There are already 12 head coaching openings in college football before the calendar turns to November. No jobs in Texas have been impacted yet, but that is sure to change.

Of the 13 sitting FBS head coaches, odds are that at least two or three change. Last year, Rice and Sam Houston welcomed in new coaches. The year before that it was Texas A&M, Houston, and UTEP. The year before that, North Texas and Texas State hired new head coaches. 

There aren’t many coaches in the hot seat in the Lone Star State, however. In fact, we think only Dave Aranda at Baylor is in danger of losing his job. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be more turnover. That’s because there are a handful of coaches in Texas that will attract outside attention. 

So, let’s look at how likely each job is to come open this cycle by using the Richter scale. That’s basically a 1-10 scale of how bad an earthquake is, with 1 being a micro earthquake and 10 being extreme.  

Dave Aranda, Baylor 

Scale: 9.5 

The fan base has checked out and there doesn’t appear to be any way that Baylor can give Aranda a seventh year based on the trajectory of the program. He was almost fired after the 2023 season, rebounded late in 2024, and then fell short of expectations in 2025. The Bears are 21-25 over the last four seasons, including a 4-4 start this year. Aranda is 35-34 overall, but it is the 14-18 record against the Big 12 since the start of 2022 that will doom his tenure. A loss to UCF this weekend could be the final nail. If not, the buyout reportedly drops after Dec. 1. Baylor is a private institution so the exact language of Aranda’s contract is not public knowledge. If he keeps his job, it is because Baylor doesn't want to pay the buyout or enter such a crowded market. It won't be for football reasons. 

Eric Morris, North Texas 

Scale: 8.5 

Success begets suitors. Morris will have a plethora of options after the season with the likes of Arkansas and Oklahoma State likely to request an interview. And for good reason. Morris has a history of finding and maximizing quarterbacks, and that’s the most important position in the sport. He spotted Patrick Mahomes as a young assistant at Texas Tech, found Cam Ward while the head coach at Incarnate Word, and currently has a former walk-on – Drew Mestemaker – in the Heisman mix. His Mean Green are 7-1 and in the mix for the American Conference championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff. North Texas will try everything it can to keep him and the board already signed off on extending him. 

GJ Kinne, Texas State 

Scale: 6.5 

This threat was higher a month ago after Texas State began the season 3-1 and Kinne was seemingly on every candidate list when Arkansas and Oklahoma State opened. Since, his Bobcats are 0-4 to start Sun Belt play and were thumped on Tuesday night by James Madison. Coaching searches are all about perception and momentum and Kinne has lost that. Fan bases, and by extension athletic directors, are a fickle bunch that typically chase the flavor of the month and Texas State is in danger of not reaching a bowl game. Still, Kinne is considered one of the best young head coaches in America and many decision makers won’t be scared off by a bad month. 

Jeff Traylor, UTSA 

Scale: 5.5 

Just like Kinne, a slow start in 2025 might keep Traylor from entering discussions at potential openings. He was one of the top head coaches in America just a few years ago when his Roadrunners won 32 games and two conference championships over a three-year period from 2021-23. If this type of carousel existed then, maybe Traylor wouldn’t be in San Antonio today. But coaching changes are all about timing and UTSA is 10-10 since the start of 2024. Traylor, a Texas high school coach at heart, also has ties to Arkansas. Oklahoma State would be a solid culture fit. But we’re watching potential openings in-state like Baylor if Aranda is hired or SMU if Lashlee leaves for the SEC. 

Rhett Lashlee, SMU 

Scale: 5.0 

This was higher on my board before SMU extended Lashlee for two years and reportedly made him one of the Top 10 highest paid coaches in college football last week. The Mustangs don’t lack resources and Lashlee can become a legend on the Hilltop and do things his way, which isn’t true at name brands spots like Florida, Auburn, and LSU. He doesn't face unrealistic expectations at SMU and won't be fired after a year or two the first time his team experiences a slump. Maybe the alure of a big job in the SEC becomes too much to pass up this cycle or down the road, but for now, we’ll take Lashlee at his word and assume he plans on leading SMU for years to come. 

Sonny Dykes, TCU 

Scale: 4.0 

The Richter scale considers a 4.0 to be a light earthquake with noticeable shaking and rattling, but it generally causes zero to minimal damage. That sounds a lot like how to describe the Dykes era right now. The Frogs are a solid football team, but the fan base isn’t all the way in and there is a chance that they don’t win another game this season considering TCU finishes with Iowa State, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati. How does Fort Worth react to a 6-6 finish in Year 4 if the Frogs fade down the stretch and lose four straight? We think the Horned Frogs win one or two more games and it is a moot point, but we won’t completely write it off as an impossibility. No one has patience anymore and the 12-team playoff has made it even tougher for coaces to live up to their fan base's hype. 

Willie Fritz, Houston 

Scale: 3.5 

Fritz clearly won’t be fired at Houston. That means the only way he isn’t with the Cougars in 2025 is if he’s poached. We’ll give it a slight chance only because LSU is open and maybe if the Tigers miss on a few big names, they call the guy who resurrected Tulane football within the state. Fritz isn’t a big name with a high-flying offense and he is 65 years old, so that works against him with some of the blueblood jobs. The one that could scare Houston fans is Nebraska. If Matt Rhule takes Penn State, that job opens and Troy Dannen is the athletic director. He was at Tulane with Fritz and Fritz is of the generation that still considers Nebraska to be one of the top jobs in America. 

Steve Sarkisian, Texas

Scale: 3 

A report surfaced last week that Sarkisian’s people have let some teams in the NFL know that the current University of Texas head coach would be open to NFL opportunities. That seems like the only way Sarkisian leaves Texas. We don’t think he’d make a lateral move to a place like LSU, for example. Sark likes big cities. The NFL could be a solid parachute if he doesn’t like the trajectory, or the job, in Austin. He wants to call plays and he wouldn’t have to use so much time on recruiting and fundraising in the NFL, giving him more time to draw up plays as a play-calling head coach. This feels like a conversation that could happen at this time next year rather than this year. He’ll want another year with Arch Manning. 

Mike Elko, Texas A&M 

Scale: 2.5 

Never say never but we feel like this is one of the situations in which we can say never. Texas A&M is one of the top 10 jobs in the country because of its resources, conference affiliation, and proximity to high school talent. Elko has it cooking in College Station, so why would he leave for a mostly lateral job like Penn State or LSU when he can just keep it rolling with the Aggies? 

Phil Longo, Sam Houston 

Scale: 2 

The Bearkats won’t fire a head coach after one season no matter how disastrous it is. Longo wasn’t dealt a good hand considering how late he was hired into the portal season and that Sam Houston is playing home games an hour away from campus. He also won’t be in any head coaching conversations after starting winless in Huntsville. The only way this opens is if Longo decides he’d rather be an offensive coordinator somewhere in college football or in the NFL. We think he runs it back in 2026. 

Joey McGuire, Texas Tech 

Scale: 1 

Why would any head coach leave Texas Tech? McGuire is there for the long run and is a perfect fit for what is cooking in Lubbock. He won’t leave unless the Red Raiders kick him out and they’re having far too much success for that to be a concern. 

Scotty Walden, UTEP 

Scale: 1 

Like Longo, Walden isn’t on the hot seat at his current school and hasn’t achieved enough to be poached by a bigger one. He’ll run it back in an important Year 3. The leash in El Paso won’t get longer once the Miners move to the Mountain West. The chances that UTEP is searching for a new coach might become a reality after 2026, but not yet. 

Scott Abell, Rice 

Scale: 1

Abell is in Year 1 at Rice. He’s a great fit for the Owls and would need to experience much more success before bigger jobs came calling. His offense is so unique that most schools wouldn’t wade into those waters. That’s to the benefit of the Owls, who hope Abell is on South Main for the foreseeable future. It’s one of the better fits in the state and we think he could be there for a decade.