Texas State University president Kelly Damphousse is a fan of The Duck’s Serenity, Picture yourself on a lake watching a duck glide across the water, seemingly without effort. If you could see underneath the surface, however, the duck’s webbed feet are powering along and powering the movement forward. 

The life lesson is straightforward: Stay calm on the surface, paddle like crazy beneath. The final domino of conference realignment could be falling in San Marcos as Damphousse’s Bobcats could be swimming towards a Pac-12 invite. ESPN’s Pete Thamel said Texas State is the favorite to get an invite to become the eighth member of the conference and sources tell Dave Campbell’s Texas Football that the Bobcats would accept. 

The buyout to leave the Sun Belt for the 2026-27 season rises from $5 million to $10 million after July 1, so expect this to happen over the next couple of weeks if Texas State does indeed receive an invitation. The university reportedly turned down a verbal offer to join the Mountain West last fall. Fellow Texas program, UTEP, accepted an invitation and are leaving Conference USA for the MWC after the 2025-26 school year. 

The Pac-12 was ripped apart when USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon left for the Big Ten, which caused Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado to join the Big 12. Washington State and Oregon State lost the game of musical chairs, but rebuilt with the additions of Fresno State, Boise State, San Diego State, and Colorado State last year. Utah State was added after a failed attempt to add UNLV and Air Force. The conference needs eight full-time institutions with football teams to qualify for the postseason. 

And that’s where Texas State enters the picture. The Bobcats have unified leadership that cares about athletics in Damphousse and athletic director Don Coryell. The university has over 40,000 students and has won eight games in back-to-back seasons. The school is also close to major airports in Austin and San Antonio. 

The motivation for Texas State to leave the Sun Belt is simple: Money. The Sun Belt media rights deal pays out approximately $2 million per school. While the new Pac-12 deal is not complete, expectations are that the payout would be closer to $7-9 million per school. Even with additional travel costs, the Bobcats would come out swimmingly. 

Expect this to be settled one way or another by the end of June.