This week doesn't have the killer group of ranked clashes that last week had, but there are still some pivotal games around the Lone Star state.
GAME: Southern University at Prairie View A&M
WHEN: Saturday at 5 p.m. at Panther Stadium in Prairie View, Texas. Game will be live streamed on ESPN3.
WHY IT MATTERS: A win in this game for Prairie View A&M would give them a game advantage over both of their main challengers in the SWAC West division. The winner of the West division will play the winner of the East division in the SWAC championship game on Dec. 1. Prairie View A&M has not appeared in the SWAC championship game since 2009. PVAMU is searching for their first win against Southern since 2015.
INSIDE THE STATS: PVAMU has the best offense in the SWAC as they average 6.6 yards per play. The Panthers also boast the conference’s second best defense as they have only allowed 4.5 yards per play this season. The Southern offense enters the game averaging 4.7 yards per play which is eighth in conference while the Jaguars defense is sixth in the SWAC allowing 6.4 yards per play.
COMPUTER SCORE PREDICTION: Prairie View A&M 36, Southern University 21
GAME: No. 16 Tarleton State at No. 7 Texas A&M-Commerce
WHEN: Saturday at 4 p.m. at Memorial Stadium in Commerce, Texas
WHY IT MATTERS: The winner of this game will earn control of their destiny towards winning the Lone Star Conference title which also earns the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA DII playoffs. A loss for the Lions would mean they would need help to win the LSC. They would also have to rely on their win last week over then No. 4 Midwestern State to boost them in the Super Region Four rankings. This is the toughest game to date for the Texans and a loss would place them in a position where they would need to win their remaining games including a game on the road against No. 12 Midwestern State. Tarleton State is searching for their first win over TAMUC since Oct. 2012.
INSIDE THE STATS: Tarleton State enters this contest with a potent offense as they average 6.9 yards per play which ranks second in the LSC. The Texans defense is also very solid and ranked second in conference as they only allow 4.1 yards per play. TAMUC enters the game having played much better offensively of late and they have lifted their yards per play average to 5.6. The Lions rely on their stingy defense which ranks as the conference’s best as they only allow four yards per play.
COMPUTER SCORE PREDICTION: Tarleton State 31, Texas A&M-Commerce 27
GAME: East Texas Baptist at Texas Lutheran
WHEN: Saturday at 1 p.m. at Bulldog Stadium in Seguin, Texas
WHY IT MATTERS: The winner of this game will keep their already slim hopes alive of earning a spot in the NCAA DIII playoffs. The winner will also have the edge in finishing third in the American Southwest Conference. ETBU still has No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor looming as their last regular season game on Nov. 10. TLU is beginning a tough two-game stretch as they face No. 9 Hardin-Simmons on the road next week.
INSIDE THE STATS: ETBU brings their high-powered offense to the game as they are third best in the conference averaging 7.1 yards per play. The Tigers defense has struggled this season as they have allowed 5.5 yards per play which ranks fifth best in the ASC. The Bulldogs enter with a dangerous ground game as they are sixth in the conference averaging 5.2 yards per play. The TLU defense is very solid as they only allow 4.6 yards per play which is second best in the conference.
COMPUTER SCORE PREDICTION: Texas Lutheran 36, East Texas Baptist 30
GAME: Trinity (Tex.) at Centre College
WHEN: Saturday at 11 a.m. at Farris Stadium in Danville, Ky.
WHY IT MATTERS: Trinity needs a win this week to have any chance at winning the Southern Athletic Association title and the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA DIII playoffs. The Tigers have one conference loss to Millsaps earlier this season. Centre also has a conference loss this season to conference leader No. 12 Berry. Trinity will host No. 12 Berry at home in their season finale on Nov. 10.
INSIDE THE STATS: Trinity have the fourth best offense in the conference as they average 5.8 yards per play. The Tigers will need their defense to play well this week as they have allowed the sixth best average yards per play in the SAA this season at 5.2. Centre brings the best offense in the SAA to the game as they average seven yards per play. The Colonels defense is also very strong as they are tied for third in the SAA allowing 4.8 yards per play.
COMPUTER SCORE PREDICTION: Centre College 28, Trinity (Tex.) 21
OTHER COMPUTER SCORE PREDICTIONS:
No. 16 Central Arkansas 35, Stephen F. Austin 23
Abilene Christian 28, No. 11 Nicholls 27
Lamar 38, Incarnate Word 37
Southeastern Louisiana 36, Houston Baptist 30
No. 14 Sam Houston State 31, Northwestern State 27
Grambling State 31, Texas Southern 22
Angelo State 29, West Texas A&M 27
UT Permian Basin 30, Humboldt State 21
No. 12 Midwestern State 31, Texas A&M-Kingsville 26
McMurry 31, Louisiana College 30
No. 9 Hardin-Simmons 49, Sul Ross State 17
No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor 50, Howard Payne 15
Southwestern 30, Belhaven 20
Millsaps 28, Austin College 11
Texas Wesleyan 31, Oklahoma Panhandle State 26
Southwestern Assemblies of God University 33, Lyon (Ark.) 29
Ottawa (Ariz.) 43, Texas College 27
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