Before we get into this week’s edition of Four Downs, we started a live blog of all the non-FBS action across Texas. The Week 2 blog lasted 13 hours and 35 minutes, with over 5,100 words. Let me know your thoughts on this, and you can catch up on last week’s blog here. Jonathan Hull mentioned this as something people would be interested in and that was confirmed by the rest of Dave Campbell’s Texas Football editorial team. Look for a live blog of Week 3 on Saturday.

We’ve had three weeks of the 2024 college football season, and most teams outside of NCAA Division III and NJCAA have played at least two games. This means we have some data points to revisit the preseason predictions in Dave Campbell’s Texas Football summer magazine.

I’ll revisit the DIII and NJCAA predictions next week. I’m still processing Saturday’s DIII results and reminding myself to avoid overreacting to the outcome of the season's first game. However, I will discuss some of the upsets on fourth down this week.

First Down: Updated FCS predictions

The Southland Conference magazine prediction had UIW as champion, followed by Nicholls, Stephen F. Austin, Lamar, Houston Christian, McNeese, Southeastern, Texas A&M-Commerce, and Northwestern State.

It’s difficult to make any changes to these predictions after two weeks, considering many teams have yet to play an FCS opponent. I still believe UIW is the team to beat this year, and Lamar has improved, as expected. One team that I think will be much better than anticipated in the preseason is Texas A&M-Commerce. The changes Clint Dolezel made to the roster and the coaching staff during the offseason have produced a team that will be competitive in every contest this year.

The magazine's SWAC West Division predictions placed Prairie View A&M at the top, followed by Grambling, Alcorn, Southern, Texas Southern, and UAPB.

This division race will be fun to watch this year, with so much parity throughout. At this moment, I believe Texas Southern is much better than expected in Cris Dishman’s first season and made the race for the West a five-team race. 

The United Athletic Conference sees the most movement after two weeks. The magazine's preseason favorite was Tarleton, followed by Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian, Eastern Kentucky, North Alabama, Utah Tech, and West Georgia.

I believe Tarleton remains the team to beat in the UAC this year. However, Central Arkansas and ACU have closed the gap, making this a three-team race. Southern Utah isn’t far behind the top three. West Georgia and Utah Tech are better than anticipated, while Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky appear worse than predicted. It feels like 2024 will be a rough year for North Alabama.

Second Down: Updated LSC predictions

After the early season results, my hope for a Texas team winning the Lone Star Conference this season is fading. Central Washington was my preseason pick, followed by Angelo State, UTPB, Texas A&M-Kingsville, Eastern New Mexico, Midwestern State, West Texas A&M, Western Oregon, Western New Mexico, and newcomer Sul Ross State.

CWU maintains the top spot for now. Their only result is against FCS San Diego, and next week's trip to Colorado Mesa will provide a better understanding of the Wildcats. Last week, I wrote about UTPB being a national threat. I still believe that to be the case, but the Falcons have some soul-searching to do after their performance on the road against Colorado State-Pueblo. UTPB did not play with the energy and passion typically seen from a Kris McCullough squad, and they must find that fire soon.

There’s a ton of parity among the remaining teams in the LSC for varying reasons. Angelo State, Texas A&M-Kingsville, and Midwestern State all have a solid defense, but questions surround each team's offense. ASU and Kingsville are searching for a quarterback capable of creating enough in the passing attack to complement the running game. MSU might have found some answers to its offense in a loss at Western Colorado. The Mustangs' vaunted rushing attack was shut down, but starting quarterback Sean Jastrab threw for 395 yards - the fifth-most single-game passing yards in program history.

Eastern New Mexico and West Texas A&M have offenses capable of causing problems for opposing teams. These teams can win each game if they get more production from the defense. Good luck to defensive coordinators trying to stop ENMU’s triple-option attack or the dual-threat capabilities of WT quarterback Sean Johnson.

Sul Ross, Western New Mexico, and Western Oregon will likely finish toward the bottom of the standings but can surprise a few teams. The Lobos are unquestionably more competitive than I anticipated over the summer.

Third Down: Updated SAC predictions

In the summer magazine, I had Louisiana Christian atop the Sooner Athletic Conference, followed by Texas Wesleyan, OUAZ, Langston, Nelson (formerly SAGU), Wayland Baptist, Oklahoma Panhandle State, North American, Texas College, and Arkansas Baptist.

Through two weeks, I believe the Rams are the favorite to win the SAC in coach Brad Sherrod’s first season. Texas Wesleyan has defeated two teams ranked in the preseason top 25, including a 35-33 win over conference rival OUAZ on Saturday. Add in LCU’s decisive defeat at St. Thomas and the Rams are the current favorite. OUAZ, LCU, and Langston will be close behind if the Rams begin to slip.

Nelson hasn’t played a game yet, and OPSU defeated WBU in Week 1. The Pioneers rebounded with a victory over NAU on Saturday. Texas College continues to have issues getting players eligible but is 2-0 to start the season and could finish with four or five wins, while North American and Arkansas Baptist will battle to stay out of the cellar.

Fourth Down: Rankings mean nothing

Let’s begin with the teams who took care of business. No. 21 Tarleton defeated HCU, and No. 16 Hardin-Simmons opened ASC action and the season with a dominant victory at Howard Payne. 

There were some eye-opening surprises, such as Texas Lutheran upsetting No. 13 Trinity in San Antonio. Texas Wesleyan might not have surprised many people with a 35-33 win over No. 16 OUAZ, but it’s time for the nation to take notice of a Rams team with two wins over ranked opponents, including defeating No. 20 Lindsey Wilson in Week 1.

Four teams fell short against higher-ranked foes. UIW battled two-time reigning national champion South Dakota State on the road before losing 45-24. Midwestern State nearly upset No. 15 Western Colorado in Gunnison, Colorado, but turnovers proved costly for the Mustangs. 

The Clint Dolezel offense finally started working in the second half. However, Ron Peace’s 457 passing yards were enough to scare but not defeat No. 18 UC Davis on the road. West Texas A&M battled but left Golden, understanding why Colorado School of Mines has finished as national runner-up the last two seasons.

Now for the not-so-good. No. 21 UTPB was punched in the mouth and had no response in an upset loss at Colorado State-Pueblo. Meanwhile, Angelo State is 0-2 despite not allowing more than 21 points in either game.