Best Case, Worst Case for 2024: TCU Horned Frogs

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With spring football and the portal movement slowing down (fingers crossed) forecasting the 2024 season becomes an easier proposition. The 13 FBS programs in the Lone Star State share a common feeling heading into June: Hope. New faces and new opportunities provide a fresh slate for rosters and coaching staff. 

The 2024 season is a new day for the Great State. Texas reunites with Texas A&M in the SEC and SMU joins the P4 as ACC members. But what are the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team in the upcoming season? We’ll breakdown at each one.

Previous best/worst case scenario pieces for 2024: Texas | Texas A&M | UTSA | Texas State


2023 record: 5-7 
2024 schedule
Aug. 30                 at Stanford       
Sept. 7                  Long Island      
Sept. 14                UCF      
Sept. 21                at SMU                 
Sept. 28                at Kansas          
Oct. 5                    Houston             
Oct. 19                  at Utah                
Oct. 26                  Texas Tech        
Nov. 2                    at Baylor             
Nov. 9                    Oklahoma State            
Nov. 23                  Arizona                
Nov. 30                  at Cincinnati   

Best case for 2024: The Frogs demonstrated their ceiling in Year 1 under Sonny Dykes when Max Duggan led the program to 13 wins, including one over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl en route to becoming the first team from Texas to play for a national championship since Texas in 2009. Dykes believes that magic is back thanks to quarterback Josh Hoover, a talented group of skill players, a revamped offensive line, and a new play-making defense. 

The ceiling for TCU is a Big 12 championship. The 2021 team won five games before exploding in 2022. Baylor won two back in 2020 before claiming the Big 12 championship a year later. Oklahoma State lost to South Alabama in 2023 before rolling to the title game. The point is that the margins are small in the Big 12 and Funky Town can be home to a Big 12 contender if Hoover takes a step forward and new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos works out. 

Worst case for 2024: The Frogs also demonstrated their floor in Year 2 of the Dykes era when the group failed to reach a bowl game. Dykes blamed the lack of leadership after losing stars like Duggan, Dylan Horton and Steve Avila. TCU believes it replaced the talent, but has it organically created new leaders? We’ll find out. If not, the Horned Frogs are in for another bumpy ride in a tightly contested new-look Big 12. 

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