On Saturday, I heard one common refrain in the press box inside NRG Stadium during the Battle of the Piney Woods. “It feels like I’ve seen this game,” or “I watched this exact game last season.” Hearing that piqued my curiosity, so I started researching. Guess what I found out? Everyone did see the same game two years in a row. Well, mostly.

So, let’s dive into the statistics. In 2021, Stephen F. Austin was seemingly in control and a touchdown pass from Trae Self to Lawton Rikel with three seconds left in the third quarter gave the Lumberjacks a 20-6 lead heading into the fourth quarter.

The ‘Jacks held a 272-160 advantage in total yards over Sam Houston through three quarters, but SFA’s offense sputtered in the fourth quarter and only produced 39 yards while the Bearkats offense had 129 total yards and 15 points for the 21-20 victory.

How about the 2022 version of the rivalry? SFA held a slim 16-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The ‘Jacks had a 339-198 advantage in total yards through three quarters. However, the offense struggled in the fourth quarter, only producing 58 yards, while the Bearkats offense found life with 101 yards and a touchdown with 35 seconds remaining.

Combine the last two meetings, and SFA holds a 611-358 edge in total yards through the first three quarters. However, the fourth quarter tells a different story, with SHSU having a 230-97 yard advantage and a 22-0 edge in points.

Another interesting stat from that last two years' battle is SFA had seven drives in the fourth quarter, with five drives ending in a punt, one drive ending in a missed field goal, and another drive ending with a turnover. The ‘Jacks were 3-for-12 combined on third and fourth downs in those games.

In contrast, Sam Houston had six drives, with three ending in touchdowns, two finishing with a punt, and one drive ending in a turnover. The Kats were 5-of-11 on third and fourth downs in the last two games against SFA.

Yes, Sam Houston had a facemask penalty in 2021 to keep its game-winning drive alive and a personal foul for a hit on a defenseless receiver this year that gave the Kats a first down instead of facing a fourth and nine from their own 23-yard line. The WAC released a statement Tuesday calling the crucial penalty a “misadministration.”

Instead, the stats show a story of how Sam Houston is a team that has learned how to finish under K.C. Keeler while SFA has greatly improved under Colby Carthel yet is still learning how to close out games, which is the next step for the ‘Jacks program.

Avoiding turnovers

This week, we are using Pro Football Focus premium statistics to determine which FCS quarterbacks have been the best at limiting turnovers this season. PFF has a stat titled “TWP,” which stands for Turnover Worthy Plays and consists of a pass with a high percentage chance of being intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.

The average TWP among Texas teams is 6.5, and the quarterbacks that are best at limiting turnover worthy plays thus far is Texas A&M-Commerce, with a total of three TWPs on 120 dropbacks.

Houston Christian is second with four TWPs on 128 dropbacks, while Lamar, Sam Houston, and Texas Southern are slightly below average with six TWPs. Prairie View A&M and Tarleton have seven apiece, with Abilene Christian and UIW following with eight TWPs. SFA has struggled the most in this category, with 10 TWPs on 184 dropbacks this season. 

When narrowing the field to quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, the best is Justin Fomby (4 TWPs on 128 dropbacks), followed by Andrew Body (6-of-122), Beau Allen (7-of-144), Maverick McIvor (8-of-136), and Trae Selt (9-of-146).

Southland Conference

• Pro Football Focus overall ratings through Week 5: UIW 90.4, A&M-Commerce 87.9, Lamar 66.6, HCU 61.6

• Pro Football Focus offense ratings through Week 5: UIW 77.6, A&M-Commerce 72.9, Lamar 58.9, HCU 52.2

• Pro Football Focus defense ratings through Week 5: A&M-Commerce 87.3, UIW 86.7, HCU 71.7, Lamar 71.1

• Massey rankings for Southland with national rank in parenthesis: UIW (14), SLU (23), McNeese (81), A&M-Commerce (88), Nicholls (95), NSU (98), Lamar (116)

• Massey Ratings Southland strength of schedule rank: SLU 27, UIW 28, Nicholls 34, McNeese 55, Lamar 84, HCU 87, NSU 90, A&M-Commerce 119

• HCU’s Rodney Dansby was named Defensive Player of the Week, and Lamar RB/KR Damashja Harris was the recipient of the Special Teams Player of the Week.

Southwestern Athletic Conference

• Fox 26 KRIV Sports Director Mark Berman reported that Dr. Donald Reed is no longer the PVAMU Athletics Director. “I was asked to step down or made to step down,” Reed said in a statement posted by Berman. PVAMU President Dr. Ruth Simmons released a statement that read, “I had been hearing about the fact that things were not functioning well in the department and it was causing severe problems for our athletes, culminating two weeks ago when the football team arrived at the airport, and there was no plane to take them to the game.”

• Pro Football Focus overall ratings through Week 5: PVAMU 70.9, TSU 69.4

• Pro Football Focus offense ratings through Week 5: TSU 62.5, PVAMU 57.6

• Pro Football Focus defense ratings through Week 5: PVAMU 79.5, TSU 71.7

• Massey rankings for SWAC West Division with national rank in parenthesis: PVAMU (59), Alcorn (62), Southern (78), TSU (101), Grambling (111), UAPB (121)

• Massey Ratings SWAC West Division strength of schedule rank: TSU 72, Alcorn 76, Grambling 91, PVAMU 96, Southern 106, UAPB 122

Western Athletic Conference

• Sam Houston gained a commitment from 2023 DL Jayden Gaines of Houston Westside. Gaines held offers from Army, Marshall, North Texas, Washington State, Wyoming, Alcorn State, Houston Christian, and Prairie View A&M.

• Pro Football Focus overall ratings through Week 5: Tarleton 93, SFA 84, ACU 83.6, Sam Houston 74.6

• Pro Football Focus offense ratings through Week 5: Tarleton 89.5, ACU 71.2, SFA 67.8, Sam Houston 56.3

• Pro Football Focus defense ratings through Week 5: Sam Houston 87.2, ACU 83.9, SFA 83.5, Tarleton 74.4

• Massey rankings for WAC with national rank in parenthesis: Sam Houston (27), ACU (37), Southern Utah (49), SFA (51), Tarleton (55), Utah Tech (99)

• Massey Ratings WAC strength of schedule rank: Sam Houston 26, SFA 58, Southern Utah 62, Utah Tech 71, ACU 94, Tarleton 100

• Players from Texas schools swept the WAC Player of the Week honors, with ACU’s Jermiah Dobbins earning the offensive recognition, SFA DB Myles Heard taking the defensive award, and Sam Houston’s Donovan Adkins being the special teams recipient.

Lone Star Conference

• Massey rankings for LSC with national rank in parenthesis: Angelo State (5), Central Washington (26), Texas A&M-Kingsville (33), West Texas A&M (34), Midwestern State (54), UTPB (66), Western N.M. (70), Western Oregon (104), Eastern N.M. (110), Simon Fraser (153)

• Massey Ratings LSC strength of schedule rank: SFU 24, ASU 25, ENMU 33, UTPB 34, WT 40, CWU 43, ENMU 45, WOU 47, MSU 75, A&M-Kingsville 143

• Gage Urias of WT was named the conference’s Special Teams Player of the Week after setting a new program record with five field goals, including the game-winner with four seconds remaining against UTPB.

American Southwest Conference

• Massey rankings for ASC with national rank in parenthesis: Mary Hardin-Baylor (3), Hardin-Simmons (9), Howard Payne (38), East Texas Baptist (75), Sul Ross State (97), Southwestern (108), Texas Lutheran (124), McMurry (159), Austin College (181)

• Massey Ratings ASC strength of schedule rank: UMHB 7, HSU 17, ETBU 39, SRSU 40, Southwestern 48, McMurry 49, HPU 50, TLU 60, Austin 71

• Otis Lanier of HPU (Offensive), ETBU LB Joey Johnson (Defensive), and UMHB K Anthony Avila (Special Teams) earned their second ASC weekly honor this season.

Southern Athletic Association

• Massey rankings for SAA with national rank in parenthesis: Trinity (11), Birmingham Southern (42), Berry (66), Centre (73), Millsaps (128), Hendrix (141), Rhodes (143), Sewanee (178)

• Massey Ratings SAA strength of schedule rank: Berry 38, Trinity 47, Hendrix 52, BSC 75, Millsaps 79, Centre 112, Rhodes 170, Sewanee 205

Sooner Athletic Conference

• Massey rankings for SAC with national rank in parenthesis: Ottawa (Ariz) (25), Texas Wesleyan (27), Langston (43), Arizona Christian (51), SAGU (63), Louisiana Christian (75), Oklahoma Panhandle State (78), Wayland Baptist (86), Texas College (97)

• Massey Ratings SAC strength of schedule rank: LCU 58, ACU 64, OUAZ 65, TxWes 66, SAGU 81, WBU 90, OPSU 93, TC 95, Langston 96

Southwestern Junior College Football Conference

• Massey rankings for SWJCFC with national rank in parenthesis: New Mexico Military Institute (2), Trinity Valley (9), Navarro (10), Kilgore (11), Tyler (17), Blinn (20), Cisco (25), Northeastern Oklahoma A&M (26)

• Massey Ratings SWJCFC strength of schedule rank: NMMI 5, Navarro 7, TVCC 8, NEO 10, Blinn 12, Tyler 13, Kilgore 14, Cisco 18