Regional Outlook

Region IV has been dominated by the “Big 3” of Refugio, Mason and Shiner in recent years, and there’s no reason to think one of those three won’t take home the title again in 2020.

There are a couple of intriguing newcomers who could have enough to at least put up a fight and possibly bring some new blood to the mix come playoff time though.

There’s no question 13-2A Division I is the toughest district in the entire region, as the projected fifth place team Schulenburg is a playoff team in any other district in the state. Shiner, who felt like they let Refugio off the hook in their classic regional semi-final a year ago, is back and could be even stronger. The challenges inside the district will be tough with Ganado, a regional finalist in 3A-Division II, dropping down. Flatonia, who made a deep run in Division II, moves into the district, while Weimar should be salty as well.

Mason, in a “down” year, still posted an outstanding 10-3 mark, and the Punchers look to be even stronger in 2020 with the return of some key pieces from last year’s squad. Ozona, who moves over from Region I, will be the top challenger to Mason after making the area playoffs a year ago. But the Lions will have to adapt to a new system under a new head coach. Johnson City and Center Point get the nod for the final two playoff spots, but Brackettville is right in the mix as well.

Defending state champion Refugio brings back 25 lettermen and folks around town are fired up about some of the young talent in the pipeline. The Bobcats are the clear favorite in 15-2A Division I and likely won’t be challenged. The real battle is the race for second place where we expect Three Rivers to hold off a much improved Kenedy squad.

Don’t expect any regional title contenders to come out of 16-2A Division I, but the district race has some intrigue as Santa Maria out of the RGV gets the nod for the title over rapidly improving Premont.

District Predictions

District 13-2A Division I

1. Shiner
2. Ganado
3. Flatonia
4. Weimar
5. Schulenburg

District 14-2A Division I

1. Mason
2. Ozona
3. Johnson City
4. Center Point
5. Brackettville
6. Harper

District 15-2A Division I

1. Refugio
2. Three Rivers
3. Kenedy
4. Freer
5. Bloomington

District 16-2A Division I

1. Santa Maria
2. Premont
3. La Villa
4. Ben Bolt
5. Riviera Kaufer

Predicted Playoff Matchups

W13 Shiner vs F14 Center Point

R16 Premont vs T15 Kenedy

W14 Mason vs F13 Weimar

R15 Three Rivers vs T16 La Villa

W15 Refugio vs F16 Ben Bolt

R14 Ozona vs T13 Flatonia

W16 Santa Maria vs F15 Freer

R13 Ganado vs T14 Johnson City

Playoff Sleeper

Ganado: The Indians advanced all the way to the regional semifinals in 3A-Division II a year ago and although a good group of seniors has moved on 18 letterman are back giving this team a chance to put the entire state on notice in the regional semifinals with a showdown against Refugio.  

Regional Winner

Shiner over Refugio: Shiner has had to live with the agony of their playoff meltdown against Refugio for a year, the Comanches get their revenge this time in the regional finals and sends their nemesis home without a chance to repeat.