College football returns in the state of Texas in 99 days when Sam Houston travels to Western Kentucky in Week Zero. The other 12 FBS programs in the Lone Star State begin the season the following weekend headlined by the clash between the Texas Longhorns and Ohio State Buckeyes. 

Circa Sports released early win totals for the Power Four teams across the country, including the seven programs that play at that level here in the Lone Star State. Should you bet the over or the under? Here’s where we stand. 

TEXAS LONGHORNS 

Win total projection: 9.5
Our lean: Over 

The Horns have posted consecutive 11-1 records in the regular season and a 10-2 mark cashes the over in 2025. The two most dangerous games are at Ohio State and at Georgia. Obviously, the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma and the regular season finale against Texas A&M are tricky. So is the road trip to the Swamp to face DJ Lagway and Florida the week before playing the Sooners.

We believe Texas is a Top 3 team in the country entering the season so we’ll bet on a 10-win regular season and another trip to the SEC championship game. The defense is loaded at every level with a superstar and Arch Manning and a new cast of characters on offense should be fine with Steve Sarkisian calling plays. 

TEXAS A&M AGGIES 

Win total projection: 8
Our lean: Push 

Eight wins sounds right in Mike Elko’s Year 2 because the schedule is tougher. The Aggies must travel to Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas in 2025. Lose all three of those and that only leaves one more loss before a push. Two more and Texas A&M hits the under, which we believe is more likely than the over. Much of this bet comes down to how you feel about Marcel Reed. Can he become a plus as a passer? If so, the Aggies might be a College Football Playoff team. The run game should be great, in large part because of Reed, and the defense should take a step forward. The home schedule includes Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina. Finding nine wins takes some faith, and faith will put you in the poor house as a sports bettor. 

BAYLOR BEARS 

Win total projection: 7.5
Our lean: Over 

We’re on record that Baylor is a legit Big 12 contender in 2025. The Bears return quarterback Sawyer Robertson, running back Bryson Washington, and wide receiver Josh Cameron. The offensive line returns four starters, and Dave Aranda & Co. believe in the personnel on defense after a solid portal cycle. We’ll know early in the season if this bet was a good one or not because Baylor starts with Auburn, SMU, and Arizona State by the end of September. Most of the toughest games are at home, however. Eight wins sounds right. 

HOUSTON COUGARS 

Win total projection: 6.5
Our lean: Under 

This was the most shocking line. Improving from four wins to seven wins with the turnover the Cougars faced this offseason would be one of the more impressive feats in Willie Fritz’s coaching career. And that includes a multitude of impressive feats. Houston likely starts nine transfers on offense and at least five or six on defense. Both coordinators are also new. The schedule is manageable, however, at least on paper. A 4-0 start is possible and games against Texas Tech and TCU are in Houston. Trips to Baylor and Arizona State are tough. We won’t pretend to know what will happen in the Big 12, but it feels safer to assume six wins than seven for Houston. 

TCU HORNED FROGS 

Win total projection: 6.5
Our lean: Over 

One bet we would’ve lost was that Houston and TCU had the same win total projections. The Horned Frogs should be considered a dark horse in the Big 12. Quarterback Josh Hoover returns behind an experienced offensive line. The offense will score points. Year 2 under defensive coordinator Andy Avalos should pay dividends, especially as a few key missing pieces from last year return from major injuries. TCU believes in its recruiting and developing and didn’t raid the transfer portal or make big changes on the staff. The Frogs are betting on continuity and we believe that results in at least seven wins. We’d probably still bet the over if it was 7.5. 

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

Win total projection: 8.5
Our lean: Over 

Texas Tech better hit the over here or it’ll be considered a disappointing season in Lubbock. High expectations are the price to pay in Year 4 under Joey McGuire because no team in America made a bigger investment to improve the roster this offseason. The Red Raiders signed the best transfer portal class in America with an emphasis on the lines of scrimmage. They also hired two new coordinators and unveiled a $250 million dollar facility upgrade. Texas Tech is all in, and a trip to the Big 12 championship game is the expectation. That’ll require nine wins or more. The schedule looks favorable and the roster is the most expensive in the Big 12. 

SMU MUSTANGS 

Win total projection: 8.5
Our lean: Under

A quick peek behind how I formulate record predictions in the magazine: I list the wins and losses that are highly probable and then split the coin flip games. For SMU, the expected losses are to Miami and Clemson. The coin flips are Baylor and TCU. Maybe a team like Louisville also falls in there. The number of new faces, especially on defense and at the skill positions on offense, and the assumption that the Mustangs can’t recapture the magic from last season led us to believe that the Ponies land around eight wins. Games against Nevada, Louisville, and Duke could’ve easily gone the other way. Gambling is mostly a math equation, so we’re betting on that leveling out in 2025. An 8-4 season would be a great year for SMU, just not one that would cash the over.