Readers often inquire about how I determine my conference predictions in the summer magazine. It’s not a complicated or scientific formula. I start by separating teams into tiers from top to bottom. Some conferences are more top-heavy with as many as five or six teams capable of winning the title. Others have one or two teams with a significant talent advantage compared to the rest of the conference.

My next step is to understand that the home team wins nearly 60 percent of college football games, which means the road team must be significantly better to predict a victory. If two teams are in the same tier, the game is considered a toss-up, and the home team is awarded the win. Conference games are denoted by an asterisk next to the opponent's name.

Abilene Christian

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	at Tulsa	L
Sept. 6	SFA	W
Sept. 13	at TCU	L
Sept. 20	Austin Peay*	W
Sept. 27	at UIW	L
Oct. 4	North Alabama*	W
Oct. 11	at West Georgia*	W
Oct. 18	at Southern Utah*	L
Nov. 1	Tarleton*	L
Nov. 8	Utah Tech*	W
Nov. 15	at Eastern Kentucky*	L
Nov. 22	at Central Arkansas*	L

Prediction: 5-7, 4-4 UAC

Ceiling: 10-2

If ACU concludes a brutal September schedule with a 3-2 record and a road win over UIW, the Wildcats could roll to another United Athletic Conference title and a top seed in the FCS playoffs.

Floor: 3-9

Games against two FBS teams and three quality FCS opponents could leave ACU riddled with injuries, leading to depth concerns with quality UAC opponents remaining on the schedule.

East Texas A&M

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	at SMU	L
Sept. 6	at Florida State	L
Sept. 20	at Grambling	L
Sept. 27	NC Central	L
Oct. 4	at Northwestern State*	W
Oct. 11	Lamar*	L
Oct. 18	at UIW*	L
Oct. 25	SFA*	L
Nov. 1	at Southeastern*	L
Nov. 8	McNeese*	L
Nov. 15	Houston Christian*	W
Nov. 22	at UTRGV*	W

Prediction: 3-9, 3-5 SLC

Ceiling: 6-6

Should ETAMU survive their first two games against Power Four foes, the Lions could gain momentum the next two weeks and possibly pull out an unexpected win at home in conference.

Floor: 1-11

The season could go south in a hurry if the Lions are unable to rebound after playing SMU and Florida State, which could leave ET seeking to avoid a winless season against UTRGV.

Houston Christian

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 28	Arkansas Baptist	W
Sept. 6	at Eastern Kentucky	L
Sept. 13	at Nebraska	L
Sept. 20	Northern Colorado	W
Oct. 4	at UTRGV*	W
Oct. 11	Northwestern State*	W
Oct. 18	at McNeese*	L
Oct. 25	Southeastern*	L
Nov. 1	at Nicholls*	L
Nov. 8	SFA*	L
Nov. 15	at East Texas A&M*	L
Nov. 22	UIW*	L

Prediction: 4-8, 2-6 SLC

Ceiling: 7-5

HCU uses the momentum of winning four of its first six games to pull off two or three unexpected wins against its remaining SLC foes.

Floor: 1-11

The Huskies open the season with a decisive victory, but consecutive road games against Eastern Kentucky and FBS Nebraska could lead to a disastrous 2025 campaign.

Lamar

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	at North Texas	L
Sept. 6	South Dakota	L
Sept. 13	at Texas Southern	W
Sept. 27	Central Arkansas	W
Oct. 4	Nicholls*	W
Oct. 11	at East Texas A&M*	W
Oct. 18	UTRGV*	W
Oct. 25	at Northwestern State*	W
Nov. 1	at UIW*	L
Nov. 8	Southeastern*	W
Nov. 15	at SFA*	L
Nov. 22	McNeese*	W

Prediction: 8-4, 6-2 SLC

Ceiling: 9-3

The Cardinals realize they can compete with one of the top teams in the FCS against South Dakota and ride that confidence to the program’s first FCS playoff appearance since 2018.

Floor: 5-7

Need a way to measure the improvement of Lamar’s football program under Peter Rossomando? The Cardinals' floor this year is five wins, a mark the program only achieved five times since reinstating football in 2010 before Rossomando arrived in 2023.

Prairie View A&M

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	at Texas Southern*	W
Sept. 6	UTRGV	W
Sept. 13	at Rice	L
Sept. 20	Northwestern State	W
Sept. 27	Grambling* (Cotton Bowl)	W
Oct. 4	at Alcorn*	L
Oct. 18	at Southern*	L
Oct. 25	Lincoln (Calif.)	W
Nov. 1	Alabama State*	W
Nov. 8	at Alabama A&M*	W
Nov. 15	Arkansas-Pine Bluff*	W
Nov. 22	Mississippi Valley State*	W

Prediction: 9-3, 6-2 SWAC

Ceiling: 11-1

Tremaine Jackson wasn’t joking when he said he was going to take the Panthers to the top of the SWAC. The only guaranteed loss on this schedule is at Rice.

Floor: 6-6

The floor isn’t as low as the haters might hope. The schedule is favorable for a big season, with home games against UTRGV and Northwestern State, and four wins are almost inevitable in their final five games. 

Stephen F. Austin

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 28	at Houston	L
Sept. 6	at ACU	L
Sept. 13	Sul Ross State	W
Sept. 20	Cal Poly	W
Sept. 27	McNeese*	W
Oct. 4	at UIW*	L
Oct. 18	Nicholls*	W
Oct. 25	at East Texas A&M*	W
Nov. 1	UTRGV*	W
Nov. 8	at Houston Christian*	W
Nov. 15	Lamar*	W
Nov. 20	at Northwestern State*	W

Prediction: 9-3, 7-1 SLC

Ceiling: 11-1

The stars align for Colby Carthel and the ‘Jacks in 2025, following a narrow road loss at Houston that raised eyebrows across the world. SFA rides the momentum to a top seed in the FCS playoffs.

Floor: 5-7

The minimum SFA supporters will accept in 2025 is an FCS playoff berth. Anything less will result in a rapidly-warming seat for Carthel.

Tarleton

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 23	at Portland State	W
Aug. 29	at Army	L
Sept. 6	Mississippi Valley State	W
Sept. 13	at Central Arkansas*	W
Sept. 20	Chattanooga	W
Oct. 4	Southern Utah*	W
Oct. 11	at Utah Tech*	W
Oct. 18	West Georgia*	W
Oct. 25	at Eastern Kentucky*	L
Nov. 1	at ACU*	W
Nov. 15	North Alabama*	W
Nov. 22	Austin Peay*	W

Prediction: 10-2, 7-1 UAC

Ceiling: 11-1

A loss at West Point is the only blemish on the Texans' 2025 schedule, leading to their first UAC title and a top seed in the FCS playoffs.

Floor: 4-8

This is not an easy schedule, with non-conference games against Portland State and Chattanooga in addition to the challenging UAC. The Texans could face a rough fall if the season takes a turn for the worse.

Texas Southern

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	Prairie View A&M*	L
Sept. 6	at California	L
Sept. 13	Lamar	L
Sept. 27	at Mississippi Valley State*	W
Oct. 4	Arkansas-Pine Bluff*	W
Oct. 11	at Grambling*	L
Oct. 18	Virginia-Lynchburg	W
Nov. 1	Alcorn State*	W
Nov. 8	at Alabama State*	L
Nov. 15	at Southern*	L
Nov. 22	Alabama A&M*	W

Prediction: 5-6, 4-4 SWAC

Ceiling: 9-2

Cris Dishman’s second season at TSU turns magical, and the Tigers make a run to the SWAC championship game. California and Lamar are the only probable losses on their schedule.

Floor: 1-10

Things can spiral quickly in the SWAC, and the Tigers' schedule isn’t exactly favorable. TSU’s homecoming contest against Virginia-Lynchburg is the only guaranteed victory.

UIW

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 23	at Nicholls*	W
Aug. 30	Eastern Washington	W
Sept. 13	at UTSA	L
Sept. 20	at Northern Arizona	W
Sept. 27	ACU	W
Oct. 4	SFA*	W
Oct. 18	East Texas A&M*	W
Oct. 25	at UTRGV*	W
Nov. 1	Lamar*	W
Nov. 8	at Northwestern State*	W
Nov. 15	Southeastern*	W
Nov. 22	at Houston Christian*	W

Prediction: 11-1, 8-0 SLC

Ceiling: 12-0

It’s not inconceivable that UIW runs the table, including a win over UTSA inside the Alamodome. The Cardinals have continued to gain prominence in the FCS under Clint Killough, a notable feat. 

Floor: 5-7

Tampering and the transfer portal took a toll on UIW’s roster after spring practice, and the results quickly show in a lack of depth at key positions. 

UTRGV

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	Sul Ross State	W
Sept. 6	at Prairie View A&M	L
Sept. 13	Langston	W
Sept. 20	Texas Wesleyan	W
Sept. 27	at Southeastern*	L
Oct. 4	Houston Christian*	L
Oct. 18	at Lamar*	L
Oct. 25	UIW*	L
Nov. 1	at SFA*	L
Nov. 8	Nicholls*	L
Nov. 15	at McNeese*	L
Nov. 22	East Texas A&M*	L

Prediction: 3-9, 0-8 SLC

Ceiling: 5-7

Travis Bush and his coaching staff have built a team capable of competing against FCS teams in its first year as a program. Vackar Stadium quickly establishes itself as a true homefield advantage for the Vaqueros.

Floor: 2-10

The Valley will be electric this season regardless of UTRGV’s record. Still, a win against one of the top NAIA teams in Texas Wesleyan isn’t guaranteed.