Rhett Lashlee shouldn’t leave SMU for the head coaching vacancy at Arkansas because he already has a better job.

That sounds crazy, I know, but it is true.

Five years ago, it wasn’t. Today, it is. And even if you think that’s not true and Arkansas is a better job, Lashlee should wait for potential openings at Auburn, Florida, or even LSU.

Big-time jobs in college football are now about two things: Route to the College Football Playoff and resources. SMU provides Lashlee with an easier path to the CFP and a better financial situation. Remember, a $15-million roster goes a long way in the ACC. In the SEC, it puts you in the middle of the pack at best. 

At worst, SMU can be the fourth best job in the ACC behind Clemson, Miami, and Florida State. In the current SEC, where does Arkansas rank? At least nine jobs are better than the Arkansas gig. Maybe 12. The only programs in the SEC that are decidedly worse jobs than Arkansas are Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, and Kentucky. We can debate about Ole Miss, Missouri, and South Carolina. There is no debating against the other nine. 

The Mustangs have the money. They’re backed by multiple billionaires who are deadset on returning SMU to glory. And the early returns suggest that it can happen considering that the Ponies played in the ACC Championship game and the CFP in Year 1 as a Power Four program. Lashlee won’t make more money at Arkansas and even if the NIL money would be more, which is doubtful, the margins between SMU and the top spender in the ACC will be much narrower than Arkansas and the top spenders in the SEC.

The Razorbacks point to Bobby Petrino’s success at Arkansas as proof that the Hogs can return to SEC contention, but the job he was fired from is not the job that exists today. Arkansas won 10 games in 2010 and 11 games in 2011 under Petrino. The program is 65-88 since. And what happened in 2012 is important because that’s when Texas A&M and Missouri joined the SEC. In 2024, the conference added two teams with more resources and an easier route to success in Texas and Oklahoma. 

Sam Pittman went 32-34 at Arkansas before he was fired after Week 5. Chad Morris was 4-18 in a dreadful two-year stint. Before him, Bret Bielema was 29-34. We could argue that Pittman and Morris simply weren’t up for the job, but Bielema is proving at Illinois that he’s more than capable as a head coach. The problem isn’t the head coach, the problem is the program. More specifically, the problem is who the program is measured against. 

As in life, college athletics is about expectations. Win nine games at a program that expects six and you’re a legend. Win nine games at a program that expects to be in the CFP and you’re a loser. Arkansas fans don’t expect to be Alabama or Georgia, but they do still expect to occasionally compete for the SEC championship and to be one of the four or five teams in consideration for the CFP. But who can you jump to make that a reality? 

No such problem exists at SMU for Lashlee. His boosters give him the resources needed to compete against his peers and have a more realistic understanding of who they are as a football program. The Mustangs were lost in the desert for 40 years and Lashlee can become a legend on the Hilltop with the type of success that’d put him on the hot seat at an SEC program like Arkansas. He’s already the most revered and successful head coach at SMU since the 1980s.

SMU might lose Lashlee in the 2025 coaching cycle but it shouldn’t be to Arkansas; not unless his urge to return home outweighs the potential pitfalls. There are already five openings at the Power Four level after only four total last cycle. This coaching carousel will be a bloodbath and Arkansas won’t be the only SEC job to open. Auburn might as well and Lashlee has strong ties to the Tigers. Florida and LSU might also open depending on how the next 6-8 weeks turn out. 

When climbing the ladder in coaching, few stop to realize how good they have it where they’re at. Ask Scott Frost. Lashlee is in a similar position. He can win, and win big, where he’s at and bigger suitors with a more realistic route to success will come calling if he’s patient.