The calendar flip to October signals that business is picking up for college football teams across the country as conference play intensifies. Eleven of the 13 FBS teams in Texas are in action during Week 6 and all of them face conference foes, some for the first time in 2025. UTEP and North Texas are idle. 

Of the 11 teams in action, 10 are favorites. The only underdog is a Houston team that hosts Texas Tech. The Lone Star State is off to a strong start as a collective with a combined 37-19 record for our 13 programs. Take away the 1-8 combined record for UTEP and Sam Houston and the rest of the state is 36-11. Five of those losses are to fellow in-state FBS teams, so the combined record of the 11 Texas programs not in Conference USA against teams from outside the state is a staggering 31-6. 

Week 6 provides us with a real opportunity to start separating conference contenders from conference pretenders. Texas and SMU hope to win their first games against Power Four opponents on Saturday in their respective conference openers. Texas Tech at Houston features two of the 20 undefeated teams left in the country. Baylor hosts Kansas State in a pivotal game for Dave Aranda and Rice can take a step towards bowl eligibility against FAU. 

1. Will Texas Tech avoid a classic Willie Fritz trap? 

As the head coach at Tulane, Fritz was 8-4-1 against the spread as a home underdog. His Houston Cougars are 10.5-point underdogs at home to Texas Tech for the 6 p.m. kick in Third Ward. The Coogs knocked off Utah and Kansas State straight up at home in 2024 and are quietly undefeated so far in 2025. The Fritz era started with a 2-5 record. Houston is 7-4 since that Oct. 26 win over Utah last season. 

This is the quintessential trap game for the Red Raiders, who’ve heard how great they are for two weeks after blasting Utah on the road in Week 4 and being idle in Week 5. Tech is the odds-on favorite to win the Big 12 and a trip to the College Football Playoff is predicted by nearly every pundit and formula heading into Week 6. Texas Tech is 7-11 on the road under Joey McGuire and has been prone to road upsets, including Wyoming and West Virginia in 2023 and Washington State in 2024. 

Texas Tech is the better team here, especially along the lines of scrimmage. The resources the Red Raiders poured into the transfer portal have paid off, specifically on the defensive line. They should overwhelm a Houston offensive line that is improved but banged up. I’m not sure how Houston scores enough points to hang with Texas Tech unless the Red Raider offense, which will have quarterback Behren Morton in the starting lineup, turns the ball over and provides the Coogs with short fields. 

2. Can Texas, SMU start conference play off with a bang? 

Texas and SMU are two of the only teams left in college football without a win over a Power Four opponent. The Ponies haven’t beaten an FBS team in 2025. That’ll need to change for both squads on Saturday with the start of conference play. Texas is a touchdown favorite on the road against Florida. SMU is an overwhelming favorite at home against Syracuse. Both programs entered 2025 with high hopes and haven’t lived up to the hype through non-conference play. A big start to conference play would help build some momentum and quiet any noise in the fan base. 

The big question for Texas is offensively. The trip to Florida is the first true test for Arch Manning and the Longhorn passing attack since the Aug. 30 game at Ohio State. Texas played three G5 squads in the month of September and weren’t always sharp in those games offensively. They did look improved against Sam Houston, but the Bearkats are one of the 10-worst teams in the country. Florida’s defense is a real challenge for Arch & Co. 

SMU lost in overtime at home to Baylor and on the road to TCU. The idle week probably did the Mustangs some good, though there are distractions lingering off the field with head coach Rhett Lashlee’s name attached to the Arkansas opening. Syracuse is without its starting quarterback and Ford Stadium on the Hilltop is sold out. This can be a true statement of intent from an SMU squad that seems left for dead for some reason in the ACC race. 

3. Can Baylor win at home?  

Quietly, one of the more important games in Texas during Week 6 happens when Baylor hosts Kansas State at 11 a.m. on Saturday. The stands were noticeably not full for a night game against Arizona State two weeks ago, which makes us worried about what McLane Stadium looks like at kickoff for this one. Baylor has struggled at home over the last couple of years, winning only four of its last 16 against Power Four opponents in Waco. 

The Bears need this one. So does Dave Aranda. It feels like at least half of the fan base is out on him as we approach the midway point of Year 6. A win over a struggling Kansas State team won’t end all the noise, but a loss would absolutely put the focus back on him and turn the heat on his seat back to 100 degrees. 

Week 6 Picks Against the Spread 

Kansas State +5.5 over Baylor
Texas -5.5 over Florida
Texas Tech -11.5 over Houston 
Texas Tech, Houston under 52.5
Texas A&M, Miss. State over 55.5
2025 record: 17-12