Texas and Oklahoma officially notified the Big 12 that they will leave the Big 12 once their grant of rights with the conference is up. 

Now, we’re separating fact and fiction about what this move means both for now and the future. 

Why did Texas, Oklahoma want to leave? 

For Texas, the last decade has been a walk of shame. This was the worst decade of Texas football by orders of magnitude. Maybe Steve Sarkisian could have turned the tide – and maybe he can in the SEC – but something needed to change. Maybe that something was the money and advantage of being in the SEC. 

On Oklahoma’s side, the reasoning is likely a little different. It’s no secret that fans have been unhappy with the FOX deal often putting the Sooners in their marquee game – at noon. That has a real impact on money and impact on the Norman community. Additionally, Oklahoma certainly was branded in recruiting as a Big 12 school, which at times pulled them out of the top tier of recruiting. Having the SEC logo on their jerseys should help squash some of the trepidation by top athletes. 

Now let's be frank, the SEC and Big Ten went forward with the idea that when the league as a whole is strong, every school is stronger. The Big 12 was always propped up by the whims of Texas and Oklahoma. It's hard to pretend those schools are blameless in the other eight being disadvantaged when it's largely how the league was set up. 

For both schools, the money is an obvious draw. It would be silly to ignore that. While the Big 12 was a strong conference, the SEC also gives these schools far more premium home games than playing in their previous league. It also doesn’t hurt that as college football goes into its next form, it can’t hurt to align yourself with the Alabamas, Georgias and Greg Sankeys of the world – the power brokers who will shape the future of the sport. 

Is the next step a college football “Super League?” Who knows, but it can’t hurt to be aligned with the SEC if that happens. 

Why now? 

Simply put, the Houston Chronicle’s great reporting broke open this story and turbocharged everyone else’s plans. Without the news becoming public, it’s possible that Texas and Oklahoma would have waited perhaps until next year before dropping this news and starting the conversation. 

According to reports, these schools have been backchanneling with the SEC for months at this point without leaks. In addition to the obvious competitive advantages of the SEC, the COVID-19 pandemic’s financial impact also likely made the possibility of reinforcing the already rich programs with another money wave was an obvious draw. 

When will this happen? 

When Texas travels to Arkansas this September, don’t worry, it won’t suddenly become a conference game. At this point, Texas and Oklahoma are locked into their grant of rights until the end of the 2024-25 school year. To get out early would cost tens of millions of dollars – and both the Sooners and Longhorns have intimated that they aren’t interested in paying at this time. 

Instead, Texas and Oklahoma will likely gamble that their announcement will put the Big 12 in a precarious enough position that the eight other schools will scramble for calmer waters. That could lead to the Big 12 imploding – and get everyone out of their buyouts. 

At the same time, don’t doubt the money cannon at Texas. They might decide $76 million is nothing and drop a check anyway. 

Another thing to remember – Texas and Oklahoma have not been offered spots in the SEC as yet. All that is official at time of publication is that the schools will leave the Big 12. There are still several steps left to cross. 

How will this impact Texas, Texas A&M? 

Without question, a huge part of this decision was Texas looking across the state and seeing the Aggies surpass them in virtually every way over the past decade. Texas A&M went from a middling Big 12 squad to one of the top national powers over the course of years. Texas wanted in on that advantage. 

With a move to the SEC, Texas now can add just another arrow to its recruiting pitch. That does not mean that the Longhorns will suddenly organize itself top-to-bottom as effectively as Texas A&M has done over the past decade, but the biggest head-to-head advantage is gone. 

Texas A&M has already expressed its displeasure with the decision. When the vote comes up in the SEC meetings for the new schools to get added to the league, Texas A&M will almost certainly vote no. The Aggies still have plenty to sell, even if their pitch of being the only SEC team in Texas goes away. It would be foolish to think that adding the state’s flagship program to the conference wouldn’t have an impact.

What does this mean for the Longhorn Network? 

ESPN and television contracts certainly played a role in this movement. The move will centralize Texas and Oklahoma as fully ESPN-branded schools heading forward. FOX is one of the biggest losers of the deal. 

Without question, LHN has been a headache. For how big Texas is, it’s clear now that maintaining a whole network based on one school might have been too optimistic a venture. Now, the LHN contract will likely fold into the SEC Network. Expect to see existing LHN inventory and facilities used by the SEC Network heading forward, especially when featuring the western schools. The current SEC Network facilities are in Charlotte. 

What options should the Big 12 schools pursue? 

I wrote last week about one possibility – aggressive expansion. If the Big 12 adds the top layer of the Group of Five, and steals the top of the AAC, it would potentially allow the league to carry on as a Power Five autonomy conference. I identified Houston, SMU, Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF as obvious targets. 

At the same time, the eight remaining institutions should check out their options. If Kansas can join the stability of the Big Ten, it would be silly not to. If the Pac-12 can make a highly competitive offer for the Texas schools, cool. It was previously a concern that the Pac-12 preferred not to take religious schools, and both Baylor and TCU are on the small end of Power Five schools. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are options, but are they difference-makers on or off the field in that league? Who knows. 

I personally am skeptical that the other leagues will certainly throw the remaining Big 12 schools a life raft. This kind of new-look Big 12 could be a way to salvage the future and remain a consensus top-five league. 

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby is quite literally fighting for his job. Will he step up to the plate? The future of Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech as major football programs might depend on it. Don’t get me wrong, these schools are big, successful and rich enough that they could still be New Year’s Six bowl contenders from the AAC, but the money difference is vast. 

What does it mean for Texas high school football? 

It’s a mixed bag. Certainly, it’s a great thing that more players will get national opportunities. Texas is likely to become an SEC-dominated recruiting state with players not just leaving for Texas A&M and LSU, but for South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky with relative consistency. 

That said, that will also mean that a much higher percentage of Texas high school players won’t play college football in Texas. The Big 12 collapsing would mean that most of the collegiate options in the best high school state in America would be a step behind – and that would be a real shame. 

Texas high school football players playing close to their families and friends is good for the sport. The more Friday Night Lights is kicked aside for recruiting exposure, the worse. 

How will the move impact other conferences? 

Unless we can get into the head of the other conference commissioners, it’s hard to know. One way or another, The American is going to reach a breaking point – either they’ll eat up some Big 12 schools or get eaten. The Mountain West could be in a similar boat, depending on what the Big 12 does next. And when it comes to how it will impact the lower levels, it’s hard to know. Remember, the collapse of the Big East in the early 2010s changed everything. 

Perhaps the most important person in all this will be new Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff. Since he doesn’t come from the college football world, it’s impossible to tell what his plan for the conference will be. If he doesn’t view expanding into Central Time as a central part of growing the league, then the impact of this on the Pac-12 could be minimal. 

The last part to consider is the political weight of the SEC. I had a friend tell me that Texas and Oklahoma joining would set off an arms race among other conferences. I respectfully disagree – the war is over. The SEC won. Now, it’s going to be up to the other conferences to see if anyone can get over the disadvantages enough to compete with those schools for the top. But without question, the SEC has a 10-mile head start on anyone else into perpetuity.