Picking every college football win total against Vegas

Courtesy of UTSA Football

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The DraftKings sportsbook released its first round of college football win totals, which included all 12 Texas FBS colleges. 

Unsurprisingly, Texas A&M led the way with an over/under set at 9.5. Houston, Texas and UTSA come up next with totals set at eight. The UTEP Miners are the only Texas team listed at under four wins. 

Alabama and Clemson led the way as the only teams with over/unders of 11.5,meaning that to win, both would have to post a perfect season. Ohio State and Oklahoma were close behind at 11. Georgia (10.5), Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, North Carolina (10) round out the only eight teams in double-figures. 

College football over/unders ask gamblers to bet on whether a team will finish over or under a specific record. So for example, if Air Force's over/under is set at 6.5, betters choose whether to put money on the program finishing with seven or more wins or six or less wins. 

Here's our early advice on every Texas college over/under, including Vegas' question of whether Texas A&M can get to double-digits. 

Baylor Bears: 5.5

The Bears head into year two of the Dave Aranda experiment with a new quarterback, new offensive coordinator and a new blocking scheme. However, this projection effectively assumes that Baylor simply replicates its 2-7 record with the benefit of nonconference games. Baylor's offense was as bad as we've ever seen last season, so even modest improvement should be enough that the defense can carry the Bears to a bowl game. 

DCTF Pick: Over

Houston Cougars: 8

We only have to get to the second listing before things get dicey. The Cougars are 7-13 over the past two seasons and haven't won more than eight games since Tom Herman took the Texas job. Year three should be the moment Dana Holgorsen can get the Cougars back under control – especially with the benefit of a handful of transfers. We'd probably have them at around eight wins, but going under is the more comfortable direction if we can't pick that. 

DCTF Pick: Under

North Texas Mean Green: 4

It feels bad to see UNT this low, but we get it. Seth Littrell's credibility is at an all-time low after back-to-back disappointing seasons and the Mean Green still have a wide open question mark at quarterback. Phil Bennett should be able to fix the defense enough to get back to a bowl game, but this is a pivotal year. 

DCTF Pick: Over

Rice Owls: 5.5

Picking the over here is projecting a Rice team that went 2-3 last season to make a bowl game. We really like the strides this program has made under head coach Mike Bloomgren, but it's a team trying to replace a few stars on both sides of the ball on the fly, not to mention a new quarterback and offensive system. We're playing it safe. Prove us wrong! 

DCTF Pick: Under

SMU Mustangs: 6

This line has us speechless. Has Vegas learned nothing? Do they believe that Shane Buechele was the only good player on the roster? What is going on? Yeah, SMU will take a small step back next year with a new quarterback. Also yes, Reggie Roberson, Delano Robinson, Ulysses Bentley, Grant Calcaterra and Rashee Rice still exist! 

DCTF Pick: Over

TCU Horned Frogs: 7

This is a fairly easy pick. The Frogs face SMU and Texas early, which could define their season. If TCU survives, this is a squad that can push for a Big 12 championship game appearance next season. With so much experience, this team will be much better than the last few years. 

DCTF Pick: Over

Texas Longhorns: 8

The first year of the Steve Sarkisian experience begins by hosting top 25 Louisiana, traveling to historic rival Arkansas, replacing a highly-touted quarterback and learning a new conference. The only guaranteed wins on the schedule are Kansas and Rice. There are just too many moving parts to feel comfortable picking fewer than four losses. 

DCTF Pick: Under

Texas A&M Aggies: 9.5

Texas A&M plays Alabama. Who the heck else is supposed to beat this Aggies' team next season? Not hitting 10 wins for the second time since 1998 would be a massive disappointment – and that ain't happening. 

DCTF Pick: Over

Texas State Bobcats: 4.5

The short answer is who the heck knows. The long answer: Jake Spavital took a big chance by adding double-digit transfers to a team that was far better than its record. It will either work out great or flame out spectacularly. We feel good about it. 

DCTF Pick: Over

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 4.5

Listen, Texas Tech hasn't been its best self over Matt Wells' first two seasons, but the consternation is a little much. If Texas Tech had nonconference games, it could have been in a bowl game last season. Now, the Red Raiders add highly-touted quarterback Tyler Shough and return every major defensive contributor? This feels like an easy pick. 

DCTF Pick: Over

UTEP Miners: 3

Whew. This pick makes perfect sense on the surface – UTEP has not won more than three games since 2016. At the same time, the schedule lines up in a way that the Miners had better win more than three games. In fact, there are as many as six or seven winnable games on the schedule. If UTEP hits the under, Dana Dimel is probably done in El Paso. 

DCTF Pick: Over

UTSA Roadrunners: 8

Listen, if you have to guess what we think about this, you need to read more DCTF content. The Roadrunners are the darlings of the Group of Five and we think UTSA can potentially challenge for a C-USA championship. Smash that over! 

DCTF Pick: Over

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