After losing its two biggest members, the Big 12 is in a precarious position. The remaining eight schools are left looking for safer waters. 

For the first time since the Southwest Conference was formed in 1915, Baylor will not share a conference with the Texas Longhorns. The pair have played 110 times as major college football programs. Suddenly, the Bears’ place in the sport is in question. 

As the Bears enter pseudo-free agency, here’s where Baylor stands and how the next few months could shake out.

The Good

Outside of the the two departing schools – and honestly, alongside them – Baylor has been perhaps the most competitive program in the conference across all sports. In addition to a pair of Big 12 titles and a Big 12 championship game appearance in 2019, the Bears are fresh off a men’s basketball national championship and have three women’s basketball titles since 2005. The volleyball and tennis teams are nationally competitive. Just this year, Baylor’s men’s programs finished No. 4 in the Capital One Cup. 

All that to say, Baylor has as attractive an on-field product as any program in America. Certainly the football team has settled below national title caliber, but strong organization and development has still left the Bears knocking on the College Football Playoff’s door on multiple occasions. In fact, the Bears would have a pair of playoff appearances to its name had the 12-team expansion started in 2014. 

For a league like the Pac-12, adding programs with legitimate football and basketball pedigree should be a priority. Baylor brings that in spades, even as its football program is in the midst of a rebuild. Baylor can also deliver the coveted Texas recruiting grounds as a school right in the middle of the Dallas, Austin and Houston metros, not to mention easy access to East and West Texas. 

Additionally, Baylor has shown time and time again that it is financially invested in competing in athletics at the highest level. While salary and budget information is not public, Baylor’s investment is believed to be among the highest in the Big 12 – and the school has the coaching salaries and facilities to prove it. Alignment from university leadership to athletic department to on-field product is in a tremendous place. 

The Bad

Baylor has been a highly competitive athletic program. For the purposes of realignment, that’s an afterthought at best. Competitive sports doesn’t rule the day – brand does. 

For how great Baylor has been on the field, it is still a private religious school in the Waco television market. Its 17,000 students makes Baylor one of the bigger private schools nationally, but nowhere near the top line of behemoths. Being in Texas is a blessing from a recruiting perspective, but still means that the Bears are competing with Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech for eyeballs, not to mention professional sports in every market. 

After earning a trip to the Sugar Bowl following the 2019 season, new head coach Dave Aranda has plenty to prove heading into 2021. It’s encouraging to see that Matt Rhule was able to get the Bears all the way to Big 12 title contention once again, but will it happen a third time? 

One final note: We can’t forget how recently Baylor was at the center of college football for all the wrong reasons. While the 2016 Title IX scandal won’t necessarily keep Baylor out of major college sports alone, it surely impacts Baylor’s reputation as other conferences consider its inclusion. 

Bottom Line

Let’s talk about worst-case scenarios. There is absolutely a world where the Big 12 collapses and Baylor’s best life-raft is taking a spot in The American. While The American is an outstanding football conference, its annual conference payout is less than a quarter of what Baylor receives from the Big 12. 

Certainly, the Bears will look to the Pac-12. The downside? The Pac-12 admitted that it was uninterested in adding private religious schools in the past. New Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff could change that policy, but it’s hard to know his thought process. Additionally, it’s fair to ask whether Baylor – or any of the former Big 12 schools – would add enough tangible financial value to the league. 

The one thing Baylor could add to the Pac-12 is consistent national competitiveness across the major revenue sports, which has been a real issue. Still, will that value add more than $30 million to the league’s bottom line? I seriously doubt it. 

Of course, the Big 12 could come roaring back, add a couple of high-profile Group of Five institutions and head into the future. If the Pac-12 isn’t on the horizon – or any other power conference for that matter – Baylor should push hard for a Power Five-level Big 12 expansion. Being a part of that league would still give the Bears a fantastic shot at pushing for the College Football Playoff year-in and year-out heading forward, even if it's for far less money. 

Baylor basketball’s national prominence ensures that the athletic department is at little risk of falling off of the national stage. Only Texas has more than Baylor's 88 Big 12 championships across all sports. Even a nightmare scenario likely sees Baylor doubling down on Scott Drew and basketball success long term. But until the game of musical chairs finally comes to a close, Baylor fans shouldn’t feel comfortable.