The most polarizing quarterback in Texas isn’t Arch Manning. Or Kevin Jennings. Or even Sawyer Robertson, Behren Morton or Josh Hoover.

The signal-caller who holds the most sway in the Lone Star State is Marcel Reed at Texas A&M. As he goes, or doesn’t go, so will the Aggies. 

Preseason expectations for Texas A&M in Year 2 under Mike Elko are varied. ESPN made waves by releasing its preseason FPI (Football Power Index), which had the Aggies ranked as the eighth-best team in America. SP+ lists Texas A&M at 15th, Josh Pate ranked them at 14th and Athlon has the Aggies at 19th in its preseason magazine. However, Brandon Marcello left Elko’s squad off his post-spring Top 25 at CBS Sports.

Some believe Elko's crew can reach the College Football Playoffs. Others believe that same team could struggle to reach a bowl game. 

That variance can only be attributed to one thing: Reed. In short, your opinion on the Texas A&M squad in 2025 is directly tied to how you rate Reed as a quarterback. The Aggies are a no-brainer CFP contender if the quarterback isn’t considered a weakness. And since Texas A&M is in the Top 15 of some high-profile rankings, some believe Reed can become a winning quarterback in the SEC. 

And clearly Elko and the coaching staff agree. The Aggies have plenty of money in the war chest. If they wanted a new quarterback in the transfer portal, they could’ve landed one. Instead, Texas A&M is all-in on Reed, who was 4-4 as a starter last season. The teams he beat – Florida, Bowling Green, Arkansas, and New Mexico State – were a combined 25-26 last season. The four losses as a starter were to squads with a combined 34-20 record. 

But nothing is more important for a quarterback than experience and Reed earned that unexpectedly last season when Conner Weigman was injured early in the year. Reed eventually became the full-time starter on Oct. 26, when he led a comeback victory over LSU at Kyle Field. Elko believes that his experience in 2024, plus going through an entire offseason as the starter, can only help Reed reach his ceiling. 

“I think we’ll see some big growth from him,” Elko said this spring. “From a maturity standpoint, he now understands what it takes to be a successful quarterback in this conference. He understands the urgency of preparation, the urgency of really locking in on all those little details.” 

Texas A&M is trying to break free of SEC purgatory. The program has won between seven and nine games in all but two seasons since joining the conference in 2012. One of those was that debut year when Johnny Manziel led them to 11 victories. The other was in 2022 when Jimbo Fisher’s group finished 5-7. Every other season outside of the 2020 pandemic-altered campaign ended with at least three conference losses. 

Elko was hired to raise the ceiling in Aggieland and to reach the fan base’s lofty expectations. He won a respectable eight games in Year 1, but Texas A&M didn’t find $80 million dollars to end the Fisher era for more of the same. Those wants and needs were pronounced by rival Texas’ instant success in the SEC. After all, college football is only as fun as it is miserable for your closest enemies. 

On paper, Texas A&M is poised for a breakout season. The Aggies return the sixth-most production in FBS with 70% of the offense back and 73% of the defense returning to campus. That includes the seven-best offensive linemen and a stable of running backs headlined by Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels. The wide receiver and tight end rooms were reinforced through the portal and Elko believes his defense will take giant steps forward in a second year in the system. 

So why isn’t Texas A&M a breakout candidate on every national podcast and outlet in America? Because not everyone is sold on Reed, specifically as a vertical passer. He only threw the ball twice in that thrilling comeback win over LSU that earned him the starting job. He threw for at least one interception in the five starts after the LSU win, including two in the Las Vegas Bowl loss to USC. He completed just 27.8% (10 of 36) of his passes that were 20+ yards down the field for a PFF rating of 58.4 on those throws. 

Texas A&M should lead the SEC in rushing and Reed will contribute on the ground. He’s one of the top rushing quarterbacks in FBS and his offensive coordinator, Collin Klein, became a Heisman finalist as a player with a similar skill set as Reed. If anyone can get the most out of a quarterback more comfortable rushing than passing, it is Klein. 

Maybe Texas A&M won’t need Reed to be an elite passer in half of its games to win. But on the road against Notre Dame or LSU or Texas, the Aggies will need Reed to win with his arm. Last year, he couldn’t do that. But that doesn’t mean he can’t this year, especially with improved weapons around him. Elko knows that. 

“A lot of emphasis was placed on improving the downfield passing game,” Elko said. “That’s something we want to get better at.” 

Improving the vertical passing game changes Texas A&M’s 2025 ceiling. With it, 10 wins and a trip to the College Football Playoff isn’t a mirage. Without it, the Aggies probably land in familiar water with seven to nine wins and another trip to a meaningless bowl game.