The landscape of college football has drastically changed over the last few years and that’s upended the understood hierarchy across the Lone Star State.

Texas and Texas A&M remain the top two jobs because of the SEC, a storied history, and the ability to sign Top 10 recruiting classes on a yearly basis. Texas is the top job and A&M is a close second. That’s a fact. 

But what is less clear is who comes next. For most of the 21st century, the answer was TCU or Baylor. With NIL and conference realignment, Texas Tech, SMU, and Houston are throwing their hats into the ring.

So, what is the third-best job in the Great State of Texas? We look at the pros and cons of each of the other five Power Four programs to come up with an answer. 

BAYLOR BEARS 

The case for: Recent success
The Bears have won three Big 12 championships since 2013 and played for a fourth in 2019. The last one came in 2021 – more recent than any of the other teams in the running. That success can’t be contributed to one coach, either. Art Briles, Matt Rhule, and now Dave Aranda have all at least played for a Big 12 crown. The secret to Baylor’s success is leadership. Athletic director Mack Rhoades arrived in 2016 and is considered one of the best leaders in the country by his peers. There is a lot to like about the Baylor job.

The case against: Location and big money support
Location doesn’t hurt Baylor too much considering Waco is only two hours from DFW and Austin but it isn’t a strength like it is for the two programs in the Metroplex or the Cougars in Houston. The Bears can’t simply recruit their backyard to compete for Big 12 championships and College Football Playoff invitations. And it isn’t like the Bears lack big money donors or have rundown facilities, but is the buy-in on paying players the same as it is at Texas Tech or SMU right now? 

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HOUSTON COUGARS 

The case for: Location 
No city produces more NFL talent than Houston. Currently, 37 players from the Houston-area play in the NFL, which is more than other hubs such as Miami, Atlanta, or Dallas. The Cougars could put together a Big 12 contender without leaving the area. That’s a huge advantage for a program now in the Power Four ranks. 

The case against: Infrastructure and support 
Decades of being left out in the cold after the collapse of the Southwest Conference pushed the Cougars down the list of top programs in Texas. Over the last 10 recruiting cycles, Houston’s average class ranked 62nd nationally and trailed the in-state Big 12 programs by a wide margin. The lack of big-time football also cost Houston in fanfare and donor money. Can the Coogs catch up under new leadership and find the money to compete with the other teams on the list? The answer to that likely determines whether Willie Fritz can push them to the top of the Big 12. 

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SMU MUSTANGS

The case for: Money and the city of Dallas 
The existence of Dave Miller and Bill Armstrong – and plenty of others with deep pockets – allowed SMU to essentially buy its way back into major college football when the Mustangs turned down media rights money to join the ACC. Armstrong and others also helped head coach Rhett Lashlee build a roster that could compete right away, which resulted in a spot in the ACC championship game and the CFP last season. The city of Dallas is the ace in the sleeve in recruiting and in the transfer portal. SMU is beginning to recruit at the level of TCU, Texas Tech, and Baylor. 

The case against: History and the future of the ACC
Will the ACC even exist in 10 years? Probably not in the way it is currently constructed with Clemson, Florida State, and Miami clearly looking for an exit when afforded the opportunity in five or so years. If the Super League comes, will the Ponies get an invite? They were dormant for decades after the Death Penalty and only recently crawled back into relevancy. Staying power matters and it is up to SMU – on the field and off – to prove that none of this is a fluke. 

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TCU HORNED FROGS 

The case for: Recruiting base and success 
No team in Tier 2 has won more games than TCU (67) or holds a higher recruiting average over the last 10 years (30th) than the Horned Frogs. TCU has led this group of programs in recruiting rankings seven times over the last 10 cycles and was second in 2024. The only true outliers were 2020 and the cycle that Gary Patterson was replaced by Sonny Dykes. Being the lone Power Four program in DFW benefited the Frogs for years and that’s allowed them to build a recruiting base that’s hard to topple. They signed the Big 12’s top recruiting class last year, which ranked 24th nationally. TCU also has plenty of money in donor support and great facilities.

The case against: No longer the only show in town 
The return of SMU to major college football puts a wrench in TCU’s path to success. It can no longer recruit as the only show in town. SMU has beaten TCU three of the last four years and could start encroaching on the Frogs’ recruiting footprint. The most obvious case was in the 2025 class when the Ponies flipped quarterback Ty Hawkins from TCU. DFW was always a crowded market because every major program recruits there, but there was a huge advantage to being the only hometown option for P4 football and that no longer exists. 

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TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

The case for: Money and fan base 
Cody Campbell and John Sellers are on a mission to bring Texas Tech to the forefront in athletics and football is the lead wagon. The Red Raiders money whipped their way to the championship series in softball and they hope the added resources in football – NIL, coaching staff, brand new facilities – helps them do the same on the gridiron. Texas Tech signed the nation’s top portal class and are all-in for Joey McGuire heading into Year 4. No team in the Big 12 is as well-supported financially by their boosters now. It’s also a large public school with a huge alumni base compared to private schools like TCU, SMU, and Baylor.

The case against: History and location 
The ceiling is now the floor at Texas Tech. With the financial support comes new expectations. The Red Raiders haven’t won a conference championship since 1976. Mike Leach and Spike Dykes couldn’t do it, but the fan base – and those billionaire donors – will expect McGuire to break through quickly. And while location might not be as important as it was 20 years ago in recruiting, signing prospects to Lubbock out of high school is trickier because it is hours away from most of the top prospects in the state. 

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My answer: TCU 

Much of college football is changing but the route to success remains the same: Sign the best players out of high school. Until proven otherwise on a consistent basis, the program with the easiest time doing that is TCU. SMU’s emergence and Texas Tech’s dedication make this answer harder than it was a few years ago. And Baylor has a legitimate claim because of its success under three different coaches over the last 15 years. But if I was offered a head coaching job at all five of these programs, I think my path to winning consistently would be easiest in Fort Worth. But like all things in modern college football, that is subject to change in a hurry and we’re mostly splitting hairs.