The eyes of the college football world will be squarely fixated on results involving Texas programs in Week 4.

Texas Tech heads to Utah. Baylor hosts Arizona State. The last scheduled Iron Skillet between SMU and TCU takes place in Fort Worth. In the G5 ranks, North Texas travels to Army in an early American Conference eliminator. Even the UTSA game at Colorado State will be revealing as the Roadrunners have not beaten an FBS team in 2025.

The FBS teams in Texas went 10-2 in Week 3 with Sam Houston idle. For the season, the 13 FBS programs in the Lone Star State are a combined 26-12. The Bearkats are responsible for three of those losses. Five of the other nine combined losses came against fellow in-state programs, such as Texas State knocking off UTSA and Baylor outlasting SMU. Three teams – Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech – are ranked inside the Top 20 of the latest AP Poll with TCU and Baylor sniffing the Top 25. Both were likely jump into the rankings ahead of Week 5 with wins on Saturday. 

Four teams from Texas have never finished the season ranked in the AP Poll. Three have finished ranked in the Top 25 six times this century, but only once since 2016. The changing dynamics of college football and the growing population in Texas have the programs in the state set up for success. 
 

“I think every school in the state of Texas has an advantage because we have a growing economy,” Texas Tech mega booster Cody Campbell told Dave Campbell’s Texas Football before the start of the season. “We have people who love football in the state of Texas, too. To be a school in the state of Texas, you have a massive advantage. You’re going to have donors at every school with the passion and capacity to give (to the football team) because everybody in Texas has made a lot of money over the last 10, 15 years.”  

Programs like Texas Tech and SMU have already proven that upward mobility is possible. TCU played for a national championship in 2022. Baylor won the Big 12 in 2021. Houston is 3-0 and is excelling on the recruiting trail. 

Football has long been part of the Texas Trilogy alongside faith and family. But national success hasn’t come easily for the college football teams in the state. Texas’ national championship in 2005 is the only one claimed by the state since the Longhorns won it in 1970 unless the two claimed by SMU in the 80s count. Texas A&M last won a national championship in 1939. TCU’s last was in 1938.  

That’s odd considering the high school talent that the Lone Star State produces. No state produces more NFL talent than Texas. The issue for programs outside of Texas and Texas A&M was convincing that talent to stay in-state. Oklahoma raided the Metroplex. SEC programs, specifically LSU, had success in East Texas. Over the last 10 to 15 years, programs such as Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State enjoyed more recruiting success in Texas as the sport became national and travel became easier. 

The new rules – especially revenue sharing – has provided new life and elevated expectations for programs not considered bluebloods. Players don’t need to go sit for three years at Bama or Ohio State. They can stay home and make real money while getting developed into NFL talent. That’s good news for SMU and the in-state Big 12 schools. The Aggies and Longhorns always recruit well so the fact they’re 5th and 6th, respectively, in the current 247Sports team recruiting rankings for the 2026 class isn’t a surprise. 

But SMU and Texas Tech being 21st and 22nd is. The 10-year recruiting ranking average at SMU is 72nd. For Texas Tech, it is 49th. Baylor’s 2026 class is currently 29th, eight spots ahead of its 10-year average. Houston sits at 38th, which is 24 spots above its 10-year average. TCU signed the best class in the Big 12 in the 2025 cycle. 

“I think Texas is going to be the center of the college football universe for the foreseeable future,” Campbell said. “We’ve always had a lot of great high school talent here, but for a long time, a lot of that talent left. Now, if you want to get paid and want to be where the most resources are, you’re probably staying in state. We’re also pulling recruits from other states as well because they can come to Texas and have a better experience in a bunch of different ways.” 

The advantages don’t only exist for the Power Four school. UTSA, North Texas, and Rice moved to the American Conference three seasons ago. Sam Houston joined the FBS ranks ahead of 2024. Texas State is a Pac-12 team starting next year. Tarleton State might be one of the next FCS to FBS programs. The future is bleak for most of the G5 programs in the country. There is real hope in the Lone Star State that the future is brighter than the past. Ask a fan of a MAC school and they’ll tell you – that’s not true everywhere.  

“Of the handful of G5 programs who can still make noise nationally, a couple of those are in Texas,” national college writer Steven Godfrey told DCTF ahead of the season. “If one of those schools put it all together, they can be the G5 CFP representative. I feel like there is a level of optimism in Texas that doesn’t exist everywhere else (in the G5).”  

Texas Tech beating Utah or North Texas knocking off Army won’t win any trophies for the state of Texas. Neither did Texas A&M’s victory at Notre Dame. But those triumphs do beget more success. Big wins and conference championship contention inspire larger fan attendance and donor support, which leads to better facilities and more resources, which help sign higher-rated recruits who are developed into better college players and that leads to more championships. 

Multiple teams in Texas are provided with a proof-of-concept opportunity in Week 4. Texas Tech can legitimize its massive investments through the portal with a win over Utah in Salt Lake City. The Mean Green and Eric Morris can rise from perennial .500 program to a legitimate G5 force with a win at Army. Baylor and Dave Aranda can stop any backslide in momentum with a home win over Arizona State. SMU can win its fourth Iron Skillet in six years or Sonny Dykes and TCU can step out of 2022’s shadow and become Big 12 contenders with a roster he built. 

Maybe everyone doesn’t like the shifting sands in college football. The transfer portal and revenue-share component have undoubtedly changed the sport, it is up to you to decide if it is for better or worse. But if you root for a program in Texas, those changes were advantageous and they provide a rare opportunity for upward mobility in a sport that’s rarely allowed it. 

Texas A&M took a step towards changing the narrative and writing a new, better story with the program’s first win over a ranked non-conference opponent since 1979. Week 4 is a chance for a few other programs in Texas to do the same.