Nobody will ever mistake the 2020 (or, we should say, the 2020-21) Texas high school football season for boring. From a jumbled schedule that pushed games past Christmas and into the new year, to the looming threat of COVID-19 outbreaks leading to postponements and cancellations, to limited attendance and Friday night broadcasts, this past season was singular in its strangeness.

But for all the oddities surrounding the game, the legacy of the 2020-21 Texas high school football season on the field may, in fact, be its relative predictability and stability.

For a number of reasons, it’s difficult to predict Texas high school football at a statewide level; there are so many variables in play with so many teams that anyone that tells you they know exactly how the season will go is lying to you. That includes us at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football — we like to think we do our research and make informed projections, but once toe meets leather, anything can happen.

A lot of our projections come from a few factors — like how successful the team has been lately, what kind of players they bring back from last season, and so on.

Which is what makes the 2020-21 season so interesting to examine, since it was relatively devoid of shockers, at least from a state title perspective. Of the 12 UIL Texas high school football state champions, I think only one — the 3A Division I champion Tuscola Jim Ned — could be categorized as a surprise.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at how 2020 compares to the previous four years in terms of two types of “surprises” — first-time state champions, and eventual state champs that started the year outside of the top five in DCTF’s rankings.