The 2021 season is still months away, but we’re ready to look ahead to the best of 2021. We went through spots 11-38 earlier, and now we enter the top 10. 

While many of the nonconference games across the state feature games that will likely end in bloodbaths, our top 10 list has almost exclusively games that could go 50/50. Three of the games feature Power Five teams going up against Power Five opponents – but all of the top four are P5 vs. Group of Five games that could go the distance. 

Nonconference games can’t make a season, but they can surely break one. When picking our favorite games of the year, the games that could change everything rose to the top of our list. 

Here is how we rank the top 10 Texas FBS nonconference games of 2021.

10. TCU vs. California

Date: Sept. 11
Location: Amon Carter Stadium
Records: TCU (6-4, 5-4), California (1-3, 1-3)

All of us can only pray that the mayhem of the Cheez-It Bowl cometh once again. More realistically, this will be an important moment for the Horned Frogs to step up and put away an intriguing opponent while prepping for the regular season. 

The Golden Bears played just four games in 2020 because of COVID-19 restrictions, so take the record with a grain of salt. Quarterback Chase Garbers was good when he played and is back for another year. The defense should be extra salty. Watch out for Bears.

9. Texas A&M at Colorado

Date: Sept. 11
Location: Mile High Stadium
Records: Texas A&M (9-1, 8-1), Colorado (4-1, 3-1)

The Aggies have a manageable path to conference play, but the former Big 12 conference-mate Colorado will provide an interesting challenge. The Buffaloes had an intriguing first season under first-year head coach Karl Dorrell, and former Bishop Lynch standout Jarek Broussard showed some big moves at tailback. 

The Aggies will beat Colorado, but going on the road and facing off against a spicy Colorado running back will put the defense to the test right away. Plus, for Texas A&M fans, the opportunity to travel west and see one of the most beautiful states in the nation will be a draw.

8. UTEP at New Mexico State

Date: Aug. 28
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium
Records: UTEP (3-5, 0-4), New Mexico State (1-1)

The Battle of I-10 was moved up to Week Zero, which could give one of the state’s fiercest rivalries a national stage. The Miners showed some real promise after crushing ULM and winning three games for the first time since 2015. New Mexico State effectively didn’t play last season. 

UTEP has as manageable a schedule as it will ever field, including matchups with two rebuilding New Mexico squads and a conference opener against an Old Dominion team that didn’t play in 2020. There’s no excuse, UTEP has to win now, and it has to start with this game.

7. Baylor vs. BYU

Date: Oct. 16
Location: McLane Stadium
Records: Baylor (2-7, 2-7), BYU (11-1)

Last season, the Cougars were a national title contender while Baylor finished well below .500. Well, the Bears went and stole BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and offensive line coach Eric Mateos to try and bring some of the excitement to Waco. 

This isn’t the same BYU squad that squashed its competition across a historic season, but the Cougars still have plenty of talent. This will be a great opportunity for the Bears to learn whether the new offense is coming together – and what the ceiling for this Baylor team will be.

6. North Texas at Missouri

Date: Oct. 9
Location: Memorial Stadium
Records: North Texas (4-6, 3-4), Missouri (5-5, 5-5)

Call this one the TFT Bowl. Ashley Pickle’s Mean Green face up against Greg Tepper’s Mizzou Tigers in Columbia. Granted, we don’t expect UNT will be able to keep up with the SEC opponent, but it will be a great opportunity for things to get feisty. 

By this point, UNT will have its quarterback situation worked out between Austin Aune and Jace Ruder, so this should be a UNT offense that’s fully operational. Seth Littrell will face an intriguing opponent in former NFL head coach Steve Wilks at defensive coordinator – can the Mean Green win the chess match on that side?

5. Texas at Arkansas

Date: Sept. 11
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Records: Texas (7-3, 5-3), Arkansas (3-7, 3-7)

If you can’t play the one former rival from the Southwest Conference that hates you, might as well play the other. To older Arkansas fans, the Texas Longhorns are supervillains, and the Week 2 matchup in Fayetteville will be a Super Bowl of sorts. 

The Longhorns come to Arkansas after a tough Week 1 matchup against Louisiana, so getting an SEC win will be critical. Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian has experience coaching against these Razorbacks from his time in the SEC; we’ll see very quickly how well it translates.

4. UTSA at Illinois

Date: Sept. 4
Location: Memorial Stadium
Records: UTSA (7-5, 5-2), Illinois (2-6, 1-5)

In many ways, I think UTSA can take its season to another level by winning this game convincingly. This is far from the best iteration of Illinois with first-year coach Bret Bielema calling the shots, but it doesn’t matter. Going on the road and dominating a Big Ten foe means something. 

UTSA is poised to do something really special after a historic 7-5 season. We projected the Roadrunners to push for the top of Conference USA and compete for double-digit wins. If UTSA does it, a passing complement needs to emerge next to Sincere McCormick. But with all the talent back, there’s no reason the Roadrunners can’t shock the world.

3. Texas vs. Louisiana

Date: Sept. 4
Location: Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium
Records: Texas (7-3, 5-3), Louisiana (10-1, 7-1)

There’s certainly an argument for the Arkansas matchup to be the headliner on Texas’ nonconference slate, but I just enjoy this matchup too much. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 21-4 over the past two seasons, by far the best stretch in program history. To make it even better, Louisiana ranks No. 1 nationally in returning production – number one! 

This is as treacherous a path for the Longhorns to traverse in their first ever game under Steve Sarkisian as humanly possible. I expect UT will be slightly favored, but Louisiana would love nothing more than to play spoiler in Sark’s debut. The anticipation will be off the charts. 

2. TCU vs. SMU

Date: Sept. 25
Location: Amon Carter Stadium
Records: TCU (6-4, 5-4), SMU (7-3, 4-3)

I’m ready to say it: The Battle for the Iron Skillet is the state’s premier nonconference rivalry. Sure, the Mustangs play in the AAC, but SMU is a program that is rolling in the right direction. Tanner Mordecai and Preston Stone will compete to take over the reins, but the offense is supercharged regardless. 

On the other side, TCU has its best team since 2017 and is ready to compete once again for a Big 12 championship game. The Horned Frogs have a third-year starting quarterback and finally have the defensive ends to make opponents pay. The Frogs will be heavy favorites, but anything can happen.

1. Texas Tech vs. Houston

Date: Sept. 4
Location: NRG Stadium
Records: Texas Tech (4-6, 3-6), Houston (3-5, 3-3)

In many ways, this is the most important game of the year for both of these teams. To comfortably make a bowl game, Texas Tech needs to win. To break out of mediocrity and launch themselves into the AAC discussion, Houston needs to win. 

Texas Tech comes into the matchup with a brand new quarterback, while Houston jumps in with a number of key transfers. We don’t really know what these two teams will look like when they take the field. Matt Wells and Dana Holgorsen were hired at the same time. One will leave NRG Stadium riding high, while the other will quickly be on the hot seat.