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman can’t fix a broken defense. The schedule includes five Big 12 road games.   

2025 RESULTS 

Aug. 29 Auburn L 38-24  

Sept. 6 at SMU W 48-45 (2OT) 
Sept. 13 Samford W 42-7 

Sept. 20 Arizona State L 27-24 

Sept. 27 at Oklahoma State W 45-27 

Oct. 4 Kansas State W 35-34 

Oct. 18 at TCU L 42-36 

Oct. 25 at Cincinnati L 41-20 

Nov. 1 UCF W 30-3 

Nov. 15 Utah L 55-28 

Nov. 22 at Arizona L 41-17 

Nov. 29 Houston L 31-24 

Record: 5-7 (3-6)