The state of Texas takes center stage in the college football landscape in a loaded Week 4 slate.

Texas Tech heads to Utah to decide the early Big 12 favorite. Baylor hosts Arizona State in what feels like a Big 12 eliminator. SMU heads to Fort Worth to face off with TCU in the last scheduled Iron Skillet. And in the G5 ranks, North Texas travels to Army for an American Conference showdown. 

The action started Thursday night with Rice starting conference play against Charlotte. Eleven of the 13 FBS programs in Texas are in action this weekend with Houston and Texas A&M idle. Here are my three questions for the weekend. 

1. Who is for real? 

The Great State is home to numerous conference contenders, at least on paper. We’ll find out if those expectations are warranted for a handful of teams in Week 4. The only program we truly know about is Texas A&M following the Aggies’ road win over Notre Dame. The rest of the state feels up in the air. Texas Tech has been one of the most dominant teams in college football through three games, but it is tough to ignore who those games were against. Beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State doesn’t tell us much about the new-look Red Raiders. A trip to Utah absolutely will. 

Same can be said for TCU. The Horned Frogs embarrassed Bill Belichick’s North Carolina squad on Monday night in Week 1, but was that more about the Tar Heels or TCU? The matchup against SMU will reveal more about fair expectations for Sonny Dykes’ squad. That’s also true for SMU. The Ponies were sloppy in both wins over overmatched opponents and held a 14-point lead late against Baylor before losing in overtime. Was that a glitch or a sign for what’s to come in Year 2 as a Power Four program? 

Speaking of Baylor, the Bears start Big 12 play at home against defending champion Arizona State. It feels like every big game for Baylor is a positive or negative referendum on the Dave Aranda tenure. The comeback win over SMU slowed down the negativity following the home loss to Auburn in Week 1. A win over the Sun Devils puts the Bears squarely in Big 12 contention. A loss, especially if it’s because of another lackluster performance on defense, would raise eyebrows in Waco. 

North Texas is trending in the G5 ranks after a blowout win at home over Washington State. The Mean Green can put an exclamation point on those newfound expectations with a road win over Army, the defending American Conference champion. Remember, Eric Morris’ squad doesn’t play Tulane or Memphis and gets UTSA and South Florida in Denton. On paper, this is the biggest road test of the season. 

2. Why is the Iron Skillet going away?  

Crosstown rivals TCU and SMU will face off for the 104th time on Saturday in Fort Worth. Sadly, it is the last scheduled rendition of the Iron Skillet as greed and cowardice ruin another pillar of college football – a regional rivalry. I spoke to new TCU athletic director Mike Buddie on my stop to TCU in the spring while we were making the summer magazine and he indicated that the Frogs don’t have a ton of interest in scheduling SMU in the future and that the head coach – Sonny Dykes – has a large say in who TCU puts on the schedule. Dykes of course left SMU for TCU after the 2021 season and was ejected in the 2024 game last year. 

We get why Dykes doesn’t want to play the game. We also understand why TCU felt like it was an unnecessary risk to play SMU when the Mustangs were still a G5 program. Beating SMU did very little for the Horned Frogs. Losing hurt a lot, especially on the recruiting trail, which Dykes knows firsthand since he won the Skillet a couple of times while on the Hilltop. The Southwest Conference ended ahead of the 1997 seasons. TCU was 18-3 against SMU from 1997-2018. But since 2019, SMU has won three of five. 

It stinks that the Iron Skillet is going away as soon as it was getting fun again. TCU reached the national championship game in 2022. SMU reached the ACC championship game and the College Football Playoff in 2024. The fan bases care again and the hatred spewed from both sides on social media proves that this rivalry was picking up steam in the region and beyond. 

College football was built on regional rivalries. Shame on TCU for letting this one die for no tangible reason other than the head coach wanting to avoid trips back to his old program and the administration wanting an extra home game against an FCS team. Play your rivals. That’s what the sport is all about. 

3. If not now for Arch Manning, when? 

The company line on the Forty Acres following Texas’ loss to Ohio State on the road in Week 1 was that the passing game would find a rhythm ahead of the start of the SEC slate because the Horns faced San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston before a trip to The Swamp in early October. The feeling in Austin is now one of worry and dread after two more lackluster performances from Arch Manning and the passing game. Manning ranks near the bottom in every statistical category within the SEC and the Texas offense is last in the conference in third down conversions and red zone conversions. 

The good news for Texas is the Sam Houston defense is the perfect get-right game. As Rod Babers pointed out on Twitter, the Bearkats are 133rd in pass defense out of 136 teams. They’re 131st in passing touchdowns allowed, 113th in pass efficiency defense, and 115th in completion percentage allowed. If Manning and the Texas passing attack can’t look explosive and competent on Saturday in DKR, it simply won’t happen for the Horns in 2025. 

Week 4 Picks Against the Spread 

Texas Tech -3.5 over Utah 
TCU -6.5 over SMU
North Texas -2.5 over Army
Arizona State +2.5 over Baylor
Under 51.5 between Texas, Sam Houston 
UTEP -6.5 over ULM 
2025 record: 10-8