The college football experience isn’t much different than standing in line for a roller coaster at an amusement park. The wait lasts forever and the ride is short. That’s college football.

We spend an eternity in the offseason anticipating the season only for it to pass by in a blink of an eye. Ten of the 13 programs in Texas are 33 percent of the way through the regular season. The other three - Houston, Texas Tech, Texas A&M - are 25 percent of the way through since they've only played three games. 

The offseason predictions are starting to phase out as on-field reality sets in. The good news for the Lone Star State is that high expectations appear to be materializing. Texas Tech and TCU are two of the three betting favorites to win the Big 12. Texas and Texas A&M are ranked in the Top 10. North Texas is surging as a legit G5 playoff spot contender. 

Life is good at the FBS level in the Great State. Week 5 is a lighter slate with six of the 13 teams idle, but there are two marquee games and a few more pivotal ones across our landscape. Before the action starts on Friday night with TCU at Arizona State, here are my three questions for the week. 

THREE QUESTSIONS

1. Will the Aggies avoid a stereotypical letdown? 

Overcoming “Battered Aggie Syndrome” has very little to do with big games and more to do with what comes after. Texas A&M has won big games over the past decade. But the program hasn’t followed them up with success. It is a one step forward, two steps backwards situation in Aggieland. Mike Elko wants to change that and permanently end the trauma and move past the negativity, as he told fans at the Houston Touchdown Club after the Notre Dame win.  He doesn’t believe in curses and he thinks this version of Texas A&M should be judged on their own merit and not weighed down by the past. 

“I’m sorry but I had nothing to do with a majority of it,” Elko said last week. You love Texas A&M football, so get excited. Stop being scared and get excited about what this program is doing. It’s not fair to look at past failures and eliminate how you feel about where Texas A&M football is going.” 

Elko is right, of course. But that is far easier said than done. The Aggies have only won more than nine games once this century. They’ve only won more than eight twice since 2013. Take away 2020 and Texas A&M hasn’t finished inside the AP Top 10 since 2012, and before that it was 1994. Forgive your Texas A&M buddies if the win over Notre Dame didn’t shed the tag that the Aggies rarely reach internal expectations. 

The game against Auburn provides Elko an opportunity to prove his thesis. This is the type of game the Aggies stereotypically lose – favored, at home, after two weeks of praise. Avoid the letdown and Texas A&M should be 7-0 by the time it travels to LSU at the end of October. Lose this game and suddenly, 8-4 is back on the table. 

2. Is TCU truly a Big 12 contender? 

Our friends in the desert predicted TCU would be a mid-table team in the Big 12. The Frogs were +900 to win the Big 12 and the team total win projection was priced at 6.5 games. That was a lower win total than six other teams in the conference, including Kansas State and Baylor. After a 3-0 start that included wins over North Carolina and SMU, the Frogs are now at +500 to win the Big 12, tied for the second-best odds with Arizona Stat and only behind Texas Tech. Bettors who took over 6.5 wins (looking in the mirror) are already counting their winnings. 

TCU is one of the five best teams in the Big 12 and were underrated entering the season. But is Sonny Dykes’ squad truly one of the two or three Big 12 contenders? Texas Tech earned the right to call itself that with a road win over Utah in Week 4. TCU can claim the same with a road win over Arizona State on Friday night. The Horned Frogs are currently a 2.5-point underdog on the road against the Sun Devils. 

The TCU offense is flourishing through three weeks. Quarterback Josh Hoover leads the country in passing yards per game. Wide receiver Eric McAlister caught eight passes for over 250 yards and three touchdowns in the win over SMU in the final scheduled Iron Skillet. The run game, even with an injured Kevorian Barnes, looks improved on 2024. The defense, while not dominant, has caused turnovers and is playing better through three games in 2025 than they did through three games in 2024. 

TCU took a perception hit with the blowout loss to Georgia in the 2022 title game and the 2023 season opener defeat at home to Colorado. The 3-3 start to 2024 didn’t help the Frogs earn back public trust. The start to the 2025 season has made folks take notice and the Frogs are back in the AP Top 25. Beat Arizona State and TCU will be the trendy pick to face the Red Raiders for the Big 12 championship in December. 

3. Will UTEP get off the mat? 

The Miners hoped Year 2 of the Scotty Walden era would be a fulcrum moment for the program. UTEP signed the best recruiting class in Conference USA in back-to-back cycles. Former five-star Malachi Nelson arrived on campus. The impending move to the Mountain West was a win for the fan base and athletic department. And a quick look at the schedule revealed a path to at least six wins and only the second bowl invite since 2014. 

Well, a road loss to Utah State and a home defeat to ULM has dampened those expectations. The Miners are 1-3 entering the Conference USA opener, a home game against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are favored by 4.5 points in the Sun Bowl. The game after La Tech is against Liberty and that will feel like a true uphill battle. Lose on Saturday and the Miners are staring down a 1-5 start.

The city of El Paso wants to support UTEP. But the Sun City is also tired of gearing up for disappointing season after disappointing season. The low attendance for a winnable night game against ULM was a bad sign. Walden & Co. need to build some on-field momentum and that only comes by winning. The second half of the schedule is easier than the first, but UTEP needs some margin for error heading into the last six games of the season and a win over La Tech would be a huge boon for the current team. 

Picks Against the Spread 

TCU +3.5 over Arizona State 
Houston -13.5 over Oregon State 
Auburn +6.5 over Texas A&M
Oklahoma State +21 over Baylor
UTEP +3.5 over La Tech
2025 record: 14-10