Spring football begins in earnest next week when colleges across the state return from spring break. A few programs began work a week prior to spring break, while others dust off the pads beginning on March 21. Spring games are littered throughout April with the season set to start the first week of September. 

The 2022 season is an intriguing one inside the state of Texas. We gave a look to the Power Five programs earlier in the week. Now, the attention shifts to a strong G5 crop of contenders. The Houston Cougars are a darkhorse to crash the College Football Playoff party in 2022. UTSA is coming off its first conference championship in football. UTEP made a bowl game. Texas State and Rice hope to reach a bowl in 2022. 

But what is the best and worst that can happen in 2022? 

UTSA Roadrunners 

2021 record: 12-2

Best case in 2022: The Roadrunners reached new heights in 2021 under the direction of second-year head coach Jeff Traylor. UTSA began the season 11-0, were ranked nationally for the first time, and won a Conference USA title in a thriller over Western Kentucky. Quarterback Frank Harris took a giant leap forward, as did edge rusher Clarence Hicks. Running back Sincere McCormick earned his second consecutive C-USA Offensive Player of the Year award and the defense made big plays in key moments. 

A C-USA championship is there for the taking in 2022 with the Roadrunners returning Harris, a trio of tremendous wide receivers, and four of their five starters on the offensive line from last year. A 11-0 start and a 12-2 finish feel unlikely, however, given the tests UTSA must pass in the first three weeks of the season in Houston, Texas, and Army. The best-case scenario for UTSA is a 2-1 start, a C-USA championship, and an elusive first-ever victory in a bowl game. 

Worst case in 2022: That brutal start to the 2022 season could easily derail momentum built from the conference championship in 2021. Sure, the Alamodome will be rocking when Houston visits in Week 1. But will that be true in Week 4 when Texas Southern visits if the Roadrunners are 1-2 or 0-3. A bad start and shrinking support could spiral UTSA into an average season, especially if injuries mount. Last year’s success is seen as an exception rather than the rule and UTSA limps into the AAC. 

Houston Cougars 

2021 record: 12-2

Best case in 2022: Let’s be clear: Houston possesses enough returning talent to make a run at an undefeated season and a trip to the College Football Playoffs. Expectations are that high in Third Ward, and for good reason. The Cougars went on an 11-game winning streak between a Week 1 loss to Texas Tech and the AAC championship game defeat to Cincinnati, a team that did break the glass ceiling for G5 programs to reach the Final Four. Houston can pull the same trick if the Cougars can go undefeated because that requires victories over UTSA, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati (most likely) in the AAC championship game. 

The optimism for the Cougars rests on an explosive offense and an opportunistic defense. Houston returns quarterback Clayton Tune, wide receiver Nathaniel Dell, running back Alton McCaskill, and offensive tackle Patrick Paul to the offense. The defense averaged four sacks a game in 2021. A 12-0 regular season puts Houston on the doorstep of history. No program in Texas has reached the College Football Playoff. 

Worst case in 2022: That bubble of excitement can easily pop if Houston is upset in Week 1 against UTSA. The Roadrunners have beaten a favored Houston team before, and that UTSA program wasn’t as good as the current. UTSA is at home and the Alamodome should be filled with nearly 35,000 fans. A loss at UTSA, and even at Texas Tech, could derail the lofty dreams in Houston and cause a letdown that bleeds into AAC play. Anything short of a return to the conference championship game should feel like a letdown, and an opportunity lost as the program readies for a move to the Big 12. 

SMU Mustangs 

2021 record: 8-4

Best case in 2022: Rhett Lashlee proves himself as one of the next-big-things as a head coach while signaling that SMU remains the top destination for DFW talent on the recruiting trail and in the transfer market. The Mustangs knock off former head coach Sonny Dykes on his return to Ford Stadium on Sept. 24, and that momentum allows SMU to make a run for the AAC championship. SMU also avoids the late season struggles that plagued the program during the Dykes era. Mordecai throws for nearly 5,000 yards, wins every award, and leaves a foundation for a young guy such as Preston Stone to carry the program forward. 

Worst case in 2022: Lashlee, and his staff, need time to adjust to new roles and new dynamics as the Mustangs take a step backwards in the pecking order of DFW recruiting. The offense sputters with quarterback controversy between Mordecai and Stone. The running game doesn’t recover from the loss of Ulysses Bentley IV, and the defense continues to allow big plays in the passing game. Late season woes continue for SMU and combine with a tough start to keep SMU from a bowl game. 

North Texas Mean Green

2021 record: 6-7

Best case in 2022: North Texas relied on one of the nation’s best rushing attacks to win the final five games of the regular season and reach a bowl game. The 2022 version of the Mean Green hope the ending to the 2021 season is a prelude of the start in 2022. North Texas gets a chance in Week 1 to shock the state with a home game against an SMU program under the direction of a first-year head coach. A win against the Mustangs sets new goals for North Texas. The team rides that momentum into Conference USA play to make a Cinderella run at the conference championship game and a 10-win season. 

Worst case in 2022: Quarterback play, and a few key losses along the defensive line, cost North Texas a strong start to the season, which leaves the Mean Green scrambling again to reach the six-win plateau needed to reach a bowl game. No DeAndre Torrey means the team takes a step back offensively and North Texas doesn’t reach a bowl game. Uncertainty surrounds the program with a move to the AAC on the horizon. 

UTEP Miners 

2021 record: 7-6

Best case in 2022: The Miners haven’t reached bowl games in consecutive years since 2004 and 2005. UTEP can accomplish that feat for the first time in 17 years with a six-win season in 2022. Dana Dimel’s program is quietly turning a corner in El Paso. UTEP went winless in 2017. The Miners won two combined games in 2018 and 2019. That number grew in 2020, and then rose to seven wins in 2021. 

Gavin Hardison and the Miners ride a high-powered offense to Conference USA contention. UTEP starts the season 3-1 and easily reaches a bowl game. The defense is among the best units in the state thanks to Breon Hayward at linebacker and Praise Amaewhule along the defensive line. 

Worst case in 2022: UTEP stumbles early in the season without its top three wide receivers from last year, which causes upset losses to either New Mexico or New Mexico State. A poor start to the season makes reaching a bowl game nearly impossible in a hotly contested C-USA. The Miners miss out on a bowl game as the program loses any remaining steam heading into a new-look C-USA without programs such as UTSA, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, and Marshall. 

Rice Owls

2021 record: 4-8

Best case in 2022: The Owls were two overtime losses away from six wins and a bowl bid. Rice pulls that off in 2022 thanks to consistency at quarterback and an improving defense. Mike Bloomgren’s program finds a way to upset one of USC, Louisiana, or Houston and couples that with a win over McNeese State to enter C-USA play at 2-2. Four conference wins are easily reached by an Owls team led by Jake Bailey on offense and Gabe Taylor and Ikenna Enechukwu on defense. Rice can manage seven or eight wins with a strong start in a C-USA that doesn’t possess much talent separation from the top and the bottom of the standings. 

Worst case in 2022: Rice’s bowl drought grows to eight seasons. The last time the Owls reached the postseason was in 2014. Worst-case for Rice includes the continuation of losses in close games. More injuries at quarterback causes the carosel to continue at the position for the Owls, and the defense doesn’t take any strides forward without Elijah Garcia dominating the middle of the defensive line. The four-win season of 2021 looks good in comparison to the struggles of 2022 thanks to an out-of-conference slate that virtually guarantees Rice starts 1-3 at best. 

Texas State Bobcats 

2021 record: 4-8

Best case in 2022: The Jake Spavital experiment finally pays off in San Marcos thanks to better play at quarterback and an improved roster built through the transfer portal rather than the recruiting trail. A balanced, high-powered attack on offense coupled with a turnover-inducing defense puts Texas State in its first-ever bowl game. Texas State moved up to FBS over a decade ago and weren’t awarded bowl bids in the two years the Bobcats reached eligibility (2013, 2014). Texas State wins at least six games for the first time since 2014.  

Worst case in 2022: The bowl drought continues for Texas State as it fails to win more than four games for the seventh consecutive season. Inconsistent quarterback play continues to plague Spavital, who can’t fully use his entire playbook thanks to the inefficiencies. The defense continues to struggle while the fans and admin starts to look for a new head coach to bring success to San Marcos.