It's the fourth week of the 2022 Texas high school football season, with 700+ games scattered across the state. There are favorites...but who could spring the upset?
Using DCTF's computer projections, Ishmael Johnson and Greg Tepper identify four teams that could pull the upset in Week 5.
Canyon over Midland Greenwood
Greenwood favored by 8
It's rare to see a 2-2 team favored over a 4-0 squad, but that's what we've got here. The computer really likes Greenwood, specifically because of last week, a dominant road victory over previously unbeaten Shallowater. But that's the first and only time the Rangers' offense has ignited like that this season, averaging just 20.6 points per game before last week's 43-point outburst. Canyon, on the other hand, has been pretty consistently excellent, as senior quarterback Derrek Clements paces a balanced attack that's coming off a heart-stopping win over previously unbeaten Amarillo Caprock. Much of your read on this game will depend on if you think last week's Greenwood offensive performance is the new norm, or a one-time spike. I think even on the road, Canyon's defense can hold down the Rangers and steal the victory. — Tepper
San Marcos over Eagle Pass
Eagle Pass favored by 14
San Marcos is currently in limbo waiting to hear the results of its appeal to the UIL over its pending two-year post-season ban. But the Rattlers are still playing tough, nonetheless. The past three weeks, John Walsh’s offense has put up 31, 41 and 65 points against solid competition. While Eagle Pass is unbeaten, I’d give the nod to San Marcos in terms of strength of schedule with a narrow one-point loss to San Antonio Wagner and a season-opening loss to Hutto. Don’t be surprised if Isaiah DeLeon and the Rattler offense gets going again this week as well. — Johnson
Georgetown over A&M Consolidated
A&M Consolidated favored by 6
District 11-5A Division I play kicks off with a critical matchup that should be for district seeding, and two teams coming off both an open date and their first loss of the season. Georgetown took its first L two weeks ago against state-ranked Liberty Hill, but put up some impressive offensive numbers (most notably 234 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns from Andrew Petter) before succumbing to the Slot-T's devilry. Meanwhile, Consol tumbled out of the state rankings after a baffling loss to Lufkin in which the Tigers failed to finish drives with any consistency. Georgetown's a pretty known commodity — a pretty big offense and a defense that could be categorized as fair. In many respects, Consol's a mystery — they have a win over a 1-3 Huntsville team, a win over a team from Mexico, and the Lufkin loss. Now they go on the road in a key district opener? Don't be surprised if the Eagles grab the win. — Tepper
Marble Falls over Fredericksburg
Fredericksburg favored by 12
As everyone knows, the Slot-T is the devil. It’s arguably the most difficult offense to gameplan against. Brian Herman’s brought the scheme to the Mustang program over the last few years and he’s taken Marble Falls from middling to a playoff threat. Aside from an odd blowout loss to Brownwood, the Slot-T has been churning this year. A one-touchdown loss to Kerrville Tivy last week shouldn’t dissuade people from thinking that Fredericksburg should be an easy favorite. — Johnson
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