Predicting 2022 win totals for Texas' Power Five programs

Courtesy of Aiden Shertzer/Texas A&M Athletics

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Why wait for sports books across the country to release win totals for the 2022 season? Dave Campbell’s Texas Football attempts to set the over/under for each of the 12 FBS teams in the Lone Star State, starting with the five Power Five programs. 

Texas A&M

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 9

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 8

Over or under? Over 

The schedule sets up well for Texas A&M, but questions linger at quarterback and along the defensive line. I feel confident that the young defensive linemen on campus, as well as the incoming freshman, are good enough to make the Wrecking Crew a strength of the team. My only concern is the passing game. A trip to Alabama feels like the only sure-fire loss. Every other game is winnable. Texas A&M looks more likely to end the season at 10-2 than 8-4, but 9-3 feels like the sweet spot. 

Texas 

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 8

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 5

Over or under? Under

Do you trust the Texas Longhorns with your hard-earned money? I sure don’t. Texas is undoubtedly talented enough to make a run at the Big 12 title in 2022 in year two under Steve Sarkisian in a way that Baylor surged in year two with Dave Aranda. Still, the past decade suggests a letdown is more likely than a pleasant surprise. We could easily wake up in December watching a 10-win Texas team, but I’d feel more confident hedging my bets until I saw the Longhorns improve in the trenches with my own eyes. 

Baylor

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 9

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 11

Over or under? Over 

A push is a copout, so I’ll lean towards the Bears overachieving for the second consecutive year because quarterback Blake Shapen offers an improvement in the passing game over the 2021 version of the Baylor offense. It’ll be tough to replace the production at running back and multiple NFL draft picks on defense. The schedule also features road games against BYU, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. This one is tough. 

Texas Tech

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 6

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 6

Over or under? Under 

Count me in the camp that believes in the long-term success of the Red Raiders under first-year head coach Joey McGuire, but I’m not sure I’m willing to bet on it happening in year one. The Red Raiders host a Houston program that could run the table in 2022. The out-of-conference schedule also features a trip to North Carolina State. Road games against Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU are tough wins. 

TCU

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 7

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 5

Over or under? Under 

TCU is an interesting case study in first year coaching success. The Horned Frogs return plenty of experienced talent, at least on paper. Quarterback Max Duggan and a solid group of receivers and offensive linemen return. The defense can only improve from the 2021 season, and new head coach Sonny Dykes knows how to win. However, the backend of the regular season schedule includes a four-game stretch with games at Texas and Baylor and at home against Texas Tech and Iowa State. Dykes’ SMU teams struggled to close seasons with wins. 

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