TEN THOUGHTS
1. TCU punches its ticket: The outcome of the Big 12 title game might not matter for TCU’s College Football Playoff hopes following an advantageous week of results to close out the regular season. The most important was the Horned Frogs’ beatdown of Iowa State in Fort Worth. Losses by Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU means TCU could already be guaranteed a spot in the Final Four. Georgia is in, and so is Michigan. USC is also in play. But would a two-loss SEC team like Alabama or a one-loss Ohio State team that didn’t even win its division pass up a one-loss TCU if the Horned Frogs lose a close one to Kansas State? The good news for Sonny Dykes and company is that a win over the Wildcats makes the whole debate moot.
2. The winning formula: Football doesn’t need to be rocket science, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Give your best players the ball in space and let them cook. Steve Sarkisian struggles with that concept at times, but not in crunch time against Baylor. Quinn Ewers committed an intentional grounding penalty on the first offensive drive for Texas that resulted in a safety. His fourth-quarter fumble was returned for a touchdown. If the Longhorns were going to win and keep conference title hopes alive, it’d be up to the backfield. They delivered.
Bijan Robinson averaged 6.2 yards a carry and scored two touchdowns while moving his career rushing yards to fourth all-time in Texas' record books. Roschon Johnson added 77 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. The Longhorns averaged six yards a carry as a team when the yards were adjusted for sacks. Ewers hurt the overall average by recording -48 yards on six carries – five of them were sacks and the other was a touchdown run in the first half. Texas is at its best when it runs the football. Ewers’ struggles forced Sark’s hands, but that was for the best.
3. Shapen not sharp: Baylor beats the Longhorns with more consistent play from its sophomore quarterback. Blake Shapen completed 18 of 36 passes for 179 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. For comparison, Ewers had 194 yards passing on 16 attempts. Take away a 47-yard touchdown bomb to Jaylen Ellis in the first quarter and the Bears didn’t record a single catch over 20 yards in the game. Texas focused on stopping the run and figured its secondary could bait Shapen into a few mistakes. An interception by Jaylan Ford – the leading candidate for Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year – essentially ended the game in the fourth quarter.
Baylor bet big on Shapen. Dave Aranda named him the starter in the spring despite the return of Gerry Bohanon after a 12-win 2021. Shapen simply hasn’t lived up to those expectations. His arm talent is unquestioned, but his fundamentals break down and he makes poor decisions at times. He also misses too many easy throws. He’ll need to improve to keep his job ahead of freshman Kyron Drones in the offseason.
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